uncle W

the averages are going up in NYC faster than any time in recorded history...the minimums out doing the maximums...we can argue why its happening and I believe the expanding heat islands play a roll in the higher temperatures...plus other factors like the Sun...the average temperature in NYC went up about a degree on average in the 1890's...1930's...1990's...2010's...some of it can be traced to the development of Manhattan and the outer borough's...New Jersey is creating its own heat island with every parking lot being built...less sticks in the sticks...to bad it is a political football because politics ruin any cooperation finding a cure so to speak...

especially when you use data from years ago when Miami was a small town...

November in NYC...decade averages and extremes... 1971-2000 normal's...Temperature...47.1...Precipitation...4.36"...Snowfall...0.4" Average temperature... decade....Ave.t.....High.....low....ave.max/min...max...min...rainfall...snowfall... 1870's.....42.2.....45.5.....37.0...........................76.......7.....3.66".....0.9" 1880's.....43.2.....45.5.....38.7.....67.3.....21.2.....71.....13.....3.54".....1.8" 1890's.....45.1.....49.9.....41.5.....66.7.....24.1.....72.....14.....3.76".....3.3" 1900's.....45.7.....51.6.....39.7.....65.8.....26.6.....74.....19.....1.91".....0.3" 1910's.....45.0.....47.8.....41.6.....69.5.....26.7.....76.....19.....2.90".....0.2" 1920's.....45.6.....49.2.....43.9.....70.0.....24.1.....76.....12.....2.65".....0.1" 1930's.....46.2.....51.9.....41.8.....70.4.....21.4.....78.....12.....3.05".....2.2" 1940's.....47.5.....52.4.....44.2.....70.4.....27.5.....74.....23.....3.59".....0.6" 1950's.....47.1.....49.7.....43.5.....70.5.....24.5.....84.....16.....3.80".....0.5" 1960's.....47.3.....50.4.....42.5.....69.9.....28.7.....78.....20.....3.73".....0.3" 1970's.....47.6.....52.5.....41.7.....71.5.....25.7.....81.....17.....4.91".....0.3" 1980's.....47.7.....50.4.....44.6.....72.4.....26.9.....79.....18.....4.97".....0.6" 1990's.....47.6.....52.0.....43.0.....72.0.....27.7.....80.....23.....3.41".....0.3" 2000's.....48.6.....52.7.....45.3.....70.0.....28.0.....79.....22.....3.77".....trace 2010's.....47.5.....52.8.....43.9.....70.0.....26.8.....74.....15.....3.48".....1.3"...2010-2018 1870- 2009........46.2........................….69.7.....25.6.......................3.55".....0.8" 1980- 2009........48.0........................….71.5.....27.5.......................4.05".....0.3" Warmest Novembers... 52.8 in 2015 52.7 in 2001 52.5 in 1979 52.4 in 1948 52.3 in 1975 51.9 in 2011 51.9 in 2006 51.9 in 1994 51.9 in 1931 51.5 in 1902 51.1 in 2009 50.8 in 1999 Coldest... 37.0 in 1873 38.8 in 1871 38.9 in 1880 39.0 in 1882 39.3 in 1875 39.7 in 1901 40.3 in 1869 wettest... 12.41" in 1972 12.26" in 1977 10.00" in 1889 8.90" in 1988 8.24" in 1963 8.09" in 1985 7.62" in 2018 Driest... 0.34" in 1976 0.60" in 1931 0.71" in 1908 0.71" in 1890 0.86" in 1917 0.90" in 1933 Highest Temperatures... 84 11/01/1950 83 11/02/1950 81 11/01/1974 80 11/15/1993 79 11/02/1982 79 11/03/2003 78 11/07/1938 78 11/05/1961 78 11/04/1975 78 11/03/1990 Coldest temperatures... _7 11/30/1875 11 11/30/1872 12 11/27/1932 12 11/30/1929 13 11/22/1880 14 11/23/1880 14 11/24/1880 14 11/29/1875 15 11/23/2018... Lowest monthly max... 60 in 1878 60 in 1893 60 in 1901 60 in 1904 61 in 1976 61 in 1947 61 in 1907 61 in 1884 Highest monthly min... 36 in 2011 36 in 1998 35 in 2006 35 in 2009 34 in 1902 34 in 1963 34 in 1975 34 in 2001 34 in 2010 34 in 2016 33 in 1907 33 in 1948 33 in 1985 Greatest monthly snowfall... 19.0" in 1898 14.0" in 1882 12.8" in 1938 ..6.4" in 2018 _6.3" in 1892 _5.0" in 1896 Biggest snowfalls... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.0" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.4" 11/15/2018 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/07-08/2012 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.0" 11/24/1898 3.0" 11/30/1967 2.9" 11/30/1995

I got around 5" of slush with that storm...Lost power for hours and my gazebo was flattened... https://www.nycsubway.org/perl/show?129631

I still like 1959 for enso, qbo and the ao forecast going into November...The ao was very negative in November 1959 and there was a major cold shot after mid month... Oct 1959 compared to 2019 and Nov 1959...

0.78" imby...

I'm issuing a rainbow alert for this afternoon...

we'll probably see some more 70+ days before it gets colder...November's average max is around 70...

edit...1982 should have 6.6" of snow...the AO went briefly neg on the 12th when DC got the 6.6"...2001 was horrible despite a favorable ao/nao...go figure...

one thing for sure is a negative AO and NAO means better chances for a colder than normal December with more snow... Washington DC's coldest and warmest Decembers since 1950 with the monthly AO/NAO and snowfall as of Dec. 31st.. year.....ave temp.....snowfall.....AO...…...NAO 1989......27.9...……...12.5".....-0.644.....-1.15 1960......31.0...………..8.7".....-0.343..... 0.06 1963......31.1...………..6.4".....-1.178.....-1.92 2000......31.8...………..2.0".....-2.354.....-0.58 1959......32.9...………….T.....…-0.042..... 0.44 1962......33.2...………16.2".....-0.711.....-1.32 1955......33.6...………..2.8".....-0.444..... 0.17 2010......34.6...………..2.1".....-2.631.....-1.85 1976......35.5...………..1.4".....-2.074.....-1.60 1950......35.6...………..5.4".....-1.928.....-1.02 1995......35.6...………..1.8".....-2.127.....-1.67 1983......36.0...………..0.3"..... 0.186..... 0.29 1969......36.3...………..6.8".....-1.856.....-0.28 1961......36.4...………..2.5".....-1.668.....-1.48 1985......36.4...………..0.7".....-1.948..... 0.22 2005......36.4...………..4.8".....-2.104.....-0.44 1968......36.6...………….T...…..-0.783.....-1.40 ...………….........………………………...………………………......…. 2015......51.2...………….0...….. 1.444..... 2.24 1984......45.6...………..0.3"..... 0.446..... 0.00 1982......45.5...………..6.6"..….. 0.967..... 1.78. 1971......45.5...………..1.5"..... 0.824..... 0.60. 2001......45.5...………….0.....…-1.322.....-0.83 2012......45.4...………..0.2".....-1.749..... 0.17. 2011......45.0...………….T...….. 2.221..... 2.52. 1990......44.5...………..3.0"..... 1.277..... 0.22 1998......44.4...………..0.5"..... 1.353..... 0.87 1994......44.2...………….T...…... 0.894..... 2.02 1956......44.2...………..0.2"..... 0.001..... 0.10 2006......44.2...………….T...… ..2.282..... 1.34 1979......43.7...………….T...….. 1.295..... 1.00 2014......43.7...………….T...….. 0.413..... 1.86 1972......43.6...………….T...….. 1.238..... 0.19 2018......43.5...………..1.4"..... 0.110..... 0.61 1974......43.1...………..0.1"..... 0.556..... 1.50 1978......43.1...………..3.1".....-0.980.....-1.57

on this date in 1960 NYC had a few wet snow flakes in the afternoon as low pressure was departing...way back in 1917 a storm brought 2 1/2 inches of rain... 1917... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55296763 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-14/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1917-10-25/ed-1/seq-16/

42 degrees now...50 in Central park...heat island in full effect...

transient blocks could bring some snow if its cold enough...

I'm thinking we could get a similar winter to 2005-06 and 2015-16 with one big storm either in February or March and some snow in December...as of today my top analogue is 1959-60...the last time I used it was for the 2005-06 winter...59-60 had some snow in December and a big storm in March...2005-06 had some snow in December and a big storm in February...

the last 30 winters in NYC...the ave temp...lowest min...coldest 30 day period...total snowfall...snowiest 30 day period...biggest snowfalls... winter...…….Dec-Feb...season/coldest/total/snowiest season...….ave temp.....min...30 days snow...30 days...4" snow storms or biggest storm... 1990-91..........39.2..........10........34.5...24.9"...15.6".......7.2"...5.7"...8.9"... 1991-92..........37.2..........11........30.3...12.4".....9.4".......6.2" 1992-93..........35.0............7........31.0...24.5"...19.5".......4.3"...10.6"... 1993-94..........31.2...........-2........23.5...53.4"...30.8".......4.0"...4.5"...9.0"...12.8"...5.0"... 1994-95..........37.1............6........31.5...11.8"...11.6".......10.8"... 1995-96..........32.3............5........27.7...75.6"...35.2".......7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"... 1996-97..........37.8............4........31.7...10.0".....6.1".......3.5"..... 1997-98..........39.6..........14........37.3.....5.5".....5.0".......5.5"... 1998-99..........38.7............9........31.3...12.7".....6.5".......4.5"... 1999-00..........36.2............3........26.2...16.3"...14.7".......5.5"... 2000-01..........33.5..........14........29.9...35.0"...20.3"......12.0"...6.0"...5.7"... 2001-02..........41.5..........19........35.4.....3.5".....3.5".......3.0"... 2002-03..........31.2............7........25.9...49.3"...29.6".......6.0"...5.0"...5.3"...19.8"...4.0"... 2003-04..........32.4............1........22.5...42.6"...19.8".......14.0"...5.8"...5.7"...10.3"... 2004-05..........35.4............5........29.5...41.0"...20.2".......13.8"...5.0"...6.0"...7.7"... 2005-06..........37.3..........14........33.5...40.0"...28.9".......5.8"...26.9"... 2006-07..........36.5............8........25.8...12.4".....7.8".......5.5"... 2007-08..........36.4..........10........35.7...11.9".....9.0".......6.0"... 2008-09..........34.2............6........27.9...27.6"...13.3".......4.5"...4.3"...8.3"... 2009-10..........33.8..........13........31.6...51.4"...38.2".......10.9"...10.0"...5.0"...20.9"... 2010-11..........32.7............6.........28.1...61.9"...37.6"......20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"... 2011-12..........40.5..........13.........37.0.....7.4".....4.5"......4.3"... 2012-13..........36.9..........11.........31.5...26.1"...13.7"......4.7"...11.4"... 2013-14..........33.0............4.........28.5...57.4"...42.1"......5.0"...6.4"...11.5"...8.0"...4.0"...9.5" 2014-15..........31.7............2.........23.9...50.3"...22.6"......9.8"...5.3".....4.0"...4.8"...7.5"...4.5" 2015-16..........41.0...........-1.........34.4...32.8"...32.8"......27.5" 2016-17..........39.3...…....14...…....35.4...30.2"...11.0"......9.4"...7.6"...5.1" 2017-18..........36.2......…...5...…....27.1...40.9"...17.5"......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4" 2018-19...……..36.2.……...…2...…....30.8...20.5"...13.0"......6.4"...4.0"...5.0"

the last time DCA had snow on the ground for Christmas was in 2009...7" was on the ground at 7am...it was washed away by heavy rain that afternoon and night...pretty much the same happened up here in NYC...I was surprised there were so little White Christmas's in Washington...I checked DCA and came up with seven years with snow on the ground Christmas morning...did I miss any?... 2009...7".....rain in the afternoon... 1989...2".....continued cold... 1966...7".....snowstorm Christmas eve... 1963...3".....snowstorm on the 23rd... 1962...5" and snowing...best white Christmas I found...5" fell that day...7" depth at end...NYC just had one inch and light snow Christmas day... 1960...1"..... 1945...3".....rain that afternoon washed it all away...

some of the coldest Oct/Nov/Dec years... 1976.....41.5 1989.....43.3 1933.....43.5 1962.....44.0 1980.....44.1 1958.....44.3 2000.....44.5 1955.....44.6 2002.....44.7 1969.....44.8

warmest October, November, December period since 1930...snowfall for the winter... 2015.....53.7...….31.8" 2001.....51.8...…...3.5" 1990.....51.6...….24.9" 1931.....51.4..…...5.3" 1984.....51.0...….24.1" 2011.....50.8...…...7.4" 1994.....50.7...….11.8" 1982.....50.6...….27.2" 1979.....50.3...….12.8" 1946.....50.0...….30.6"

NYC.......................................... season....first.freeze....last.freeze.. 1869-70.......10/26...….3/26 1870-71.......11/16...….3/29 1871-72.......10/21...….4/23 1872-73.......11/16...….3/28 1873-74...…..11/10......4/30 1874-75...…11/12...….4/22 1875-76.......11/02...….4/10 1876-77.......10/15.......4/08 1877-78.......11/07.......3/26 1878-79.......11/05.......4/06 1879-80.......10/25.......4/12 1880-81.......11/18.......4/07 1881-82.......11/22.......4/12 1882-83.......11/03.......4/03 1883-84.......11/12.......4/06 1884-85.......11/19.......4/14 1885-86.......11/01.......4/04 1886-87.......11/07.......4/19 1887-88.......10/30.......4/25 1888-89.......11/17.......3/31 1889-90.......10/24.......4/19 1890-91.......11/21.......5/06 1891-92.......11/04.......4/25 1892-93.......11/11.......3/30 1893-94.......11/15.......4/09 1894-95.......11/07.......4/05 1895-96.......11/12.......4/08 1896-97.......11/23.......4/20 1897-98.......11/18.......4/07 1898-99.......11/24.......4/06 1899-00.......11/12.......4/11 1900-01.......11/15.......3/31 1901-02.......11/10.......3/20 1902-03.......12/05.......4/05 1903-04.......11/07.......4/20 1904-05.......10/31.......3/15 1905-06.......11/14.......4/01 1906-07.......11/29.......4/03 1907-08.......12/03.......4/05 1908-09.......11/04.......4/11 1909-10.......11/30.......3/18 1910-11.......11/20.......4/03 1911-12.......11/03.......4/04 1912-13.......11/03.......3/28 1913-14.......11/11.......4/13 1914-15.......11/10.......4/04 1915-16.......11/18.......4/09 1916-17.......11/15.......4/10 1917-18.......10/31.......4/12 1918-19.......11/24.......4/26 1919-20.......11/14.......4/11 1920-21.......11/12.......4/11 1921-22.......11/06.......4/21 1922-23.......11/21.......4/14 1923-24.......11/09.......4/03 1924-25.......11/16.......4/21 1925-26.......10/29.......4/20 1926-27.......11/04.......3/28 1927-28.......11/07.......4/16 1928-29.......10/30.......3/18 1929-30.......11/22.......4/24 1930-31.......11/05.......3/14 1931-32.......11/07.......4/13 1932-33.......11/20.......3/25 1933-34.......10/26.......3/29 1934-35.......11/14.......4/16 1935-36.......11/23.......4/08 1936-37.......10/26.......3/31 1937-38.......11/21.......4/07 1938-39.......11/24.......4/13 1939-40.......11/13.......4/15 1940-41.......10/19.......3/31 1941-42.......11/25.......2/28 1942-43.......11/13.......4/16 1943-44.......11/15.......4/06 1944-45.......11/23.......3/11 1945-46.......11/21.......3/12 1946-47.......11/23.......3/31 1947-48.......11/19.......4/04 1948-49.......12/11.......3/20 1949-50.......11/22.......4/14 1950-51.......11/16.......3/27 1951-52.......11/03.......3/17 1952-53.......11/29.......3/11 1953-54.......11/06.......4/04 1954-55.......11/10.......3/29 1955-56.......11/19.......3/28 1956-57.......11/10.......3/25 1957-58.......11/11.......4/09 1958-59.......11/28.......3/29 1959-60.......11/17.......3/27 1960-61.......11/07.......3/21 1961-62.......11/10.......3/09 1962-63.......11/07.......3/23 1963-64.......12/01.......4/05 1964-65.......11/21.......4/01 1965-66.......10/29.......3/29 1966-67.......11/04.......4/12 1967-68.......11/08.......4/06 1968-69.......11/21.......4/01 1969-70.......10/23.......4/11 1970-71.......11/23.......3/27 1971-72.......11/08.......4/09 1972-73.......10/20.......3/21 1973-74.......11/10.......4/10 1974-75.......10/19.......4/10 1975-76.......10/31.......4/12 1976-77.......10/27.......4/10 1977-78.......11/14.......4/03 1978-79.......11/25.......4/08 1979-80.......11/30.......4/17 1980-81.......11/16.......3/21 1981-82.......11/25.......4/08 1982-83.......11/13.......3/30 1983-84.......11/13.......3/18 1984-85.......11/19.......4/10 1985-86.......12/02.......3/22 1986-87.......11/13.......4/01 1987-88.......11/11.......3/23 1988-89.......10/31.......3/22 1989-90.......11/18.......3/28 1990-91.......11/09.......4/13 1991-92.......11/26.......4/13 1992-93.......11/08.......3/20 1993-94.......11/21.......3/19 1994-95.......11/23.......4/06 1995-96.......11/09.......3/29 1996-97.......11/12.......4/10 1997-98.......11/13.......3/23 1998-99.......12/22.......3/16 1999-00.......11/30.......4/09 2000-01.......11/20.......3/28 2001-02.......12/16.......4/07 2002-03.......11/27.......4/08 2003-04.......11/09.......4/06 2004-05.......11/09.......3/16 2005-06.......11/18.......3/22 2006-07.......12/04.......4/09 2007-08.......11/11.......3/30 2008-09.......11/18.......3/24 2009-10.......12/07.......3/27 2010-11.......12/04.......3/29 2011-12.......12/10.......3/27 2012-13.......11/06.......3/23 2013-14.......11/12.......4/16 2014-15.......11/18.......4/01 2015-16.......11/24.......4/06 2016-17.......12/09.......3/23 2017-18.......11/10.......4/09 2018-19...….11/14......3/18

heres what eight of the ten driest falls did in the winter...the other two 1881=82 and 1879-80 had near average precip...

reminds me of the early January 2018 storm only its rain this time...

81 imby...

some snowy years didn't need a negative nao to be snowy... DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... 1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17 1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22 1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16 1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9 1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6 1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13 1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26 1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7 2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7 2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10 2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28 2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14 2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27 2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3 2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1 2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12 2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28 2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12 2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6 2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1

December 2010 featured a very negative ao and nao but a very negative pna also...it did not prevent the 12/26 storm...that was the la nina example...the el nino example of a big storm with a neg pna would be Feb. 9th, 1969...

I laugh when I here the word drought now...anyone who lived through the mid 1960's drought will agree with me...1962 was a pretty dry year...1963 almost set the record for the least amount of annual precipitation if not for a late December snowstorm...1964 was drier and broke the record for the driest year...then in 1965 the record was destroyed by a lot...the first eight months of 1966 were dry climaxing with the driest summer on record...There was a drought busting deluge in September 1966 and not for a few set backs it has not come close to that drought...