nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I haven’t looked at the surface yet but through hour 30, the 500 depiction is looking good. Closed 500 low. Sharper trough. Neutral over MS River and has a bit of a negative tilt to it too as its heading east.
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Euro closing off at 500 so far…I like seeing that.
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I’m out through hour 9 on Pivotal.
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Just saw the better maps on Pivotal. Agree on the shift (its in NAM territory in terms of size of shift) and it makes me wonder if we’re not yet done with the adjustments on the UK heading into tomorrow’s 12z.
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On the Meteocentre maps only (not the ‘prettier’ maps yet), but UKMET took a big jump NW as well.
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It does seem GFS has been leading the way in terms of other models catching up to a more NW solution. I’m not saying the GFS (especially the crazy 00z depiction) is right, but the “oh lets 100% discount the GFS because its the GFS” mantra may not hold with this storm.
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Wrong thread @IronTy
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33% chance of 0” 33% chance of 1-3” 33% chance of 3-6”
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**Until the next storm that the GFS shows a foot of snow and this place lights up like a Christmas tree
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Cannot. Compute.
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Need that Bob Chill huge “oh my” emoji
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Meh. I could care less. It’s been an atrocious pattern so far…an inch of slush/sleet/etc is fine by me. Few put faith in this actually happening so whatever (if anything) falls, I’m fine with.
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Cut back off the north but bumped the 6”+ closer to DC.
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RGEM is a solid hit for the area. Pivotal precip maps shows sleet/mixing into DC (and south of there) but the column (per the sounding) is below freezing. 4” into DC, 1” into Baltimore on the Kuchera map.
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We just came off a December that had one of the worst weather patterns we could ask for with the insane SER. Anything that falls Monday will be good IMO.
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3k Kuchera. Lol at the jump north vs 18z. 6” line up to the southern part of the Beltway.
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3k also with the big jump NW like the 12k Snow line up to DC
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The <1” line was barely on the map last time. And always best for us when LWX is playing catch up vs adjusting downwards.
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Yep, allows the SS vort to amplify enough for us. It’s not a surprise looking at the 500 trend on the Euro that its slowly been correcting n/nw with the surface/precip.
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It’s hard to tell if his main issue is just the raw snowfall output or the actual evolution at 500/surface that the GFS is showing. He makes it seem (in the last image), that his main issue is verbatim trusting the 10:1 snowfall maps in this setup vs precip getting into the cities. ETA: Anyone trusting the 10:1 maps in this is fraught for disappointment IMO.
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I don’t know how to post the animation here but looping the last 6 runs of the Euro at 500 shows a definite adjustment on the Euro in slowing down the SS vort and actually closes it off at 500.
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Another bump like that at 0z and DC is in the 4-5” range.
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Also notice the 500 low is closed at hour 33 and 36 vs 12z. Always like to see that. Hopefully translates to a better surface depiction.
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I don’t hate this look on the GEFS for the threat on the 7th.
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50 degrees and absolutely pouring. Over 1.2” on the day.
