nj2va

And here comes the wind. Just passed 0.6".

Just got the alert from my Tempest station that lightning is detected less than 3 miles away!

Flakes flying on the Ring cameras at our house in McHenry.

Great summary by LWX: Another disturbance embedded within the much larger upper level low will rotate in from the north on Friday. The steadiest and likely heaviest snow in the mountains will occur late Friday morning through Friday evening as low-level warm advection overlaps upslope flow intersecting the terrain. Snowfall rates may approach an inch per hour at times Friday afternoon. The snow on Friday will be a wetter snow as the column starts to warm. Some snow may also occur to the east of the mountains Friday morning, with the first snowflakes of the year possible in the DC and Baltimore metro areas. Temperatures will likely be too warm for accumulations along the I-95 corridor, but some minor accumulations may be possible along Parr`s ridge in north- central Maryland and in the Catoctins. Any snow to the east of the mountains should switch over to rain during the afternoon as temperatures warm. Precipitation will continue in the mountains through Friday night. As temperatures continue to warm, some of the lower elevations in the mountains may switch over to rain before ending, but the highest elevations (above 2500 feet) should stay all snow through the night. By the time all is said and done, 6-12 inches is expected along and west of the Allegheny Front, with isolated totals of 12-18 inches possible along the highest ridgetops. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Garrett, western Grant, western Pendleton and western Highland counties starting at 10 AM tomorrow. Those Warnings continue through Friday night. A Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect for western Mineral county from 10 AM tomorrow through 10 PM tomorrow night.

Glad you’re chasing there - I drive through there when taking the I-66/81 route to Deep Creek…great spot to be at 3,000 feet. Something that’s been ‘trending’ on the models that could keep totals on the lower end of the guidance range are surface temps. Euro and NAM actually flip above freezing overnight Friday into Saturday, from Garrett down to Canaan and Snowshoe. GFS is the ‘warmest’ of the models and raises temps the quickest.

6z Euro says that is certainly on the table Friday morning with even some mixing down into the cities. A nice way to kick off the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

Have fun and happy chasing, Snowshoe will do well in this setup - classic for them for maximize. There was that guy who used to post here that had a place out there and lived in Northern VA - can’t remember his username but wonder if he’ll be out there for it too.

Latest LWX and Pitt forecasts - both through 7a Saturday, some snow still to come after this. I don’t mind the orange 12”+ blob over our place.

Looks like the Canadian twins suggest some snow TV with possible light accumulations in northern MD.

Latest LWX discussion: Low clouds should hold strong through much of the day tomorrow, but it will remain mild, with high temperatures in the 60s for most. Later tomorrow through the remainder of the week, attention will turn to a potent system approaching from the north and west. A broad, deepening upper low will dive southeastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow. A prominent shortwave on the leading edge of the much broader upper low will move overhead tomorrow evening, driving a strong cold front through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers should develop to the west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon, and may strengthen into a squall line to the east of the Blue Ridge tomorrow evening. Any convection would be rather low topped in nature, but a few rumbles of thunder could be possible tomorrow evening. The wind field ahead of the line isn`t strong at all, so any gusts produced by the line would likely be sub-severe. However, there is a strong surge of wind within cold advection behind the front. Winds may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria for a few hours behind the front, especially along the ridgetops. Some showers may linger for a few hours behind the front, but should rapidly come to an end as conditions dry out during the second half of the night. There will be a lull in the precipitation Thursday morning as the first shortwave and its associated synoptic scale forcing for ascent lifts off to our northeast. Daytime heating will allow limited instability to develop within the boundary layer. As a result, snow showers will start to develop in the mountains within upslope flow during the afternoon hours and continue on and off through the night. The snow showers could be quite squally in nature during the afternoon and early evening hours, with instability extending up into the dendritic growth zone. Several inches of snow may be possible with this first round of snow. Winter Storm Watches go into effect along the Allegheny Front starting at 1 PM Thursday and continue through Saturday afternoon. To the east of the mountains, much of the day will remain dry, but a few mixed rain/snow/graupel showers may be possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will hold in the 30s in the mountains, with high temperatures in the 40s to near 50 further east. Latest LWX forecast through 7a Saturday (likely more snow to come for the mountains).

Thanks! Only thing is I wish it was easier to navigate on mobile.

Anyone use Pivotal as their paid model site? Thinking of using them this year.

Yep that was epic. If you’re truly looking to maximize, probably Snowshoe but IMO the distance isn’t worth the extra few inches of snow over a place like Canaan. If Wisp gets 10-12”, Canaan would probably get 14-16” in a setup like this - whereas Snowshoe could get 15-18” (not what I’m actually predicting just saying in general with these setups). Never rented in Canaan but found this https://canaanrealty.com also this option: https://www.canaanresort.com/resort/?gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD2oRLvAtp_j50yVzFzwqGLJWLL7X&gclid=Cj0KCQiAi_G5BhDXARIsAN5SX7opTmll1s5I8cvLdTbV_bNREnctTOG8AW00vpIq9rfku5le7hvvv0waAv7hEALw_wcB The hotel in the state park

Driving out around 3p Friday, crossing into the county on 68 should be night/day from Frostburg.

2 more Ovi goals but an apparent lower body injury. this team is rolling so far. Great chemistry.