uncle W

I counted 17.5" for 1918-19... https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html?_finish=0.24584769769408543

the coldest 30 days came in December...it averaged around 38.0...highest on record if it stands...

all that wasted neg ao and nao last summer...I thought it was a good sign at the time...what a disaster...

90 at the end of April...it was not a hot summer...

1963-64 is similar to 1995-96...both had a good December and a white Christmas...a Jan blizzard...a snowy February...more snows in March...2010-11 and 1960-61 shut off early...1947-48 can be put in the same category with them but had a comeback after a big Feb. Thaw...1994 had a comeback after a big Feb. thaw...1958 and 1996 had snows after a big Feb. thaw...

its funny that 1966 had similar storms in January and then December...both were KU storms and both times the low was very close to us and we got dry slotted...the December storm did have hours of sleet which was a downer...it did changed back to snow once the low got north of us...

85 in mid March 1990...1" of snow April 7th...

the 1966-67 winter was predicted quite well by the farmers almanac...the white Christmas was predicted three months in advance...it did have many ups and downs... 12/4.....14 degrees 12/8-11...60 degrees or above...66 on the 9th... 12/13-14...wet snow and rain... 12/18...56 degrees... 12/21...1" of snow... 12/24...7" of snow... 12/29...heavy rain starts as snow... 1/19...13 degrees light snow... 1/22-26...major thaw...68 degrees on the 24th... 2/2...58 degrees...wet snow that evening... 2/5...48 degrees... 2/6...3" of snow... 2/7...12" of snow...9 degrees... 2/8...6 degrees... 2/10...2" of snow... 2/13...4 degrees... 2/15...60 degrees... 2/18...2" of snow... 2/23...4" of snow... 2/25...12 degrees... 3/1...16 degrees... 3/3...64 degrees... 3/5...2" of snow changing to rain... 3/6-7...3" of rain... 3/11...72 degrees... 3/14...63 degrees... 3/15-16...3" snow and sleet... 3/17...3" of snow...20 degree max... 3/18...8 degrees... 3/21-22...10" of snow...

the Lindsay storm in 1969 ended on this date...20" of paste at JFK...one of the best busts ever because the storm was forecast to change to rain...

the last 25 years have seen great winters and horrible ones like this year,,, since 1993-94 (26 years) the Number of times snowfall was 00-09.9".....3...97-98...01-02...11-12... 10-19.9".....6...94-95...96-97...98-99...99-00...06-07...07-08 20-29.9".....3...08-09...12-13...18-19... 30-39.9".....3...00-01..15-16...16-17... 40-49.9".....5...02-03...03-04...04-05...05-06...17-18... 50-59.9".....4...93-94...09-10...13-14...14-15... 60 plus".....2...95-96...10-11...

I read that the ground where the glacier was during the ice age is still rising up causing the lake waters on the south shores to rise while the north shores retreat...

I got over a foot in Bulls Head that day...

so far the coldest temperature this month in NYC is 30 I think...the record for the highest monthly min for Feb is 22 set in 1927...I think that record could fall this year... year Feb min... 1927.....22 2012.....20 2002.....19 2000.....19 1997.....19 2017.....19 1982.....19 1964.....19 1897.....19 1960.....18

some years with the biggest snowfall coming in March or April... year...…..snowfall date 1887-88...20.9"...3/12-14 1891-92.....8.0"...3/17-18 1895-96...12.0"...3/15-16 1905-06.....6.5"...3/13-14 1913-14...14.5"...3/1-2 1914-15...10.2"...4/3-4 1914-15.....7.7"...3/6-7 1923-24.....8.4"...4/1 1940-41...18.1"...3/7-8 1955-56...11.6"...3/18-19 1957-58...11.8"...3/20-21 1958-59.....5.5"...3/12 1959-60...14.5"...3/3-4 1967-68.....6.6"...3/1 1975-76.....4.2"...3/9-10 1979-80.....4.6"...3/13-14 1980-81.....8.6"...3/5 1981-82.....9.6"...4/6 1983-84.....6.9"...3/8-9 1991-92.....6.2"...3/18 1992-93...10.3"...3/13 1997-98.....5.0"...3/22 1998-99.....4.5"...3/14-15 2006-07.....5.5"...3/16 2008-09.....8.3"...3/1-2

so far this winters coldest consecutive 30 days is near 38.0... 1997-98 holds the record with 37.3 for the coldest consecutive 30 day period... year...30 day ave temp... 2019-20.....38.0 1997-98.....37.3 2011-12.....37.0 1948-49.....36.3 1931-32.....35.8 2007-08.....35.7 1889-90.....35.6 1952-53.....35.5 2001-02.....35.4

from the start I thought December and March would see the most snow this winter...I did not think there would be hardly nothing in January and February or being this mild...with the ao skyrocketing upward chances for significant snow are low...Hopefully March has some snow in it to make this winter a smidge better than horrible...

if we don't see improvement in two weeks I'll temper my thinking on March...we could still see the biggest snow of the season in March but that's not saying much...this winter is like a warm version of the 1979-80 winter especially if we do get a March storm...

how much did it rise here?...the same?...

comparing analogs for this winter...1936-37 added... NYC monthly average temperature from Sept-Mar... feel free to add any analogs used for this winters forecast...I will add them to the list... year...…Sept.....OCT.....NOV.....DEC.....JAN.....FEB.....MAR.....snowfall... 2019...…70.4.....59.9.....43.9…..38.3……39.2…………………………………. 1936.....68.2.....57.6.....42.7.....38.6.....40.2.....34.8.....36.5...…..15.6" 1959...…72.3.....59.8.....45.8.....38.4.....33.9.....36.3.....33.3...…..39.2" 1969...…69.0.....57.7.....46.4.....33.4.....25.1.....33.0.....38.7...…..25.6" 1977...…68.2.....54.9.....47.3.....35.7.....28.0.....27.2.....39.0...…..50.7" 1992.'.....67.2.....54.5.....46.5.....37.9.....36.3.....30.8.....39.7...…..24.5" 1995...…68.3.....61.6.....43.6.....32.4.....30.5.....33.9.....38.9...…..75.6" 2002...…70.2.....55.2.....46.0.....36.0.....27.5.....30.1.....43.1...…..49.8" 2003...…67.9.....55.1.....50.0.....37.6.....24.7.....35.0.....43.5...…..42.6" 2004......69.3.....56.0.....48.2.....38.4.....31.3.....36.5.....39.4...…..41.0" 2013...…67.9.....60.2.....45.3.....38.5.....28.6.....31.6.....37.7...…..57.4"

these are the years with the greatest snow depth on Jan. 31st in Newark since 1946... 1948-----7" 1949.....4" 1961.....9" 1963.....6" 1966.....7" 1987.....5" 2000.....4" 2004.....6" 2005.....7" 2011...15" 2015.....6" 2016.....7"

no doubt this year is terrible so far...1956 had less snow than this winter going into March...it ended up with 33.5"...two big storms back to back from the 16th-19th...so it is possible to get a big snowstorm in March...I never give up until mid April...

only a great March on the order of 1896 or 1956 can save this winter...it can't be the least snowiest winter on record or have the smallest snowfall for a season...some clunkers with little snow... year...……….biggest snowfall... 1871-72.....3.0" 1918-19.....1.4" 1931-32.....2.0" 1941-42.....3.2" 1950-51.....3.0" 1954-55.....3.9" 1972-73.....1.8" 1996-97.....3.0" 2001-02.....3.0" …………………………... season...…...total snow..... 1877-78.....8.1" 1918-19.....3.8" 1900-01.....9.1" 1931-32.....5.3" 1972-73.....2.8" 1988-89.....8.1" 1996-97...10.0" 1997-98.....5.5" 2001-02.....3.5" 2011-12.....7.4" 2019-20.....4.8" so far...

all the 1960's storms were measured when they ended...I say that because the final totals match the snow depth...

1993 is a good analog and that year got started in February and climaxed in March...its going to be March or bust for me...

eventually one of these long range storms will materialize as forecast...Maybe not this year but it will happen again...