uncle W

4/7 to 4/17

the 1980's were very disappointing for snow lovers...the only big storms 9" or more came in Feb. 1983 and April 1982...the difference between the 1980's and 1990's were 1993-94 and 1995-96 had historic winters...

I missed 1989...the only cold Nov-Dec that had a mild winter...

cold Novembers followed by warmer Decembers?...looking at the last 20 cold Novembers the chances for that happening are 65%...below are the 20 coldest Novembers since 1950.....warm Decembers in red... year.....Nov...Dec.... 1959...45.8...38.4 1962...43.2...31.5 1967...42.5...38.2 1971...45.1...40.8 1972...44.4...38.5 1976...41.7...29.9 1980...44.6...32.5 1986...45.7...39.0 1989...45.7...25.9 1995...43.6...32.4 1996...43.0...41.3 1997...44.5...38.3 2000...45.3...31.1 2002...46.0...36.0 2007...45.4...37.0 2008...45.8...38.1 2012...43.9...41.5 2013...45.3...38.5 2014...45.3...40.5 2018...44.4...40.1

NYC decade snowfall averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2018-19......0.3.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.5 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4

1968-69 had 30.0"...1977-78 had 51"...

it averages 28.4" since 1870...it went 15 years without a 30 inch winter from 1979 to 1993...

the best week leading up to Christmas has to be 1883...since 1945 the best pre Christmas week could be 1945 or 1948...more recently 1995 was very good... 2009.....max...min...LE...snow...depth 12/19.....30......21...0.61"...9.1"....9" 12/20.....34......21...0.13"...1.8"....8" 12/21.....36......28......0...…..0......7" 12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......6" 12/23.....30......20......0...…..0......5" 12/24.....39......24......0...…..0......3" 12/25.....38......33...0.24".....0...…1" ………………………...……………………... 2000 12/19.....41......28......0...…..0...…0 12/20.....36......25...0.07"...0.5"....T 12/21.....33......22......0...…..0......0 12/22.....32......17...0.01"...0.8"....1" 12/23.....30......14......0...…..0......T 12/24.....31......23......0...…..0......T 12/25.....27......15......0...…..0......0 ……………………………………………... 1995 12/19.....33......22...0.68"...5.5"....6" 12/20.....23......18...0.12"...2.2"....7" 12/21.....30......19......T...…..T......7" 12/22.....34......28...0.01"...0.1"....7" 12/23.....38......29......0...…..0......5" 12/24.....34......26......0...…..0......4" 12/25.....35......26......T...…..T......3" …………………………………………... 1983... 12/19.....34......21......0...…..0......0 12/20.....25......17......0...…..0......0 12/21.....32......14......T...…..T......T 12/22.....53......31...2.18"...0.6"....0 12/23.....41......22...0.02"...0.2"....T 12/24.....22...….6...0.07"...0.8"....1" 12/25.....13...….4......0...…..0......1" ………………………………………………. 1980 12/19.....41......17......0...…..0......0 12/20.....26......14......0...…..0......0 12/21.....27......16......0...…..0......0 12/22.....32......19......0...…..0......0 12/23.....34......29...0.16"...0.6"....1" 12/24.....37......20...0.10"...1.0"....1" 12/25.....20...…-1......0...…..0......1" ………………………………………………... 1975 12/19.....26......17......T...…..T...... 12/20.....41......22......T...…..T 12/21.....27......22......T...…..T 12/22.....32......24...0.18"...1.8"....2"" 12/23.....34......22......0...…..0......1" 12/24.....23......16......0...…..0......1" 12/25.....33......17...0.17...0.5".....1" …………………………………………………………. 1970 12/19.....50......33......0...…..0......0 12/20.....46......36......0...…..0......0 12/21.....36......30...0.05"...0.3"....T 12/22.....32......23...0.24'...1.8".....2" 12/23.....32......28...0.21".....T...…1" 12/24.....33......30...0.12".....0...…T 12/25.....32......29......0...…..0......T …………………………………………………………. 1966 12/19.....42......24......0...…..0......0 12/20.....37......24...0.20"......T......0 12/21.....34......28...0.15"...1.2"....T 12/22.....36......27......0...…..0......T 12/23.....31......26......0...…..0......T 12/24.....26......22...0.74"...6.7"....7" 12/25.....32......23...0.05"...0.4"....7" ………………………………………………………... 1963 12/19.....30......16......T...…..T......1" 12/20.....26......11......0...…..0......1" 12/21.....22......11......0...…..0......1" 12/22.....36......21......0...…..0......T 12/23.....32......28...0.60"...6.0"....6" 12/24.....36......25...0.08"...0.6"....6" 12/25.....39......33......0...…..0......4" …………………………………………………….. 1962 12/19.....41......37......0...…..0......0 12/20.....41......17......0...…..0......0 12/21.....28......10...0.16"...1.6"....2" 12/22.....37......28...0.38"...1.1"....1" 12/23.....39......31......T...…..T......1" 12/24.....34......24......0...…..0......T 12/25.....35......24...0.10"...0.3"....T ……………………………………………………………… 1961 12/19.....42......36...0.15".....0......0 12/20.....44......38......0...…..0......0 12/21.....41......32......0...…..0......0 12/22.....40......29......0...…..0......0 12/23.....37......26...0.23"...2.8"....3" 12/24.....33......25...0.35"...3.4"....6" 12/25.....36......22......0...…..0......5" ………………………………................. 1960 12/19.....34......24...0.11"...1.3"....7" 12/20.....34......21......0...…..0......7" 12/21.....49......25...1.29".....T......2" 12/22.....25......16......0...…..0......2" 12/23.....22...….9......0...…..0......2" 12/24.....32...….9......T...…..T......1" 12/25.....39......28......0...…..0......1" ………………………….................... 1959 12/19.....41......27......T...…..0......0 12/20.....33......25......0...…..0......0 12/21.....33......23...0.25"...3.4"....3" 12/22.....28......17...0.71" 10.3"....13" 12/23.....23...….9......0...…..0......12" 12/24.....31......18......0...…..0......8" 12/25.....39......30......T...…..0......4" ……………………………………............ 1955 12/19.....35......20...0.01"...0.1"....T 12/20.....20...…..6......0...…..0......0 12/21.....18...…..5......0...…..0......0 12/22.....22......12...0.15"...2.7"....3" 12/23.....26......15......0...…..0......2" 12/24.....40......26......T...…..0......T 12/25.....51......33......0...…..0......0 ……………………………………………………. 1948 12/19.....29......26...1.51" 15.8"....16" 12/20.....30......26...0.02"...0.2"....14" 12/21.....42......26......T...…..T......11" 12/22.....45......36......0...…..0......8" 12/23.....38......28......0...…..0......6" 12/24.....29......21......T...…..T......6" 12/25.....27......13......0...…..0......5" …………………………………………………... 1947 12/19.....32......21......0...…..0......0 12/20.....32......17......0...…..0...…0 12/21.....42......28......0...…..0......0 12/22.....42......32......0...…..0......0 12/23.....37......28...0.29"...2.5"....2" 12/24.....33......22......T...…..T......2" 12/25.....33......19......0...…..0......1" ……………………………………………………. 1945 12/19.....23......20...0.86"...8.0"....8" 12/20.....27......18...0.02"...0.3"....8" 12/21.....27......19......T...…..T......8" 12/22.....25......18...0.01"...0.1"....8" 12/23.....27......10......0...…..0......7" 12/24.....29......14......0...…..0......7" 12/25.....51......20...1.29".....0......2" …………………………………………………... 1919 12/19.....20......10...0.11"...1.9"....2" 12/20.....28......18......0...…..0......1" 12/21.....30......25......T...…..T......1" 12/22.....37......30......0...…..0......T 12/23.....44......29......0...…..0......T 12/24.....40......26...0.22"...2.7"....3" 12/25.....27......16...0.01"...0.1"....2" …………………………………………………….. 1904 12/19.....39......30......0...…..0......6" 12/20.....36......30......0...…..0......5" 12/21.....31......23......0...…..0......5" 12/22.....36......23......0...…..0......4" 12/23.....47......36...0.01".....0......1" 12/24.....46......22...0.01"...0.1"....T 12/25.....27......21...0.16"...3.0"....3" ………………………………………………………. 1884 12/19.....16...….-1......0...…..0......T 12/20...….7...…-3......0...…..0......T 12/21.....36...…..7...1.94"...4.0"....2" 12/22.....39......33...0.04"......0......1" 12/23.....38......24......0...…..0......T 12/24.....24......18...0.27"...3.5"....3" 12/25.....25......16......0...…..0......3" ……………………………………………………….. 1883 12/19.....37......23...0.60"...5.0"....5" 12/20.....24......21......0...…..0......5" 12/21.....29......21...0.35"...2.5"....7" 12/22.....25......10......0...…..0......7" 12/23.....10...….-1...0.01"...0.3"....7" 12/24.....31...…..7...0.80"...7.3"....14" 12/25.....31......28...0.38"...5.0"....18" …………………………………………………...

its been a while since this area had a snowstorm just before Christmas...2009 was the last time a pre Christmas snowstorm gave us a white Christmas...

December 2010 is the only one with a very negative ao and nao….the last major snowstorm in December was in 2010...

the storm I was talking about did have 9.6" at JFK while NYC got 5.2"...6.8" in Bensonhurst...

we had a dusting on Thanksgiving day in 1996...

I remember the second snowstorm in early January 1988 had more snow to our sw and ne...8" DCA...5" NYC...Boston 9.4"...

1879 was a year after the solar minimum in Dec. 1878...in July 1936 the all time max of 106 was set less than a year before the solar max in April 1937...

I wonder what the temperature range would have been back in 1879?...NYC 38? LGA 38? JFK 32? EWR 32?

I'm going with a more moderate analog like 1959-60...October ended up similar to Oct. 59 and November looks cold like 1959...the ao hit a very low -5.5 sigma in November 59...Some members of the ao forecast get close to that level...

33 imby...coldest so far this season...

1872 had the first boxing day storm... 1872 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791 1872... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/

November snowfalls 1" or more before the 20th...winter totals... year..amount date...…..temp...snow...big snow... 1879...2.4" 11/4-5.....….38.5.....22.7".....4.0"....very mild winter for its time... 1953...2.2" 11/6...……….37.4.....15.8".....8.6"....Jan was the only cold and snowy period...otherwise quite mild... 2012...4.7" 11/7-8...…...36.9.....26.1"...11.4"....mild first half...cold and snowy second half... 1892...2.3" 11/9...……….28.4.....49.7".....9.1"....cold snowy winter... 1987...1.1" 11/11...……..34.7.....19.1".....5.8"....average temps with less snow than average... 2018...6.4" 11/15...……..36.2.....20.5".....6.4"....Nov and March did the heavy lifting...mild side... 1872...1.0" 11/16...……..28.3.....60.3"...18.0"....cold snowy winter... 1873...2.0" 11/18...……..34.0.....36.9".....7.5"....mild for its time with slightly above average snowfall... 1955...1.0" 11/19...……..32.7.....33.5"...11.6"....Cold beginning and end...Snowy March/April...cold overall...

we should get stuck in a pattern like January 15th, to February 15th, 1961...

the average November max and min for NYC since 1870 is 70/26...here are the last ten Novembers max/min's and some other years... year.....max.....min 2019.....71..... 2018.....71.....15 2017.....74.....24 2016.....72.....34 2015.....74.....32 2014.....68.....22 2013.....70.....23 2012.....66.....31 2011.....70.....36 2010.....65.....34 2009.....69.....35 2003.....79.....29 1998.....63.....36 1993.....80.....29 1987.....77.....18 1978.....70.....24 1976.....61.....17 1967.....65.....20 1960.....69.....30 1959.....73.....21 1950.....84.....28 1875.....63...….7 1873.....58.....21

35 imby...

with the arthritis I have I need all the heat I can get...My wife and I watch our grand kids so I'll be here for the duration...

I always wanted to move to Florida for various reasons one being my brother lives there...I guess if I live long enough I'll be living in Florida without moving...

NYC records go back to 1869 and since 1900 when the outer boroughs were farm lands here are the average's for Sept. Oct. for Central Park...the average for both months were pretty steady with the 1940's and 50's being the high point...the 2010's is the warmest decade for both months...September by an alarming rate...the warming stops in November but starts up again in December... decade....Sept...Oct... 1900's.....68.1...57.2 1910's.....66.8...57.9 1920's.....67.8...56.8 1930's.....68.7...57.4 1940's.....68.7...58.7 1950's.....68.3...58.6 1960's.....67.7...58.2 1970's.....68.3...56.9 1980's.....68.6...57.0 1990's.....68.0...57.7 2000's.....68.6...57.0 2010's.....70.5...59.2