uncle W

79 imby after hitting 80...

NYC snowfall in la nina years...(ONI) ...13 years with at least 20" of snowfall...11 years with less than 20" of snowfall... 60"+ winters...two...2010-11...1995-96... 40-49.9"..........two...2005-06...2017-18... 30-39.9"........three...2016-17...2000-01...1955-56... 20-29.9"...........six....2008-09...1984-85...1983-84...1973-74...1971-72...1964-65... 15-19.9"........three...1999-00...1975-76...1970-71... 10-14.9"...........six.....2007-08...1998-99...1974-75...1954-55...1950-51...1949-50 00'09.9"...........two....2011-12...1988-89...

being dry now does not matter...being dry in winter can be a problem sometimes...

QBO is similar to 2010 and 1966 but will it continue...Both winters featured a qbo of at least +10 throughout the winter...

some QBO numbers... Sept year...............after..... 2020.....+795.....rising??? 2019.....+825.....falling slowly...weak el nino... 2010.....+658.....rising then steady thru the winter at +10... 2008...+1160.....steady around +10 throughout... 1999....+1119.....steady then falling slowing thru the winter to around +5... 1995.....+698.....falling to -10 by March... 1985....+1172.....steady with a minor dip to+9 at winters start... 1975....+1095.....steady throughout... 1971......+895.....steady throughout... 1966.....+923.....rising then steady at around + 12 to +10... 1959....+1009.....steady then falling during the winter to near zero in March... 1955......+816.....steady then falling to negatives by January...

yesterday jb back tracked on his call for a mild snowless winter...he quoted a similarity with the 2010 arctic oscillation...

Getting into the low 50's this time of year in NYC is not a significant feat...even upper 40's...low 40's upper 30's would be...

I remember the morning of the March 3rd 1960 storm and the forecast was for snow turning to rain with moderating temperatures...I guess the weather bureau.didn't see the coastal developing and taking over the circulation...

if a la nina winter starts cold Feb can be much milder...if a la nina winter starts mild Feb can be colder...some years had cold Decembers but mild Januarys like 2006 and 1989... some others were warm throughout or cold throughout...the maps below have 1954 by mistake...take that year out and the maps look the same...

last year was the ninth time NYC had a higher temperature in October than in September...its possible it can happen again though chances are not great at this time...from 1938-1941 it happened three times in four years... year....Sept....Oct.... 2019....89........93 1997....83........85 1975....81........83 1949....87........88 1941....93........94 1939....88........91 1938....86........90 1928....85........86 1883....79........80

I wouldn't bet on it...

80/68 max/min imby...last year had a warmer ending to September and beginning of October...

the two years before 1970-71 were cold el nino winters...70-71 continued the cold theme...Feb 1969 was a bench mark for snow in Boston that was surpassed by Feb 2015...the last two winters have been mild and lets hope 2020-21 does not continue the mild theme...

1970-71 and 2007-08 were terrible here in NYC but they were great well north of here...

we need a good block during a la nina December at least in my area... most Decembers with an AO -4sd or lower usually had heavy snow that month in the NYC area... la nina... 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was getting 3" of snow and the coldest temp of the winter...9 degrees...not great but it was the best part of that winter... el nino... 12/20/1963...ao was below -4sd on the 20th...NYC got 7" of snow on the 23rd... 12/27/1968...below -4sd...light snow soon followed...it took till Feb to get a heavy snowstorm... 12/29/1976...below -5sd...light snow that day but the winter had record cold...no heavy snow that year... 12/21/2009...ao was almost -6sd...NYC got 11" of snow on the 19th-20th... neutral... 12/26/1961...almost -4sd...6" of snow on 12/23-24... 12/31/1962...below -4sd...no heavy snow that winter...Just record cold...13 degree max in NYC 12/31/62... 12/27/1978...below -4sd...it took till Febfuary to get heavy snow...

95-96....great winter... 05-06....good winter... 07-08...horrible winter... I'll take a blend of all three....

77/67 imby...

Looking at oni only 1995 and 2005 and 2007 are the best fits imo...

I was one of the few who did not believe the 3 feet that was forecast...The ao was very positive at the time and I was worried about it...we did get 9" which normaly would be a nice storm if 10" was predicted...the next year the big one hit and I was bullish about that one because the ao/nao went very negative a few days before the storm...

if you go by real averages September averaged 68.3 from 1981-2010...so far this September is averaging 68.5 but should end up a little higher when the month ends...it looks like the 1991-2020 average should be 68.9 ...this September will be near the 1991-2020 average...

snow in October usually means winter is Octover...

the ao has more weight in December and the winter than in September...some years had a -4sd ao in January like 1998 but it had little or no effect on our temperatures...

A -4sd ao in December during a la nina or near la nina year usually means heavy snowstorm sooner or later...there are exceptions but very few... 12/13/1966 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time NYC is getting snow and rain but NYC got 7" of snow on 12/24... 12/19/1995 the ao goes below a -4sd...the same time the city is getting an 8" snowstorm... 12/29/2000 the ao goes below a -4sd...NYC got a foot of snow the next day... 12/18/2010 the ao goes below a -5sd...NYC got 20" of snow on 12/26-27... 1950 which is another la nina year had a -4sd ao on the 27th...at the same time NYC was getting 3" of snow and the coldest temp of the winter...9 degrees...not great but it was the best part of that winter... the two el nino Decembers I found with a -4sd are... 12/20/1963...ao was below -4sd on the 20th...NYC got 7" of snow on the 23rd... 12/21/2009...ao was almost -6sd...NYC got 11" of snow on the 19th-20th.. four more years I found with an ao -4sd in December...1961 was almost a -4sd... 12/26/1961...almost -4sd...6" of snow on 12/23-24... 12/31/1962...below -4sd...no heavy snow that winter...Just record cold...13 degree max in NYC 12/31/62... 12/27/1968...below -4sd...light snow soon followed...it took till Feb to get a heavy snowstorm... 12/29/1976...below -5sd...light snow that day but the winter had record cold... 12/27/1978...below -4sd...it took till Febfuary to get heavy snow...