When it differed so much from every other 00z mesoscale guidance last night, I put extremely little confidence in what it showing for close in metro areas (it did seem to do well out west near Winchester advertising the 6”+ totals though).
But in addition to the HRRR over reliance (which can swing from hour to hour to your point), there’s also the ‘panics’ that spread over radar hallucinations or whatever. Last night’s “snow hole” had been modeled all week (even by the GFS), yet the “lack of snow” by 10p was already causing people to poo poo and down play the event with things like…this feels like a grass topper but nothing more….because the radar and heavy banding to the NW. It’s nothing new and happens in every event, but you’d think we’d learn by now.