I've found the HRRR to be pretty decent on this type of stuff in this short of a range (ie less than 12 hours out)
And yeah ..TN line locations will do best with this type of setup.
HRRR has been rock solid consistent in showing flip to snow along the TN border areas of NC by 6am with a rapid change over to the border counties by 9am. Then it's a quick few hours of snow before the flow sets up for the high peaks the rest of the day.
Here are the Kuchera and 10:1 maps. 3k Nam is very bullish on backside moisture swinging down through northern Al and then GA and then up through western NC. Basically around the base of the ULL. In my opinion I think elevations over 4k are good for 2+ inches while everyone else will struggle with surface temps for accumulations. We are getting closer to the wheel house range of the 3k NAM (inside 24hrs) so it can't be ignored despite the rest of the other models looking BLEH.
Yes indeed. GFS, FV3 and Euro all trended further south and show some lee low development with prolonged snow Friday night through most of Saturday. If this trend holds I'll be making a drive up from GA for one more snow.