uncle W

is Minnneapolis doomed to have a lousy winter now that it snowed in October or is it just an east coast thing...

the 1880's and 1980's only had one storm 10" or more...The blizzard of 1888 is the only big one that decade... snowfalls 10" or greater...... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1874...12/20.......10.0" 1875...4/13.........10.0" 1876...2/3-4........11.0" 1877...1/1-2........13.0" 1879...1/15-16....13.0" 1888...3/12-14....21.0" 1896...3/2...........10.0" 1896...3/15-16....12.0" 1897...1/27-28....10.0" 1898...11/26-27..10.0" 1899...2/12-14....16.0" 1902...2/17..........10.0" 1905...1/24-25.....11.0" 1907...2/4-5.........11.0" 1908...1/23-24.....10.0" 1910...1/14-15.....10.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1914...3/1-2.........14.5" 1915...4/3-4.........10.2" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1920...2/4-7.........17.5" 1921...2/20..........12.5" 1925...1/2............11.5" 1926...2/3-4.........10.4" 1926...2/9-10.......12.0" 1933...2/11..........10.0" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1935...1/23-24.....13.0" 1941...3/7-8.........18.1"... 1947...2/20-21.....10.7" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1956...3/18-19.....11.6" 1958...3/19-20.....11.8"... 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6"... 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6"... 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8"... 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9"... 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/25-26.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2014...2/13-14.....12.5"... 2016...1/22-23.....27.5"* biggest of all time...

1988-89 snowstorms in this area ... 12/13-14/1988.....10.4" Islip LI... 1/6/1989.................5.0"...Central Park... 2/24/1989.............12.3" Atlantic City... 3/6/1989.................5.0" Brooklyn...

sometimes during la nina years there is a storm with a small area with heavy snow...like Feb 1989 in Atlantic city when they got a foot of snow...NYC virga...Feb 1974 when Freehold NJ got 10" while NYC only 2"...

Atlantic City got lucky when a foot of snow fell in late February 1989...Freehold NJ got 10" in late Feb 1974...both times NYC and DCA got less than 2"...even in a bad winter some places get a big storm...DCA got an 8.4" storm on 3/9/99 while NYC got very little if any...

getting record highs in late Oct and Nov is not a good sign but there have been some years with them and it still got cold in Dec... 1947 1968 1975 1993 are examples...

the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again...

there have been a few la nina years that started cold in December and January but moderated plenty in February before ending with a snowy March...best examples are... 1955-56... 1983-84... 2017-18...

2009-10 was great...2006-07 wasn't...

1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter...

1973-74 had the strongest la nina for any winter...with the help of some periodic blocking it was a decent winter...

I'll vouch for that...I had 1.25"...

todays system reminds me of a few that happened during the 1995-96 season...Late November 1995 and early February 1996...

none from 1950 to 1984...I dont have enso numbers before 1950 handy so I cant say how la nina years passed without a 4" snowstorm in NYC...maybe because we are still in a wetter regime...

its hard to get a snowstorm that's 4" or more in December during a la nina year...only seven years had one since 1950...mostly recent years... 2017......4.6" 2010....20.0" 2008......4.0" 2005......5.8" 2000....12.0" 1995......7.7" 1984......4.8"

la nina winters in NYC... year.......Dec snow.......total snow... 2017........7.7"....................40.9" 2016........3.2"....................30.2" 2011...........0........................7.4" 2010.......20.1"....................61.9" 2008.........6.0"....................27.6" 2005.........9.7"....................40.0" 2000.......13.4"....................35.0" 1999..........T........................16.3" 1998.........2.0".....................12.7" 1996...........T........................10.0" 1995........11.5"....................75.6" 1988..........0.3".......................8.1" 1984..........5.6"....................24.1" 1983..........1.8"....................25.4" 1975..........2.3"....................17.3" 1974..........0.1"....................13.1" 1973..........2.8"....................23.1" 1971............T.......................22.9" 1970..........2.4"....................15.5" 1964..........3.1"....................24.4"

NYC ... la nina winters...weak negative winters... winter..............DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...ranked by the coldest to warmest Dec-Feb period... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255........30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342........31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439........33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070........33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"............6.3".....4.6" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872........33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"............4.5"....4.5" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406........33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"..........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930........34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"............3.9" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293........34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224........34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"............8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"............4.2" 4.0" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164........35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"............5.7".....5.2" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400........35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"............6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"............6.0" 4.3" 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084........35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"............3.0" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"............5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"............5.5" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"............4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"............6.0" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"............5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838........36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"...........11.4"....4.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008........37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"...........26.9"....5.8" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8".............3.8" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624........37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1".............7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201........37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0".............3.5" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7".............4.5" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108........39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2".............9.4"....7.6"....5.1" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750........40.5...13..........37.0............7.4".............4.2"

1.20" so far...

there is only on tri monthly oni number as low as -2.0 and that was the 1973-74 NDJ tri monthly period...the lowest tri monthly number for the DJF period are... year...DJF oni 1950 -1.5 1971 -1.4 1974 -1.8 1976 -1.6 1989 -1.7 2000 -1.7 2008 -1.6 2011 -1.4

I think the record for consecutive days with at least 1" of rain was when NYC got four straight from 9/23-26/1975...

I don't think NYC had two consecutive days with 1.00" LE from all snow...It did have three consecutive days with at least 1" LE on 2/4-6/1920 from snow, sleet and freezing rain...

DCA Nov-Dec snow...ao/nao for biggest snowfalls... year.....snow"...big snow".................................................AO..........................................NAO............................ 2009....16.6"....16.4" 12/18-19.......................-4238 12/18....-5821 12/21........-2111 12/14....-1964 12/20 1962....16.2"......5.4" 12/25.............................-0656 12/25...-4159 12/31........-2046 12/25 1966....16.1"......6.7" 12/13...7.0" 12/23-24....-4147 12/13...-2343 12/23........-0101 12/13...+0503 12/23 1967....13.2"......6.9" 11/30...4.2" 12/31.........+1812 11/30...+0479 12/31.....+1196 11/30....-0883 12/31 ...includes Nov snow 1989....12.5"......4.5" 12/12-13.........................-3482 12/10...............................-1704 12/10....-0173 12/16 includes Nov snow... 1957....12.0"....11.4" 12/3-4............................-1395 12/1....+0899 12/4..........-1286 12/2.....+0221 12/6 1987....11.5"....11.6" 11/11..............................-0663 11/7....+1056 11/11.........-0286 11/7......+0603 11/11 1973....11.0"....10.2" 12/16-17.......................-1946 12/9......-0888 12/14.........-2792 12/19.......+0320 12/16....-0941 12/24 1960......8.7"......8.5" 12/11-12.......................-0082 12/12........-0781 12/9.......-0078 12/12 2002......7.1"......6.1" 12/5...............................-1938 12/5....................................-1381 12/1......-0351 12/4 1969......6.8"......5.1" 12/25-26........................-3259 12/21...-0971 12/26..........+0054 12/25....-0148 12/26 1953......6.7"......6.6" 11/6-7............................-0554 11/4.....+1291 11/7............+0068 11/5.......+0315 11/6 1982......6.6"......6.6" 12/12.............................-0696 12/12....+2284 12/16.........+1082 12/9......+0657 12/12 1963......6.4"......5.6" 12/23.............................-4470 12/20....+0129 12/23.........-2397 12/13.....-0103 12/23 2003......6.2"......3.6" 12/14.............................+1239 12/13....-0194 12/15.........+0539 12/14....-0015 12/15 1970......5.2"......4.9" 12/31.............................-2530 12/19....-1493 1/1/71..........-2434 12/25....-1731 12/31 2005......4.8"......3.9" 12/5-6............................-3569 12/5.......................................-0921 12/6 enso...la nina in blue...el nino in red...neutral in black...62-66-67 were weak negatives...2003 a weak positive...89 and 60 around neutral...

Nov 1987 had a foot of snow between torch's...

58.5 would be average for the 1931-60 period...its about a degree above average for the last 30 year period...