nj2va

When it differed so much from every other 00z mesoscale guidance last night, I put extremely little confidence in what it showing for close in metro areas (it did seem to do well out west near Winchester advertising the 6”+ totals though). But in addition to the HRRR over reliance (which can swing from hour to hour to your point), there’s also the ‘panics’ that spread over radar hallucinations or whatever. Last night’s “snow hole” had been modeled all week (even by the GFS), yet the “lack of snow” by 10p was already causing people to poo poo and down play the event with things like…this feels like a grass topper but nothing more….because the radar and heavy banding to the NW. It’s nothing new and happens in every event, but you’d think we’d learn by now.

The radar loop looked impressive with that band….wish I could have stayed up for it.

Yes! The CAPE snowy cabin pic is back

So I take the hallucinations last night about the “snow hole” (which was modeled all week btw) were the wrong take? Looks like I missed some fun in the overnight….measured 2.6” of pure Colorado fluff. What a week of winter here! Over a foot of snow.

Yeah it overestimated the dry air I think. It kept pushing back start time in DC until 2-3a which was off. It’s correcting now probably.

The heavier returns quickly got me down to 32. Best snow growth yet.

Just enjoy what’s falling and don’t worry what you may not get.

Good burst going on right now. SN / 33. Cartopper. And beginning to stick to concrete in places.

Light snow. Temp down to 34. Breezy.

It does…low basically runs along the coast. Don’t really care verbatim that far out but basically next weekend through the rest of the month is ripe for event(s).

Flurries in Alexandria (North Ridge/Beverley Hills)! ETA: Legit light snow already

Light returns overhead but virga for now. Getting closer to first flakes.

Well if you’re going to twist my arm…..I guess I’ll pour one too

35/25 here. Trying to stay up for first flakes but not sure I’ll make it.

WSW expanded to the 81 corridor.

For DC, seems like we’re still on track for a post midnight start per guidance. Radar beginning to fill in.

37/24. On track for 2-4”.

The first part of your post is banworthy

That’s awesome…the mountains really need the snow this season. Enjoy it

You are agreeing with a post that says “this feels like a dusting on the grass” and then going with 1-3”. The vast majority of guidance has been a 1-3”/2-4” type event for the last four days…..

@dailylurker should be happy tonight he moved to Parrs Ridge

My oh my, how times have changed.

Without traffic - door to door its a bit under 2 hrs 50 mins. Worst part of the drive is the few minutes on the Beltway to get into MD and 270. After that, its usually smooth sailing, especially 68 which never has traffic unless there’s an accident. When we bought the house five years ago, we got it to rent out. But we quickly realized how much we enjoy being there (and get out there ~2 weekends/month plus longer trips around the holidays/summer) - so we’ve never rented it out since the thought of renting it to randoms and then using it a week later skeeves me out (YMMV). My stress level immediately declines the second we get there which is another reason why I love to get there. I think you’d really like a place in Canaan since I know you enjoy hiking/snow/breweries/etc - I’d imagine its probably under 3 hours from you too.

18z GFS was active AF next weekend through the following week. Lots of coastals/LPs flying around with plenty of cold air around. Yes, realize its an OP but shows the potential of that window.

As much as it sucks missing your first snow there, it was definitely the right call. You’ll have plenty more chances to see snow (and get there safely). And as least you’ll get snow here tonight. I’ve missed a few trips to Deep Creek for a storm and it was 36 and rain here.