uncle W

October ends up averaging 57.9 in CP...the 1981-2010 average was 57.2...the 1991-2020 average is 57.7...

I don't like mixing analogs that are on the opposite side of the spectrum...2007-08 can't be mentioned in the same sentence with 1995-96...thats just me...I see Larry has some big years on that list...for the record I think the winter won't be like either of them years...I think snowfall will be near average along with temperatures...give me 59-60 and I'll be happy...

NYC snowfall for La nina winters... 60"+...............2...1995-96...2010-11 50"-59.9"........0 40"-49.9"........2.....2005-06...2017-18 30"-39.9"........3.....1955-56...2000-01...2016-17 20"-29.9"........7.....56-57...64-65...71-72...73-74...83-84...84-85...08-09 10"-19.9".......11....49-50...50-51...54-55...67-68...70-71...74-75...75-76...96-97...98-99...99-00...07-08 00"-09.9".........2.....88-89...11-12

there have been many a la nina winter with a cold January and mild February...1971, 1984, 1985 and 2018 to name a few...There also are a few la nina winters when February had the coldest temperatures or biggest snowfall...1972, 1974, 1975 and 2006 come to mind...I'm not sure if its going to be front loaded or back loaded at this point...

up and down temperatures are possible this week...back in 1965 it was 32 degrees the morning of Oct 29th...by the 31st the temp hit a high of 72...Then on Nov 2nd the temp dropped to 31...then on the 4th the temp rebounded to 71...So we can see big changes in temperature this time of year...

30 imby for the low...hello winter...

no jinx this year if Central park did not get any frozen precip...big winter on tap...

this was one of the wettest storms in October that had some sleet or snow with it... October snowfalls in NYC with measurable precip... 1876.....0.5".......0.36" 1925.....0.8".......0.15" 1926.......T..........0.91" 1944.......T..........0.01" 1952.....0.5".......0.07" 1960.......T..........0.14" 1962.......T..........0.65"...dusting in parts of the city... 1972.......T..........0.63"...dusting in parts of the city... 1979.......T..........1.31"...dusting in parts of the city... 2000.......T..........0.01" 2002.......T..........0.03"...dusting in parts of the city... 2011.....2.9".......2.01"... 1926, 1979 and 2011 had juicy storms...1962 and 1972 were moderate storms...

sleet and wet flakes have mixed in now...40 degrees...

1938 hurricane... 1938... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55277489/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55277490 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55277491 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55277492 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/55277493

66-67 is a neutral negative but before the oni change a few years ago it was a weak la nina...QBO was similar to this year...blocking was good the first half...the warmest month was January and the ao/nao were both negative on average that month...it was a back loaded winter for us with no ao/nao blocking to speak of ... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... nao monthly numbers and lowest figure... 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 ao... 1966-67...-1.401 -0.576..1.180...1.967...-4.147...12/13

DJFM monthly nao and ao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park...some recent years had 30" of snow with the ao/nao averaging positivefor months... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... 1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17 1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22 1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16 1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9 1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6 1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13 1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26 1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7 2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7 2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10 2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28 2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14 2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27 2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3 2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1 2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12 2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28 2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12 2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6 2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1 ............................................................................................. 1955-56...-0.444 -1.204 -2.029..0.470..-4.564....2/15 1957-58.....0.828 -1.438 -2.228 -2.522..-4.030....3/11 1959-60...-0.042 -2.484 -2.212 -1.625..-4.108....1/28 1960-61...-0.343 -1.506....0.621...0.341..-2.719....1/10 1963-64...-1.188....0.385 -0.575 -0.558..-4.470...12/20 1966-67...-1.401 -0.576...1.180....1.967...-4.147...12/13 1968-69...-0.783 -2.967 -3.114 -1.582...-5.282...2/13 1977-78... -0.240 -0.347 -3.014 0.502...-5.291...2/5 1993-94...-0.104 -0.288 -0.862..1.881....-3.503...2/24 1995-96...-2.127 -1.200....0.163 -1.483...-4.353...12/19 2000-01...-2.354 -0.959 -0.622 -1.687...-4.854...2/25 2002-03...-1.592 -0.472...0.128...0.933...-3.575...1/22 2003-04,,,..0.265 -1.686 -1.528...0.318...-4.387...1/17 2004-05.....1.230...0.346 -1.272 -1.348...-4.337...2/26 2005-06...-2.104 -0.170....0.156 -1.604...-3.569...12/5 2009-10...-3.413 -2.587 -4.266 -0.432...-5.821...12/21 2010-11....-2.631 -1.683....1.575...1.424....-5.172...12/18 2013-14.....1.475 -0.969...0.044...1.206...-2.605...1/27 2014-15.....0.413...1.092...1.403...1.837....-1.462...3/19 2015-16.....1.444 -1.449 -0.024...0.280...-4.898...1/16 2016-17.....1.786...0.942...0.340...1.365....-2.228...2/14 2017-18...-0059 -0.281....0.113 -0.941....-4.426...3/2

You can't beat Dec 66 for a white Christmas...you did better than we did.

the QBO was dropping from plus to minus in 1995...this year could be different...

2010-11 had a plus 10 on the QBO scale and got extreme blocking Dec and Jan...2008-09 and 2016-17 had a high QBO and both winters were good in the NYC area despite little blocking...1966-67 had a high QBO with some blocking and major snowstorms...

I'll check the local climate data tomorrow...brooklyn got 30" in Dec 1947

1925 had an inch of snow and temps as low as 29 at the end of October...the following February was 1994 like...one of the few times NYC had 20" on the ground... NYC deepest snow depth... dates.........snowdepth 12/27/1872......18" ...one storm... 03/14/1888.......21" est...one storm... 02/14/1899.......20"...two storms... 02/10/1926.......20"...two storms... 01/23/1935.......18"...one storm... 03/08/1941.......18"...one storm before changing to rain... 12/27/1947.......26"...two storms...one 26"... 02/04/1961.......24"...more than two storms...one 17"... 02/07/1978.......18"...one storm... 02/12/1983.......19"...two storms... 02/11/1994.......22"...two storms... 01/08/1996.......20"...one storm... 02/17/2003.......19"...one 19" storm... 02/12/2006.......18"+ one storm... 02/26/2010.......21"...one storm... 12/27/2010.......20"...one storm... 01/27/2011.......23"...more than two storms... 02/13/2014.......18"...more than two storms... 03/05/2015.......19"...many storms... 01/23/2016.......22"...one storm... some places in the city got over 18" on the ground in other years... 02/10/1969.......19"...one storm...JFK 03/19/1956.......21"...Newark... 12/12/1960.......21"...Newark

not bad with very little sea ice to work with...

the nao was positive almost the whole winter of 1993-94...it did go negative around Christmas 1993...it was negative for a few days in January and end of February...on the other hand the AO was negative for long periods... AO 1993 12 1 1.781 1993 12 2 1.635 1993 12 3 1.553 1993 12 4 1.720 1993 12 5 1.421 1993 12 6 0.925 1993 12 7 0.663 1993 12 8 -0.022 1993 12 9 -0.692 1993 12 10 -1.312 1993 12 11 -1.607 1993 12 12 -1.433 1993 12 13 -1.078 1993 12 14 -0.369 1993 12 15 -1.144 1993 12 16 -1.537 1993 12 17 -1.080 1993 12 18 0.022 1993 12 19 1.295 1993 12 20 1.901 1993 12 21 1.763 1993 12 22 0.497 1993 12 23 -0.293 1993 12 24 -0.517 1993 12 25 -1.129 1993 12 26 -1.649 1993 12 27 -1.401 1993 12 28 -0.654 1993 12 29 -0.431 1993 12 30 -0.742 1993 12 31 -1.201 1994 1 1 -0.871 1994 1 2 -0.761 1994 1 3 -1.023 1994 1 4 -1.107 1994 1 5 -1.892 1994 1 6 -3.054 1994 1 7 -2.881 1994 1 8 -2.700 1994 1 9 -2.913 1994 1 10 -3.073 1994 1 11 -2.820 1994 1 12 -1.965 1994 1 13 -1.127 1994 1 14 -1.440 1994 1 15 -1.804 1994 1 16 -1.028 1994 1 17 0.365 1994 1 18 1.959 1994 1 19 1.879 1994 1 20 2.470 1994 1 21 3.267 1994 1 22 3.221 1994 1 23 1.896 1994 1 24 0.959 1994 1 25 0.907 1994 1 26 1.005 1994 1 27 0.805 1994 1 28 0.215 1994 1 29 0.191 1994 1 30 1.181 1994 1 31 1.528 1994 2 1 1.535 1994 2 2 1.599 1994 2 3 0.503 1994 2 4 -0.865 1994 2 5 -1.166 1994 2 6 -1.451 1994 2 7 -1.321 1994 2 8 -0.483 1994 2 9 -0.055 1994 2 10 0.538 1994 2 11 0.892 1994 2 12 1.148 1994 2 13 0.848 1994 2 14 0.111 1994 2 15 -0.466 1994 2 16 -0.147 1994 2 17 -0.050 1994 2 18 -0.205 1994 2 19 -0.765 1994 2 20 -1.593 1994 2 21 -2.278 1994 2 22 -2.764 1994 2 23 -3.263 1994 2 24 -3.503 1994 2 25 -3.417 1994 2 26 -2.957 1994 2 27 -2.359 1994 2 28 -1.336 1994 3 1 0.321 1994 3 2 1.638 1994 3 3 1.977 1994 3 4 1.510 1994 3 5 1.390 1994 3 6 1.900 1994 3 7 1.860 1994 3 8 2.039 1994 3 9 2.500 1994 3 10 3.276 1994 3 11 2.997 1994 3 12 3.111 1994 3 13 3.795 1994 3 14 3.666 1994 3 15 2.393 1994 3 16 1.338 1994 3 17 0.685 1994 3 18 -0.041 1994 3 19 -0.473 1994 3 20 -0.287 1994 3 21 0.524 NAO 1993 11 30 1.291 1993 12 1 1.557 1993 12 2 1.538 1993 12 3 1.486 1993 12 4 1.390 1993 12 5 1.288 1993 12 6 1.175 1993 12 7 1.268 1993 12 8 1.564 1993 12 9 1.573 1993 12 10 1.297 1993 12 11 1.122 1993 12 12 1.009 1993 12 13 1.048 1993 12 14 1.476 1993 12 15 1.213 1993 12 16 1.065 1993 12 17 1.084 1993 12 18 1.177 1993 12 19 1.481 1993 12 20 1.444 1993 12 21 1.040 1993 12 22 0.346 1993 12 23 -0.395 1993 12 24 -0.685 1993 12 25 -0.824 1993 12 26 -0.854 1993 12 27 -0.495 1993 12 28 0.042 1993 12 29 0.169 1993 12 30 0.117 1993 12 31 0.187 1994 1 1 0.632 1994 1 2 0.627 1994 1 3 0.511 1994 1 4 0.707 1994 1 5 0.339 1994 1 6 -0.083 1994 1 7 0.119 1994 1 8 0.372 1994 1 9 0.079 1994 1 10 -0.200 1994 1 11 -0.254 1994 1 12 0.030 1994 1 13 0.231 1994 1 14 0.263 1994 1 15 0.171 1994 1 16 0.227 1994 1 17 0.469 1994 1 18 0.725 1994 1 19 0.883 1994 1 20 1.400 1994 1 21 1.736 1994 1 22 1.369 1994 1 23 0.999 1994 1 24 0.818 1994 1 25 0.890 1994 1 26 0.863 1994 1 27 0.586 1994 1 28 0.210 1994 1 29 0.420 1994 1 30 0.866 1994 1 31 1.118 1994 2 1 1.227 1994 2 2 1.150 1994 2 3 0.780 1994 2 4 0.492 1994 2 5 0.436 1994 2 6 0.342 1994 2 7 0.303 1994 2 8 0.296 1994 2 9 0.379 1994 2 10 0.765 1994 2 11 0.927 1994 2 12 1.058 1994 2 13 0.922 1994 2 14 0.382 1994 2 15 0.187 1994 2 16 0.480 1994 2 17 0.521 1994 2 18 0.215 1994 2 19 0.050 1994 2 20 0.064 1994 2 21 0.085 1994 2 22 0.262 1994 2 23 0.023 1994 2 24 -0.287 1994 2 25 -0.265 1994 2 26 -0.103 1994 2 27 -0.008 1994 2 28 0.111 1994 3 1 0.520 1994 3 2 0.843 1994 3 3 1.087 1994 3 4 0.959 1994 3 5 0.851 1994 3 6 1.134 1994 3 7 1.388 1994 3 8 1.554 1994 3 9 1.407 1994 3 10 1.248 1994 3 11 1.291 1994 3 12 1.355 1994 3 13 1.264 1994 3 14 1.202 1994 3 15 1.001 1994 3 16 0.462 1994 3 17 0.095 1994 3 18 -0.117 1994 3 19 -0.182 1994 3 20 -0.037 1994 3 21 0.288

Boston had long stretch of snow cover from just before Christmas 1970 through most of January 1971...nice white Christmas that year...it doesn't come close to 1947-48 which had snow on the ground from Dec 23rd to March 16th despite getting beat on 12/26-27/47...a nice white Christmas though from a 10" storm a few days before......

back in the 1960's there would have been a polution alert with this inversion...Thanksgiving 1966 had very bad polution... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_New_York_City_smog#:~:text=The 1966 New York City smog was a,26%2C coinciding with that year's Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

meh...the 6" of snow that fell New Years day 1971 was washed away by a rain storm a few days later...January 1971 was cold in NYC...February was milder and storms were just warm enough for rain on the coast...heavy snows inland...

if the la nina becomes strong 2007-08 would be a good enso fit...if it becomes stable and stays weak 2016-17 is a good fit...if it gets a little stronger but not that strong 1995-96 would be a good fit...1988 and 1998 already had a strong la nina in progress at this time...

QBO is different this year...I'm not sure if that means much...

I was being sarcastic but 8 of 10 is a good percentage...