Wannabehippie

The fall colors on trees are muted this year due to this drought. We definitely can use the rain, but it will be too late to make those changing colors pop. Looking at the forecast models it doesn't look like much rain is in store for NJ in the next 5-7 days. One system will move to the west, in the Ohio River valley, up in to Canada. Maybe some showers overnight Sun in to Monday. I had hoped the system this past weekend would help change the pattern, but I guess not.

No rain here since yesterday, but it is very breezy now.

But this storm is not going to have a classic nor'easter path. It will only get so far north, before heading back south southeast, with no cold air having the ability to come in, even in the heart of winter.

Base on my amateur eyes, and satellite photos, Nine's center looks very broad and disorganized right now. There is a closed low, but it is still a big mess. Wind shear seems to have let up a bit, but still exists. Plus Humberto is not far away, moving WNW at 10mph, at : 22.9°N 61.1°W. Nine is at Location: 22.4°N 76.5°W moving NW at 5mph. Can someone confirm on latest satellite that it looks more like NNW at this time as the cold front to the north west is blocking it from getting to the coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0909A-PTC09.png

So far wind shear still an issue.

Still looks like a mess on recent still color enhanced satellite photos. No closed center that I see.

The other would be a Fujiwara effect to pull an Imelda away from the coast.

94L isn't going to do anything until whatever circulation that is there, clears Hispaniola.

Borders? It is tabloid. They thrive on page Six stuff.

Hurricane Josh aka iCycone aka Josh Morgerman is chasing this one in China.

Fujiwara dance.

Probably non-tropical, but still powerful as it approaches the Iberian peninsula.

94L is a mess right now, convection is being blown to the south blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/8eb8282d-d465-4233-8984-b4cec830516f

The wave behind gabrielle, the lemon on NHC site, looks like it would take a track further south and west of Gabrielle. The orange system, looks like it would track along where gabrielle has been. Still a lot of dry air out there in the Atlantic as well.

It looks to me that Gabrielle is currently being affected by an ULL to its west, and dry air to its north.NHC still predicts it will become a hurricane tomorrow. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a290b4b1-9c78-4bd0-8b59-9ebf3196f9b8

Probably for educational purposes for future storms

It looks like there is some convection near the center on the latest satellite. But it has not yet completely wrapped around the center.

Gabrielle is still a naked swirl this AM, with all the convection displaced far from the center of circulation. Center is somewhere to the south and west of that blob of convection.

Well at least as a naked swirl, we can tell it has a closed circulation...... Still a lot of dry air in the area around TS Gabrielle.

Gabrielle looks terrible on satellite photos. Stretched out, mid and low level circulation centers are disconnected. https://zoom.earth/storms/gabrielle-2025/

Definitely a mess, sheared apart by an ULL. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/5026dd98-4087-4470-abf3-c589c2404393 Plus surrounded by dry sinking air.

Satellite photos show an ULL dropping down, that probably will interfere with development. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/53dc1fce-b712-4618-afb4-c94259665cca

There was more SAL when 91L was around. That has cleared out an area, where 92L is at right now. There is still some ahead of it, and a big blob behind it. But where it is right now it is in a good spot. 92L also has a lot more convection than 91L ever had associated with it. 92L still will need to have that dry air ahead of it get out of the way, or it will fizzle out as well IMHO. No closed circulation that I can pick out with my untrained eyes. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/75019b3b-06c8-416d-8b72-d0c8bb3da341