nj2va

Good summary by LWX for the storm possibility later this week. Model guidance begins to diverge a bit by Friday, but there has been a bit more of a consensus in the 12z cycle, at least in the deterministic runs. The ICON still hangs onto the solution that cuts off a low over TX and tracks northward into the Mid-Atlantic. However, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all have a similar situation where a strong upper trough digs into the central CONUS and moves across the area Friday into Saturday before becoming negatively tilted and lifting up the east coast. At the surface, all three have strong lows nearby, with the GFS being the most bullish by far. There remains a wide variety of solutions within the ensemble guidance however, so that is something to take into account as we monitor the trends in the coming days. At the very least, this is something we need to keep a close eye on. For the time being, it appears this would be more of a heavy rain and/or severe weather threat depending on the track of any potential surface low. Should these solutions verify, we would looking at a decent shot of cold advection on Saturday, along with upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front and strong wind gusts in the wake of the system. Temperatures will be highly dependent on what pattern ultimately unfolds, with ensemble guidance currently advertising a wide range of possible solutions.

We put up the Christmas decorations outside and inside today - waiting for the fresh garland to arrive from Costco to finish up decorating outside. I actually liked the chilly weather today for it - felt more festive and it was nice not sweating while doing it.

Ha, thought the same thing when I just checked it. It had been in the FROPA crowd but decided to shift back to the CMC/Euro camp. I’m rooting for a deepening low so the mountains cash in on upslope.

One for the ages

I think we have entered the rebuilding years.

You picked a good one to chase

The soundings in that band are nuts. Omegas+++++

Can you post links to your nest cams again?

Just incredible. Do you need to get up on your roof to clear any of it? Or is the wind helping to alleviate any issues there?

Don’t offend us on the Mid Atlantic board - he’s up in NJ in the NYC thread.

Agreed, or just play it on Monday night.

Wow, that’s epic. Love the pictures and videos.

Amazing photos @BuffaloWeather - what an epic event for you. Keep the photos coming!

Omg, 66” at Orchard Park? That’s insane. And that’s essentially in 24 hours?

Nice! Deep Creek has been cashing in today. Neighbor down the hill from us texted me and said he’s at 4” and counting. We’ll be there on Tuesday for Thanksgiving - keeping my eye on next Friday/weekend for snow.

Wisp getting rocked with SN+ https://www.wispresort.com/Wisp-Cam/

6z GEFS similar to the depiction that CAPE described above. NS energy that drops in from the Lakes and redevelops off the coast (almost has a Miller B look to it).

31 for the low. First freeze.

Nice comeback after the disaster start, but sucks coming up short. We can’t continue to sht the bed for half of a game.

I feel like reviews never go our way

Nice comeback by the Caps to tie it up. Let’s finish it! eta: wow, 5-4!

Straight up dumpster fire.

Hmm, you must be new here

This one is on the north side of Buffalo. Just started to flurry so will be fun to watch it ramp up quickly. Buffalo, NY | Elmwood Ave | Mr. Pizza | BuffaloWebcam.com | Live Webcams from Buffalo, New York USA