uncle W

it was pertaining to one specific analog but some of the others have lulls in the action...

back in September 1966 a meteorologist who was working for CBS2 in NYC predicted a white Christmas for NYC..I think his name was Harry Geise? (spelling) ...it was either a great guess or a great forecast...

I'll be on that train until I see a brick wall ahead...

I looked at the coldest Novembers in NYC since 1823 and came up with this list...mild and cold are based on the averages from around those years... year...……..Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb...March... 1823-24...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold... 1827-28...cold...norm...mild...mild....mild... 1833-34...cold...norm...cold...mild...norm... 1834-35...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold... 1836-37...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1838-39...cold...cold...norm...norm...norm 1839-40...cold...mild...cold....mild....mild... 1842-43...cold...cold....mild...cold....cold 1843-44...cold...mild....cold...cold....mild 1848-49...cold...mild....cold...cold....norm 1851-52...cold...mild....cold...norm...cold... 1856-57...cold...mild....cold....mild...cold 1857-58...cold...mild....mild....cold...cold 1858-59...cold...cold...cold....mild....mild 1871-72...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold 1872-73...cold...cold...cold....cold....cold 1873-74...cold...mild....mild...norm...norm 1875-76...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold 1880-81...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1882-83...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold 1887-88...cold...norm...cold...cold....cold 1894-95...cold...mild.....cold...cold....cold 1901-02...cold...norm...cold....cold...mild 1910-11...cold...cold....mild...norm...cold 1917-18...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1925-26...cold...norm...norm...cold...cold 1933-34...cold...cold....mild....cold....cold 1936-37...cold...mild....mild....mild....cold 1951-52...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 1955-56...cold...cold...norm...mild....cold 1959-60...cold...mild....norm...mild...cold 1962-63...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild 1967-68...cold...mild....cold....cold....mild 1971-72...cold...mild....mild...norm...cold 1972-73...cold...mild....mild...norm...mild 1976-77...cold...cold....cold...norm...mild 1980-81...cold...cold....cold...mild....norm 1986-87...cold...mild...norm...norm...mild 1989-90...cold...cold....mild....mild....mild 1995-96...cold...cold....cold....cold....cold 1996-97...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm 1997-98...cold...mild....mild....mild....mild 2000-01...cold...cold....mild....mild....cold 2007-08...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm 2008-09...cold...mild....cold....mild....norm 2012-13...cold...mild....mild....norm....cold 2013-14...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2014-15...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold 2018-19...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm

one lonely member stays quite negative...some members are dipping at the end of the period...yesterdays forecast looked better and the day before wasn't as good...I would not be surprised if tomorrows forecast shows more negative values...I do think a relaxation in the neg ao comes sometime in Dec and hopefully its during the beginning of the month...

2011 is the tenth wettest fall on record...1972 one of the wettest...dry is a concern like Nov. 1976...if it stays cold we will get some snow...the driest ten year period in NYC was from 1956-1965...five of the winters in those years were snowy with major storms...

of the 14 previous years listed... 1873-74...was a mild winter with slightly above average snowfall for its time... 1869-70...was a mild winter with average snowfall for its time... 1875-76...was a mild winter with below average snowfall but did have one major snowstorm... 1871-72...was a cold winter from beginning to end...snowfall was well below average... 1976-77...was a very cold winter until mid Feb...snowfall was slightly below average... 1887-88...was a very cold winter with above average snowfall because of the March blizzard... 1894-95...cold winter with average snowfall... 1878-79...cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1933-34...very cold winter...three major snowstorms... 1921-22...cold winter with average snowfall... 1962-63...very cold winter with well below average snowfall... 1939-40...very cold winter with slightly below average snowfall... 1917-18...very cold winter with above average snowfall...one major snowstorm... 1905-06...was a mild winter with less snow than average...

30 imby...

years with temperatures 24 or lower up till Nov. 14th... year......................winter temp...snowfall...lowest min... 1879..23 on 11/5.....38.5...………...22.7"...……...7 2019..23 on 11/13...……………………………………………. 1976..24 on 11/9......28.5...………..24.5"...……..-2 2017..24 on 11/11....36.2...………..40.9"...……...5 1986..22 on 11/14....34.8...………..23.1"...……...4 1920..25 on 11/13....34.9...………..18.6"...……...4 1905..20 on 11/14....36.7...………..20.0"...……...7

the ao/nao forecasts are looking great today...They probably will change tomorrow but it is on a very good trend...

2010's have three snowstorms and numerous record lows in November...the last decade that had many record lows and snowstorms was back in the 1930's...

a record was set for yesterday at midnight when the temp was 25...

that is correct...

practicing for the real thing...

NYC snowfall for 150 years...number of times, 65.0"+...……..1 60.0-64.9"....4 55.0-59.9"....3 50.0-54.9"..10 45.0-49.9"....7 40.0-44.9"..11 35.0-39.9"....8 30.0-34.9"..17 25.0-29.9"..22 20.0-24.9"..20 15.0-19.9"..17 10.0-14.9"..21 05.0-09.9"....6 02.8-04.9"....3

my grand daughter was born during last Novembers snowstorm...that was one hell of a day but it turned out great...

all city agencies want to spend all the money alottocated to them because if they don't the city will cut their budget next year...

they probably are doing it to get some overtime for the boys...they might even use some salt for no good reason...I've seen that before...

there is a chance we see a few flakes from lake effect than the front itself...either way I don't expect any accumulations...

the earliest 20 degree or lower temperature in Central Park is 20 on 11/14/1905...the earliest date the max temperature was 32 or lower was also on 11/14 but in 1942...there is a chance NYC could break the record low on the 12th at midnight and break the record low on the 13th...there is a chance the max could be below freezing and the min 20 or below setting records for so early in the season...

that was the theme during the 1887-88 winter until the March blizzard of 88...

most of the snowiest Decembers had a neg ao on average...out of the 20 years 14 were cold...5 la nina...6 el nino...9 neutral...13 had a neg ao...4 were positive...3 near neutral...11 neg nao...7 positive...2 neutral...12 positive pna...6 neg pna...2 neutral...9 neg qbo...9 positive...2 around neutral... year....snowfall....big snow......ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...….…..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...….…..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...….…..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...….…..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...….…..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...….…..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...….…..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...….…..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...….…..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...….…..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00

NYC's coldest temperatures up to 11/15... 20...11/14/1905 20...11/15/1967 21...11/15/1933 22...11/14/1986 23...11/05/1879 23...11/14/1873 24...11/09/1976 24...11/11/2017 24...11/13/1986 24...11/15/1883

NYC's almanac for 11/8. Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation...snowfall 76 in 1975.....38 in 1886.....63 in 1975.....29 in 1886.....7.40" in 1977...0.4" in 2012 72 in 1945.....39 in 1878.....62 in 1996.....29 in 2019.....5.60" in 1972......T. in 2010 71 in 1938.....39 in 1927.....60 in 1895.....30 in 1960.....3.60" in 2006......T. in 1933 70 in 1949.....41 in 1894.....57 in 1945.....30 in 1976.....1.79" in 1947......T. in 1952 70 in 1994.....41 in 1910.....56 in 2006.....30 in 1992.....1.18" in 1951......T. in 1976 …......……...….........………………………………………..30 in 1927 …………………………………………………...…………………………………………………...………………...………………..... NYC's almanac for 11/9 Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation...snowfall 75 in 1975.....37 in 1894.....64 in 1895.....24 in 1976.....3.62" in 1889.....2.3" in 1892 73 in 1986.....38 in 1971.....62 in 1945.....27 in 2019.....1.18" in 1926.......T.. in 1924 72 in 1895.....41 in 1878.....60 in 1975.....28 in 1971..................................T.. in 1933 72 in 1950.....41 in 1976.....58 in 1950.....29 in 1992..................................T.. in 1961 72 in 1945.....41 in 1995.....56 in 2006.....29 in 2003.................................T.. in 1967

Central Park NYC tied a record low yesterday with a temp of 29 at midnight...