nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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You got like 7” on the 6z Euro.
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I’d take this and run.
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Through h83 on the 6z Euro, the 0.5” QPF line is inching towards 95 on the eastern side of the Beltway.
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It seems like the general 1-4” that has been consistently showing up on the models the last several days (ignoring ICON ofc) is coming into focus as we get under 72H. The Eastern Shore of MD and DE look to be the bullseye where 4-8”+ is becoming more likely. We’re within 48 hours from first flakes in western MD (and 60 hours for most of the area) so the finer details of amounts/etc will start getting worked out.
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Assume the 1-3/2-4 solutions will be reality. Easier to keep the expectations in check.
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I’d take that and run IMO.
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2-4” for most on the GFS. More out west and on the ES.
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It’s got the Friday HH snow. Breaks out early Friday morning in the far western areas. Friday afternoon/evening for most of the area.
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FYP
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I put RGEM up there with ICON in terms of useless models. Not discounting a potentially further east solution but they’re way down on the useful list for me.
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I gotta say that NAM run was fun…reminded me of the pure joy during the Jan 2016 tracking.
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I’m in the camp that even if H84 were the total accumulations, it’d be a great storm here. It’s not like we live on Tug Hill where we average 300” — a 3-6” event is fun. NAM suggests more to come though.
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IDGAF what the surface shows. I’d take this 500 look any day. But…the NAM.
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Not going to lie, having model runs to look forward is making working late tonight on some deliverables much more manageable. Trying to bang as much out as possible for the NAM (can't believe I just said that).
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I approve of that shot glass.
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Also Yellow’d for Day 5
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Did your lava lamp explode across your screen?
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A bit more falls Leesburg east after this (more as you head towards the ES)
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I actually thought that was a good run and I like the NS energy diving in as it was more potent. A few minor adjustments and it would have been even bigger. Considering we were starting at 0.0” and that run dropped 5” for I-95 through H90, thats a big win.
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There’s way more energy rounding the base of the trough at 84 vs 90 though. And 18z closes off at 90 (like 12z did at 96).
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Is that feature swinging down from Canada and phasing on the back end helping with the trough orientation? It seems its trending towards sharper/deeper and negative quicker. All things that will help us
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Geesh, just saw the NAM (lol). That ridge placement out west is basically perfect through Idaho.
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Apparently, people think we live on top of Mt Washington and scoff at anything less than 28".
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It's a combo of the NS vort and then upslope. The orographic lift will squeeze every drop of moisture out of that NS vort.
