uncle W

some of these years had snow before December...1931, 2018, 2011 and 1989...

today in 1934 a tropical storm grazed the city and dumping 5" of rain on it...1934 was a very interesting year...one of the greatest periods for variable weather on record...record cold...alltime lowest temperature in Feb...record heat...alltime June hottest temperature...tropical storm with deluge in September...and blizzard in Jan 1935...I think the period from March 1960 to Feb 1961 was better with multable blizzards and a hurricane...the period from Feb 2010 to January 2011 was great but did not have a hurricane... the 1934 storm... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877271/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877280 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/59877286 http://ibtracs.unca.edu/index.php?name=v04r00-1934248N24286

thr AO is at its highest point in months...that scares me a little...The ao is forecast to go negative by most members that make up the forecast...an ao roller coaster ride during the winter would not be a bad thing...

the winter of 1949-50 to March 1956 was the worst snow drought in NYC weather history...

in recent years NYC has been getting above average snowfall despite a positive nao on average... DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... 1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17 1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22 1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16 1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9 1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6 1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13 1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26 1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7 2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7 2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10 2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28 2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14 2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27 2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3 2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1 2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12 2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28 2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12 2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6 2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1

some winter forecasts last year were spectacular failures...the pessimism for next winter is high...to me the enso forecast looks like 2005 and 1995...1959 if la nina doesn't develop...I'm just talking oni numbers and not a winter forecast weatherwise...all three of those years had a major snowstorm in the northeast...I can see a fast start to winter but a long mild period before the next good pattern sets in...its three more months before reality hits us good or bad...

1/2 inch on my side of the island...

the trof in the east basicly lasted until Dec 1996...

this happened in 1995 but the cold in November went on for five months...

even in bad la nina winters there can be a two week period when you see most of the snowfall that season... some la nina winters with a good two week period in an otherwise benign winter.... Jan. 10-24........1965..27.1..50....9..2.11"..14.1"....6.3"....6" Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0..58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5" Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5..45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8" Jan 8-22...........1984..24.2..46....8..1.15"..10.5"....5.1"...6" Jan25-Feb 8.....1985..27.3..41..14..1.36"..10.8"....5.7"...7" Jan28-Feb11....1986..30.4..48..14..1.68"..11.5"....4.5"...6" Jan20-Feb 3.....2000..24.5..38....8..1.78"..11.7"....5.5"....6" Jan26-Feb9......2013..31.5..61..11...2.81"..12.2"..11.4"..10"

sports are not the same with no fans in attendance...add in politics and its unwatchable...

if you're dreaming of a white Christmas la nina or neutral winters have the most...1" or more on the ground Christmas morning... 1959.....neutral... 1960.....neutral... 1961.....weak neg... 1962.....weak neg... 1963.....el nino 1966.....weak neg... 1970.....la nina... 1975.....la nina.... 1980.....neutral... 1983.....la nina... 1995.....la nina... 1998.....la nina... 2009.....el nino...

I go by the hottest 30 day period...1980 has the hottest such period at 82.5 degrees from July into August... the July 2nd-31st 2020 30 day period was 80.2 if my math is correct... Hottest 30 day periods... 82.5 in 1980 81.9 in 1876 81.9 in 1999 81.8 in 2005 81.8 in 2010 81.7 in 2013 81.6 in 1955 81.2 in 1993 81.1 in 1995 81.1 in 1988 81.0 in 1966 81.0 in 2011 80.9 in 1983

it should go by an 80 degree mean temperature for the day...

warmer minimums with no let up...

i remember the September 1970 five day heat wave from the 22nd to the 26th...four of the five days were above 90...the one that wasn't averaged 81...the five straight days averaged over 80...the 94 on the 22nd tied the hottest of the season...it hit 90 or higher on seven days in Sept. 1970...the month ended rather cold... December and January were cold...2005 had a warm Sept then a cold December 2010 too...1973 to a lesser extent...I think September sees a few 90 or better days especially the usual hot spots...

Saxby Gale on steroids...

I had a 92/67 split today with a brief downpour this evening...

all the la nina Decembers since 2000 had at least 3" of snow except in 2011 which had 3" in October...2000, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017 had at least 6" of snow and a snowstorm at least 4"...

Dec 2000 and 2010 were kind of similar with rumors of storms weeks before they actually happened...

max/min of 91/71 so far...

I'd like to see a cold Christmas week for a change instead of 70 and Sunny... DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... 1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17 1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22 1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16 1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9 1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6 1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13 1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26 1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7 2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7 2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10 2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28 2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14 2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27 2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3 2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1 2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12 2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28 2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12 2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6 2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1

the winters with the most consistent blocking were 1995-96, 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, 2010-11...1973-74 had a lesser negative ao winter...The winters with no blocking to speak of are...1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2007-08, 1949-50, 1998-99...the only cold winter with no blocking was 1975-76...but all six with no blocking had less snow than average...the only winter with less snow than normal with blocking was 1970-71...only 1955-56, 1995-96 and 2010-11 had major blizzards and above average snowfall...weaker la nina years like 1966-67 and 2013-14 had less blocking but lots of snow...2010-11 had strong blocking until the end of January...snowfall was a lot less after that... la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" ................................................................................................................................................................. weak la nina... 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" weak negatives... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1"

on the other hand the ao will go as positive as we seen in a while...it looks like an ao roller coaster coming up...with a la nina winter coming up the ao better go negative at least half the time...

you beat me to it...