nj2va

I think 90 pages of that is snowchaser posting his forecast from the Weather Channel.

500 track shifted east which is a good thing. Took it over OH at 12z. Now its over western VA/WV.

Updated LWX discussion: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence increasing for a high impact winter storm Sunday into Monday... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" as an anomalous region of high pressure (1040+ mb)resides over the northeast. This will prime the local region with abundant cold air with many locations struggling to get above freezing Saturday afternoon. For the Sunday into Monday system, confidence is continuing to increase in an impactful storm over at least parts of the region. It is too early to speculate snow, ice, or rainfall amounts over the local region as we are still 4-5 days from the event and there are a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere that will be refined over the coming days. Saturday evening, there will be an ULL near the southeast US while an area of surface low pressure moves north in the parent trough through the southeast US. Behind this system is another ULL advecting out of Canada into the great lakes Sunday into Monday morning. This is resulting in the increasing confidence for a high impact winter storm. The eventual track, magnitude of WAA at the surface and aloft, along with other dynamical aspects will determine where the cold air remains and where the heaviest QPF falls. All precip types are expected across the region with this storm. The further west you go in the CWA, the greater the chance for all frozen precip. Ensemble guidance, deterministic guidance, and the overall synoptic pattern a plowable snowfall for many at this juncture. Continue to monitor weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast. It should be noted that depending on the ultimate track of the storm there could be a dry slot moving somewhere over the region, creating locally lower QPF amounts. A lot will change with this system over the next 4-5 days. Aside from the potential hazardous travel conditions due to wintry precipitation, strong winds may also impact the mountains and metros. Coastal flooding may also become an issue depending on the ultimate track of the low pressure system. A period of upslope mountain snow showers is also likely Monday into Tuesday as the low moves northeast.

You do your username proud!

Also, the other thing that models wouldn’t pick up on now (much more useful within 24-36H on the mesos) is the orographic enhancement in the mountains for precip.

That Euro run was perfect for us. 500/850/SLP all staying east helped and Euro is basically a Miller A vs GFS which looked more Miller B with a secondary LP in the OH valley which causes us to mix for a period of time before the transfer. These finer details will be worked out over the next few days but I’m rooting for that Euro 12z, personally.

I’d say too early for me to wager amounts but an inland track like the models are showing would hit Deep Creek pretty good with frozen. Depending on the track of the 500 and 850 lows, it could get us in the warm sector where we sleet but again, those details need to be worked out. The upslope with this strong of a system would also hit us good as the LP heads N or NE from our latitude. It looks to be a high impact event out there as of now.

500 track is just SE of DC (a line from RIC to PHL) which helps too.

I should go back to learning how to spell weather.

Sorry if this was already posted but 00z EPS shifted west pretty significantly compared to 18z, unsurprisingly. Lots of tracks that go over the Bay/Eastern Shore now. vs 18z

Yeah, I remember that a while back but it seems lately (at least when I’m paying attention), that’s not how it works now. But we’ll see!

UKMET is a pretty classic Miller A track. Savannah to Myrtle Beach to (north of) Wilmington to Norfolk to just east of Atlantic City.

Definitely seems to have moved away from the suppressed/OTS solutions. Clearly see that in the images above that jaydreb posted.

I can barely spell weather so I’m hardly the expert - but the NAO is an east-based -NAO so kind of bootleg block. I think that may be a factor plus the strength of the vort.

Upslope cranks for the mountains as the low pulls N/NE of the region. Good for the ski places.

I do not understand the “omg, the thread killed the storm” vibe here.

Nope, still a terrible model regardless of the epic snowstorm it just spit out. I trust the NAM more than the ICON.

982 up the Bay lol

Recon sampling the sw over the Pacific

At least we’re only an hour away from extrapolating the 84 hour NAM…

Yeah, 12z EPS was better vs 18z. I think its more likely this is suppressed or too far East/OTS than an I-81 runner. Clearly everything is on the table 5 days out.

Trough on 18z EPS is a bit broader so the MSLP is a bit east at 18z compared to 12z.

Getting held in place by the ‘ocean bomb cyclone storm of the century hide your kids hide your wife’ storm

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