nj2va

I think you’ll like the HRRR (aside from not having your 0.2” by 8p)…4-5”. 7” in the very NW part of Frederick county.

00z HRRR says Winchester has 0.2” on the ground one minute from now…oops

It wasn’t supposed to start in DC until after midnight.

DC snow hole. It’s over.

Also shows right above the surface is below freezing so we’ll cool quickly in UHI.

Latest HRRR has snow breaking out inside the Beltway after 1a.

I’ve got a Davis VP2 at Deep Creek but I think I’m going to get the tempest for here after reading your post — I wanted to get something cheaper than the Davis for here since…let’s be honest….it’s usually 35/rain in winter anyways.

Rippin’ on the Wisp cameras

41/20. Surface temps will drop quickly as precip arrives.

No, it's licking a metal pole to see if its below freezing outside or not

Awesome, glad you're out there for this! We're home unfortunately. Enjoy this storm and post pictures!

26/15 on the weather station at Deep Creek. Radar showing returns but my cameras at the house not showing anything hitting the ground yet.

43 here in Alexandria. 26/16 per the weather station at Deep Creek.

15z HRRR looks great for Davis/Deep Creek. 12"+....great for the ski resorts. Fozz will have good time.

Spine of the Apps from Garrett down to Snowshoe will be a great spot, but especially Davis and Snowshoe.

Is that a haiku? Not sure I agree with Kuchera not being great -- I think its a good tool to use to evaluate but snowmaps (10:1, snow depth change, Kuchera) shouldn't be taken verbatim but rather evaluated as one piece of overall guidance.

So what you’re actually saying is trust the GFS more since Euro ticked west…that and Euro has a dry basis….

6z Euro 2-4” for the area, except far eastern and western areas.

LWX expanded the WSW to Garrett County (which makes sense based on guidance). URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 MDZ001-061645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220106T2000Z-220107T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0002.220106T2000Z-220107T1500Z/ Garrett- 334 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Northwest winds will increase and gust around 30 to 35 mph Friday morning. Wind chills around zero to -10 degrees are possible along the ridge tops Friday morning. * WHERE...Garrett County. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening commute and the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected this evening with snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour possible. Visibility will be reduced to below one half mile at times in snow and blowing snow.

Definitely! Bet its looking great

GFS coming in hot and heavy. Has 0.4” QPF in DC by 1a….lol

3k is looking better. Higher QPF across the board.

It looks like a uniform 0.2”-0.25” through most of the area (outside mountains and far eastern areas) with exception of NE MD with 0.1”+. With image:

Yeah, agree. At least we’ll have better than 10:1 ratios though.

Super long range 00z HRRR QPF map shows the banding potential the Twitter Mets highlighted earlier. This run of the HRRR puts one basically right along I-95. I’d take this run in a heartbeat.