uncle W

there are some analogs of hope that did not get started until the second week of February and both ended up with over 40" of snow with major storms in March...both were weak el nino's...1895-96 and 1913-14...1994-95 did not have an inch snowfall until Feb 4th...1877-78 was a one storm winter like 1994-95...two stronger el ninos...as bad as things look today I believe it will snow in February and March...this is analog driven...a major storm would not surprise me in March...to late for some people but it all counts in the end...

least snowfall by dates...... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

bad snow years always have some misses to the south., the north, and a great storm to early or to late in the season...

I remember light southerly winds for the 6" Feb 2008 snowfall...it was weird seeing it snow hard coming from the south...the very light winds were the key and it came a month later in February...

that was the KU on 2/19/72...5" of very wet snow changed to heavy rain in the city then ended as an inch of snow...that month had a wet storm that started as snow on the 2nd...5" of snow on the 6th...heavy rain on the 13th...2" of snow on the 17th..the 5.7" on the 19th...another 5" of unexpected snow on the 23rd...

the 1972 storm changed to rain in NYC...1989 missed completely...

Feb 2008 had a 6" one and Feb 1993 a 4" one...they came a month later when the Ocean is colder...I remember 1972 being a nothing winter until the last week in January...then all hell broke loose but we missed out on the KU that came later in February...

Tex Antoine used to call the 1930's 'the dirty 30's...probably because of the dust storms...1932, 1933 and 1937 had had warm January's and winters...1933-34 to 1935-36 were extremely cold...1934 has NYC's coldest temperature...also the hottest June temperature...1936 still has the hottest temperature recorded in NYC at 106 degrees...

todays ao is over plus 4sd and might drop to near neutral around the 20th...same for the nao...that could be a window how ever small for a snowstorm...I thought 1936-37 was a good analog for last year but it might turn out better for this year...January 1936 was a torch...February less of a torch...March was cold..snowfall was light...1936 had a 6" snowfall between warmth on January 20th...

there have been winters when most of the snow that fell came in a 30 day period...some of them had one big storm that made it acceptable... winter...…….snowfall...….30 day snowfall......big snow..... 1875-76...…….18.3"...……………..14.8"...……………..11.0"...Feb... 1920-21...…….18.6"...……………..15.1"...……………..12.5"...Feb... 1946-47...…….30.6"...……………..23.2"...……………..10.7"...Feb... 1968-69...…….30.2"...……………..22.2"...……………..15.3"...Feb... 1978-79...…….29.4"...……………..20.1"...……………..12.7"...Feb... 1982-83...…….27.2"...……………..23.4"...……………..17.6"...Feb... 1992-93...…….24.5"...……………..19.5"...……………..10.6"...Mar... 2015-16...…….32.8"...……………..31.9"...……………..27.5"...Jan... seven of the eight years had a major storm in February or March...2016 had one in late Jan...1994-95 had 0.2" going into Feb and Feb had a big storm...last winter 13" of the 20.5" came in late Feb and early March...

1877... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1877-01-09/ed-1/seq-5/ 1884...storm http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50342130 1912...storm http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1912-01-09/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1912-01-13/ed-1/seq-2/ 1930...warm https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58234219/ 1942...cold https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52678953/ 1953...storm https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59518969/ 1996...home video... 1988...

January 1993 had the highest Jan AO on record and NYC got a little snow on the 10th and 15th...the February and March AO was closer to neutral and both months had above average snowfall and below average temperatures..record snowfall and cold in March that year...

1" imby...

1995...

I hope this extremely positive ao changes the second half of January...January 2000 and 2005 had a very positive ao the first half of January...2005 being the most positive of the two...similar to this year...both years saw the ao change to negative the second half and the second half was much colder and snowier...there are years when the ao stayed mostly positive but the week or two it was closer to or negative it snowed here...

the mjo spaghetti forecast has members going to the circle of life but back around to warm phases...we need smiling phases...

1971 was ushered in with a snowstorm that measured 6.4" in Central Park and 7.2" in Bensonhurst Brooklyn....8" in parts of Long Island...9.9" in Dobbs Ferry....snow started falling about 1am and ended in the afternoon...1978 had a 2" snowfall on this date...first inch or more of that season...1976 saw rain that started on 12/31 change to 1" of snow before ending after ball drop in the early am hours...1967 had snow falling for the ball drop at midnight with 3" on the ground...that ended soon after...

if it averages +1.000 or higher it would be number 13 on the list...2015 was number 12...1993 is number one...

here are the 12 most positive ao January's...they averaged about 4.7" of snow in NYC for January...normal is around 7.5"...

analog watch... NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar...59-60 still in play except for snowfall... feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list... year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall... 2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9…..38.3………………………………………. 1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2" 1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6" 1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7" 1992.'.....67.2.....54.5.....46.5.....37.9.....36.3.....30.8.....39.7...…..24.5" 1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6" 2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8" 2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6" 2004......69.3.....56.0.....48.2.....38.4.....31.3.....36.5.....39.4...…..41.0" 2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4" …...………...…...…...…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. late entry... 1951......68.2.....58.6.....43.5.....38.6.....36.2.....36.2.....40.2...…..19.7"

there is a downward trend in the ao/nao forecasts with a few members getting very negative for the nao...we just went through a negative period with no snow or arctic temperatures...these are the el nino winters with less than 6" on January 15th and what fell after the 15th...some big years in there...some of the worst also...this el nino is weak...the other bad ones were stronger or strongest...the chances for this winter getting more or much more snow after January 15th are pretty good but how much more is the question... season...Jan 15th...After...…..total.....biggest storm... 1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"...…….6.8" 1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"...…….1.8" 1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"...….17.7" 1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"...….17.6" 1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"...…...8.1" 1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"...…….6.2" 1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"...….10.6" 1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"...….10.8" 1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"...…….5.0" 2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"...….13.8" 2006-07.........T.........12.4"......12.4"...…….5.5" 2014-15........3.7"......46.7"......50.4"...…….9.8" 2015-16...…….T...…….32.8"......32.8"...…..27.5" ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. other enso years that started bad but had better second haves... season...Jan 15th...After...total 1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"...…….5.7" 1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"...…….5.5" 2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1"...….11.4"

the squirrels are very active this morning in the Poconos...somethings up...

today JB mentioned 1936-37 as an analog...what a terrible winter...it was similar to last year...some of the 1930's winters had good Novembers and terrible winters...1931-32...1936-37...even 1938-39 but it did have above average snowfall due to November snows...

2013 and 2015 with minimums in the 60's is really unbelievable...

the temperature was just below freezing for most of the storm in NYC and it still changed to a mix that evening ...JFK being right on the water with December Ocean Temperatures could have kept accumulations down there...