uncle W

1947-48 had around 330 hours...1993-94 with 310...1919-20 with 305...1995-96 with 295...1960-61 with 237...the local climate data stopped showing what precip. was falling every hour in 1965...after 1965 you have to estimate sometimes...

flurries again and its 41 degrees...

had a snow shower early in the am around 730/8 AM saw a few wet flakes about 1:45pm today... at one point this morning it looked like a thunder storm was going to hit...we got a few sprinkles from it...

the night of the January 19th 1978 storm Kasper was hedging towards a bigger storm saying the rain snow line has moved south...He said NYC could get 8"...I rember Alan Kasper making appearance's on the Uncle Floyd show in the late 70's...They called him Alan Kaster oil...

light rain with the Moon visible through the clouds...a very thin layer...

that was the one predicted to turn to rain after 3"...it finally did after 13"...

the storm was predicted to be one of the biggest storms ever a few days out...noaa said so on their weather radio back then...

we would be basking in 60 degree heat on this date not knowing a major blizzard was a week away...the first half of January 1961 was benign...Sunday the 15th was 50 degrees early in the day...light rain started in the morning and temperatures dropped during the day...the rain changed to sleet in the early afternoon and mixed with snow in the evening...it snowed until eight the next morning...2-3" across the area accumulated...it was in the 40's for two days before an arctic front passed and stalled to our south...a major blizzard with a foot of snow in Brooklyn started just after noon on the 19th...it ended just after noon on the 20th...temps were in the teens with high winds...the temperature did not get above 29 for 16 consecutive days in a row... snow cover melted very slowly and there were two days in a row of clipper snow and another coastal that dropped 4" the next week...the end of January had 9" of snow on the ground...February comes in with near record cold...-2 on the second...there were rumors of storms that week and it was supposed to be on Thursday...it came on Friday the 3rd and ended on the 4th...there was accumulating snow from 6pm to 5pm on the 4th...the temp rose to 34 just after the snow ended stopping the record 16 straight days from 17 straight days with a max freezing or lower...there was 28" on the ground in Brooklyn after 21" fell as snow and sleet...after that storm winter was on its way out with a big thaw and storms after that were to warm for snow on the coast...

Newark NJ...since 1945... 2009...4" 2002...T 1998...1" 1995...4" 1993...T 1983...1" 1980...1" 1975...1" 1970...1" 1966...8" 1963...5" 1962...2" 1961...8" 1960...2" 1959...3" 1948...3" 1947...1" 1945...4"

although some places around NYC saw a little snow for Christmas the city has not had snow on the ground Christmas morning since 2009...1966 is still the greatest Christmas eve storms that ended early Christmas morning...1961 had snow Christmas eve that ended around 11pm...1963 had a 6" storm on the 23rd that ended during the early morning hours on Christmas eve...for good measure it snowed for a few hours Christmas eve evening that whitened the 5" that was left on the ground...those three years growing up in 61, 63 and 66 have not been duplicated since... year...snow on ground...dates of storms... since 1876 1876.....1" 1880.....1-2"..... 1883...12"+......5" 12/25 1884.....3".......3" 12/24 1892.....trace... 1896.....1-2"..... 1902.......6.5" 12/25... 1904.....T-1".....3" 12/25... 1908.....trace........ 1912.....11".........11.4" 12/24 1914.....trace........0.6" 12/24.....0.4" 12/21... 1917.......4"..........9.6" 12/12-14.....0.2" 12/17..... 1919.......3"..........2.8" 12/24-25.....1.9" 12/19.....2.1" 12/16-17 1924.....trace.......0.8" 12/24-25 1925.....trace.......0.2" 12/24-25 1929.......1"..........1.4" 12/23 1930.......2"..........3.9" 12/23-24... 1935.....trace.......0.4" 12/23.....0.4" 12/20.....1.6" 12/25-26 1945.......7"..........8.1" 12/19-20...3.2" 12/14...0.6" 12/10...rain Christmas night... 1947.......1"..........2.5" 12/23 1948.......5"........16.0" 12/19-20 1955......trace.......2.7" 12/22 1959.......4"........13.7" 12/21-22 1960.......1"........15.2" 12/11-12.....1.3" 12/19 1961.......6"..........6.2" 12/23-24 1962......trace.......2.7" 12/21-22......0.3" 12/25...rain Christmas night... 1963.......6"..........6.6" 12/23-24......1.4" 12/18.....2.3" 12/12 1966.......7"..........7.1" 12/24-25......1.2" 12/21 1967......trace.......1.0" 12/23....rain Christmas night... 1970......trace.......2.1" 12/21-23 1975......trace.......1.8" 12/22...0.5" 12/25...Rain Christmas night... 1980......trace.......1.0" 12/24...0.6" 12/23 1983.......1"..........1.0" 12/23-24 1993......trace.......trace 12/24-25 1995.......4"..........7.7" 12/19-20...0.5" 12/16...1.7" 12/14...1.5" 12/9... 1998.......1"..........2.0" 12/23-24 2000......trace.......0.7" 12/20 2002......trace.......trace 12/25...5" 12/25 after morning rain... 2009.......2"........10.9" 12/19-20....rain Christmas night...

not great...March 3-4 1960 was the big blizzard...

the ao is following the 1959 one...Hopefully the positive time is a s brief as 59...

the ao for 2016...

1993-94 had over 300 hours with frozen precipitation falling...1919-20 almost as much...1995-96 had just under 300 hours with some kind of frozen precip...I have to check other years like 1947-48 to see which year had the most...

nothing beats the winter of 1960-61 especially the period from Jan. 15th to February 12th...

December 1959 had a snowstorm on 12/21-22 with a positive ao/nao and neg pna...the January 1964 blizzard was a long duration storm about 30 hours long...February 64 had another one near 30 hours...

some analogs have a warm up the second week of December...then it gets colder the last 10 days or so with some snow...if we get into the 50's before mid month it would be a normal occurrence...

43.0 in 1996...I'm not sure if 1989 or 1996 was used as analogs for this winter otherwise I would add them to the list......

1989 averaged 45.7 in November...

sorry...it should say all analogs listed had above average snowfall in December except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season...

November 2019 ends up averaging 43.9 in NYC...1995 is the closest to 2019 for November temperatures...1959 and 2013 continue to be in the game...both had a mild spell in December and ended up with an average temperature above normal..December snowfall was above average for all three of these years...all analogs listed had above average snowfall except 1977 which ended up with over 50" for the season... 2019-20 analogs... NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar... feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list... year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall... 2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9……………………………………………. 1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2" 1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6" 1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7" 1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6" 2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8" 2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6" 2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4" …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1959 compared to 2019...a graft will show the ups and downs better...the wettest day and warmest min were on the same dates.. November 1959 and 2019...………………...……... ……………….2019...…………………….1959...……………. day...max...min...rain"...snow"...…………....max...min...rain"..snow" 01.....71.....42.....0.11"...0...……………..….61.....50.....0.11"...0 02.....53.....40...…..0...….0...………………...52.....38.....0.01"...0 03.....54.....42...…..0...….0...………………...49.....35...…..0...….0 04.....56.....41...…..0...….0...………………...61.....46.....0.04"...0 05.....61.....51...…..0...….0...………………...72.....61...…..0...….0 06.....54.....45...…..0...….0...………………...73.....46.....0.67"...0 07.....57.....41.....0.10"...0...………………...46.....36.....0.82"...0 08.....41.....29...…..0...….0...………………...42.....37...…..0...….0 09.....41.....27...…..0...….0...………………...52.....34...…..0...….0 10.....51.....38...…..0...….0...………………...54.....39...…..0...….0 11.....62.....46...…..0...….0...…………………57.....43...…..0...….0 12.....57.....25.....0.04"...T...………………...59.....47...…..T...….0 13.....34.....23...…..0...….0...………………...55.....41.....0.01"...0 14.....45.....28...…..0...….0...………………...67.....50.....0.62"...0 15.....51.....37...…..0...….0...………………...50.....41...…..0...….0 16.....42.....31...…..0...….0...………………...50.....39...…..0...….0 17.....43.....30...…..0...….0...………………...51.....26.....0.38"...0 18.....42.....37.....0.48"...0...………………...33.....21...…..0...….0 19.....48.....40.....0.18"...M..………………...44.....28...…..0...….0 20.....49.....40...…..0...….0...………………...43.....32...…..0...….0 21.....53.....39...…..0...….0...………………...50.....39...…..0...….0 22.....53.....38.....0.07"...0...………………...53.....39...…..0...….0 23.....45.....34.....0.03"...0...………………...53.....40...…..T...….0 24.....46.....40.....0.90"...0...………………...61.....51.....1.10"...0 25.....53.....39...…..0...….0...………………...59.....38.....0.28"...0 26.....61.....44...…..0...….0...………………...44.....32...…..0...….0 27.....59.....49.....0.04"...0...………………...60.....41...…..T...….0 28.....53.....37...…..T...….0...………………...62.....37.....0.13"...0 29.....40…...30……..0...….0…………………...37.....27.....0.05"..0.5" 30.....43.....31...…..0...….0…………………...38.....26...…..0...….0

12/19/1995...very cold air to work with...

I got around 5" of slush with that storm...Lost power for hours and my gazebo was flattened... https://www.nycsubway.org/perl/show?129631

I still like 1959 for enso, qbo and the ao forecast going into November...The ao was very negative in November 1959 and there was a major cold shot after mid month... Oct 1959 compared to 2019 and Nov 1959...