uncle W

thanks Walt...I cant figure out what part of Brooklyn that is?...I had a roof top weather sight when I lived in Brooklyn...my strongest gust of wind was 60mph in November 1989...

how about a snowstorm at the end of the month like what happened in 1938...this year anything is possible...

thats about right...

anyone know where thats located in Brooklyn?...

picked up a quick 4 thnths of an inch of rain from one of the thinnest lines of showers I've seen in a while...

my grand daughter was born on this day in 2018...Todays her 2nd birthday...a record snow for so early in a season...maybe that fact will make her a weather fanatic like her grandfather...

in 2017-18 it snowed almost every time the ao went negative that year...

2005-06 had a cold spell near the end of November...after a brief warm up December started out cold and snowy...it was a good two week period of wintry weather...after that there was one good week in Feb...a lot of winters are like that ...some have one good week in Dec and two good weeks in Feb...1961-62 was like that...1985-86 had two good weeks in Feb...that was it...1974-75 was like that too...

warmest Novembers in NYC... 1902...warmest till 1931...December was cold and snowy including snow Christmas day... 1931...warmest till 1948 despite 2" of snow on 11/27...biggest of that horrid winter... 1948 was the warmest November on record until 1979...Dec 19-20th 1948 had 16-19" of snow in the city...the snow lasted thru Christmas...before that storm NYC got a 5" snowfall that changed to rain...the last few days of December had flooding rains that ended as 5" of snow early New Years day...the 25" of snow in December was the second year in a row with a major storm in December... 1975...second warmest Dec before 1979... Dec got cold and there was 2" of snow on the 22nd..Christmas morning had a little snow on the ground and there was a half inch of snow in the afternoon...that changed to rain during the late evening...New Years eve had rain in the evening that turned to an inch of snow early New Years day... 1979...warmest on record at the time until 2001...there was a snowfall of 3-4" on Dec 19th....that snow was gone in a few days and Christmas was 61 degrees... 1994...December had very little snow if any... 2001...December had very little snow if any... 2006...December was warm with no snow... 2009...big snow on 12/19-20... 2011...came after a 3-5" snowstorm in October...Dec had little snow if any... 2015...warmest on record now...December was much above the record as the warmest with no snow...

I was up in Dingmans Ferry PA that day...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...I drove home when the snow stopped and there was 8" in Brooklyn...a few days later another event dropped another 1-2" in NE Jersey and as far east as Newark...the coldest snowiest week in April during the 1900's...

some years with a warmer December...cold January and warm again in February... 1996-97 1998-99 1999-00 colder January analogs... 1956-57 1984-85 1964-65 2008-09

the first six winters I was alive for was 1949-50 to 1954-55...six straight with under 20" of snowfall in NYC ...no blizzards or crippling storms during that period...the streak started after the winters of 1944-45-1948-49...The winter of 47-48 is still one of the best ever...26" storm in Dec...48-49 had a crippling storm in December too and had over 45" of snowfall....1955-56 was another light snow winter until the third week in March...March 56 had the first storm a foot or more since Dec 1948...after another lackluster winter in 1956-57 there were six of the next 12 winters that were very good to great with crippling storms...that was the best run until the 1993-94 to 2017-18 period...will we be seeing some dud years ahead?...very possible but who knows...

73/44 split here...a far cry from the last three Novembers...

there have been ten winters that produced less than 10" of seasonal snowfall in NYC since 1868-69...1996-97 had exactly 10"...I lived through six of these winters...here they are by the numbers... season.....snowfall...1" snowfalls... 1972-73........2.8"........1.8" 2001-02.......3.5"........3.0" 1918-19........3.8"........1.3" 1.4" 2019-20.......4.8"........2.1" 1.3" 1931-32.......5.3"........2.0" 1.1" 1997-98.......5.5"........5.0" 2011-12........7.4"........4.3" 2.9" 1877-78........8.1"........7.0" 1.0" 1988-89........8.1"........5.0" 2.6" 1900-01........9.1"........1.8" 4.0" 1.5" ....................................................... season.....ave temp/relative to decade coldest temp... 1972-73........35.8.......33.7..+2.1....................7 2001-02.......41.5........35.2..+6.3..................19 1918-19........36.6........32.0..+4.6..................10 2019-20.......39.2........36.7..+2.5..................14 1931-32........40.1........34.0..+6.1...................15 1997-98.......39.6........36.4..+3.2..................14 2011-12........40.5........36.6..+3.9..................13 1877-78........33.3........31.5..+1.8....................7 1988-89.......35.9........34.9..+1.0....................5 1900-01........31.7.........32.0..-0.3....................4 ................................................................ season.....precipitation ... 1972-73........15.17" 2001-02.........4.91" 1918-19........10.96" 2019-20.......11.56" 1931-32.........9.59" 1997-98........15.28" 2011-12..........8.60" 1877-78..........8.89" 1988-89.........6.45" 1900-01..........4.22" .............................................................................. 1972-73 had the least amount of snowfall with above average precipitation...Mild/wet... 2001-02 was second with very little precipitation...It was the warmest winter on record...Mild/dry... 1918-19 was third withy two 1" March snowfalls...precipitation was slightly below...Mild... 2019-20 was the fourth worst ... 1931-32 was fifth and was the second warmest ever...2" snow in November...Mild/dry... 1997-98 was wet and mild...5" March snowfall...wettest of them all...Mild/wet 2011-12 similar to 2001-02 but with an October snowstorm... 1877-78 had one snowstorm...was milder than the 1870's average...Dry as well...Mild/dry 1988-89 had two snowfalls over 2"...was very dry...was milder than the 1980's average...mild/dry... 1900-01 had three 1" snowfalls...was colder than the 1900's average...was the driest...cold/dry... ..............................................................................................................................

a summery of la nina years in NYC with some neutral negative...... season......ave temp …...Min ...coldest 30 days... snowfall..most snow in 30 days..largest snowfalls... 1949-50..........37.5............6...….....31.6...………...13.8"...………….8.9"...…………….3.8"........................Feb. was the coldest snowiest month... 1950-51..........35.9............9...……..33.0...………...11.6"...………….5.0"...…………....3.0"........................Dec. was the coldest snowiest month... 1954-55..........34.0............0......…..28.6...………...11.5"...…………..5.2"...…………....3.9".......................Jan into early Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1955-56..........32.7............5......…..27.6...………...33.5"...………...25.3"...…………....6.5"...11.6"...4.2"...Dec was the coldest...March into April the snowiest... 1956-57..........35.6............0......…..27.8...………...21.9"...………...15.2"...…………....4.9"...6.4".............January into early feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1964-65..........33.3............9......…..28.0...………...24.4"...………...14.4"...…………....6.3".....4.6"...........January was the coldest snowiest part... 1966-67..........34.1............4......…..28.6...………...51.5"...……...…25.6"......………….7.1"...12.5"...9.8"...Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1967-68..........31.3...........-1......…..25.1...………...19.5"...……….....9.1"...…………....6.6"........................January was the coldest snowiest part.... 1970-71..........32.1............4......…..24.2......……...15.5"......……….11.4"...…………....6.4".......................late dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1971-72..........35.1............5...….....28.6...………...22.9"...………...19.6"......………….5.7".....5.2".............Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1973-74..........35.5............6......…..32.3...………...23.5"...………...10.6"...…………....4.7".....6.0".............Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1974-75..........37.5..........15......…..33.0...………...13.1"...………...11.3"...…………....7.8".........................Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1975-76..........34.4...........-1......…..27.1...………...17.3"...………....9.6"...…………….4.2".....4.0"...............late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1983-84..........35.2............4......…..26.1...………....25.4"...………...12.1"...…………....6.9"...5.1"...4.6"......late dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1984-85..........36.4...........-2......…..27.5...…….......24.1"...………...16.9"...…………....4.8"...4.1"...4.3"...5.7"...early January to early Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1985-86..........33.4............8...….....31.0...………...13.0"...………...12.1"......…………..4.5"...4.5"................Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1988-89..........35.9............5...….....32.4...……….....8.1"...…………..5.3"...………….....5.0"..........................Feb 89 was the coldest part...Jan the snowiest... 1995-96..........32.3............5......…..27.7...………...75.6"...………...35.2"...………….....7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...mid Dec to mid Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1996-97..........37.8............4...….....31.7...………...10.0"...……….....6.1"...……………..3.5".........................Jan was the coldest snowiest month... 1998-99..........38.7............9...….....31.3...………...12.7"...……….....6.5"...………….....4.5".........................Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1999-00..........36.2............3...….....26.2...………...16.3"...………...14.7"...………….....5.5"..........................Mid Jan to mid Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 2000-01..........33.5..........14......…..29.9...………...35.0"...………...20.3"...…………....12.0"...6.0"...5.7".....mid Dec to mid Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 2005-06..........37.3..........14......…..33.5...………...40.0"...………...28.9"...……………..5.8"...26.9"..............Dec was the coldest part but Feb was the snowiest... 2007-08..........36.4..........10...….....35.7...………...11.9"...……….....9.0"......…………...6.0".........................Feb was the coldest snowiest month... 2008-09..........34.2............6...….....27.9...………...27.6"...………...13.3"...……………..4.5"...4.3"...8.3"........Jan was the coldest snowiest month... 2010-11..........32.7............6...….....28.1...………...61.9"...………...37.6"...…...……….20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 2016-17..........39.3....…...14...….....35.4...………...30.2"...………...11.0"...……………...9.4"...7.6"...5.1"........March was the snowiest and almost the coldest...Jan was the coldest month........... 2017-18..........36.2.......…..5...….....27.1...………...40.9"...………...17.5"...…………......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"...5.5".......late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1869-70 to-- 2018-19...……...33.6...…...4.3...…….28,2...…….…..27.5"...…………

both, but I think February will be the coldest month and with the biggest snow...January 1976 was the coldest month and February turned very mild the last three weeks...74-75, and the other two had the most snow in February and had the coldest month of the winter...they had a two week period with at least 10" of snow and temps averaging below freezing...75-76 didn't but was the only winter that had a below zero temperature......

1975 had a positive Nov AO and 1978 had a very positive AO for November...2020 is hitting those high notes...Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 were cold despite the positive ao...1978 had a reversal of the positive ao the end of Dec...Feb had a great period of cold and snow...Feb 1976 had some snow the first week of Feb...I think the winter will start out mild until mid January or so...snowfall will be light until possibly Feb...One good week or two in Feb...analogs are 1974-75...1985-86...1971-72...these are my thoughts now...there is time for the pattern to change before Christmas as did in 1975...overall if we dont get a major storm like 2006 the winter will end up disappointing...time will tell...

I don't like what's happening with the ao this month...It makes me think the first half of winter sucks if you like snow...there can always be a rogue storm but that's grasping for staws...maybe things will get better by the end of January...a positive ao does't mean it will be mild all the time...it can even be cld like in 1988 and 1975...

1975 had a plus ao in November...it had a plus ao winter with some neg periods...it had a cold start despite the plus ao...this year could beat those highs...1978 had an even higher plus ao than 1975 but by the end of December it became quite negative...... Nov-Dec daily ao in 1975... 1975 10 31 1.061 1975 11 1 1.724 1975 11 2 2.706 1975 11 3 3.338 1975 11 4 3.121 1975 11 5 2.250 1975 11 6 1.883 1975 11 7 2.352 1975 11 8 2.560 1975 11 9 1.763 1975 11 10 0.456 1975 11 11 -0.873 1975 11 12 -1.191 1975 11 13 -0.961 1975 11 14 -0.420 1975 11 15 0.212 1975 11 16 -0.310 1975 11 17 -1.259 1975 11 18 -1.559 1975 11 19 -1.506 1975 11 20 -1.537 1975 11 21 -1.190 1975 11 22 -0.426 1975 11 23 0.527 1975 11 24 2.020 1975 11 25 2.126 1975 11 26 1.727 1975 11 27 1.284 1975 11 28 0.362 1975 11 29 -0.492 1975 11 30 -0.785 1975 12 1 0.043 1975 12 2 0.471 1975 12 3 0.744 1975 12 4 0.959 1975 12 5 0.669 1975 12 6 0.540 1975 12 7 0.906 1975 12 8 0.881 1975 12 9 0.586 1975 12 10 0.326 1975 12 11 0.221 1975 12 12 0.769 1975 12 13 1.262 1975 12 14 1.208 1975 12 15 0.475 1975 12 16 -0.222 1975 12 17 0.125 1975 12 18 1.000 1975 12 19 1.681 1975 12 20 2.976 1975 12 21 3.524 1975 12 22 2.224 1975 12 23 1.324 1975 12 24 1.432 1975 12 25 1.858 1975 12 26 2.646 1975 12 27 2.786 1975 12 28 2.384 1975 12 29 2.026 1975 12 30 1.787 1975 12 31 0.950

2008-09 is the closest we came to a cold winter with less snow than average...nothing like the cold snowless winters of 1958-59...1962-63...1967-68...1970-71...all over 50 years ago...

1975 was one of those years with a freeze in October and then November turned warm..December and January turned cold...

1973-74 was one of the strongest la nina winters and it almost had average snowfall with the help of some neg ao/nao blocks...the ice storm in December 1973 is still the biggest I can remember...a near miss heavy snow in late February and a surprise snowfall at the end of March climaxed that winter... April had a parting shot...1970-71 is the only year with less snow than average with a neg ao...but it was cold..I averaged the four month AO numbers...1988-89 came in second for strenth and the AO was very positive on average...that year was not that mild but had the least snow of these years...the only real warm winters were 1949-50 and 1998-99... la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

the last time there were four consecutive cold Novembers ended in 1927...maybe not even that because of less of a heat island...2012-14 and 1995-97 had three in a row also...

I have 2005 and 2016 in my analog package...will we see a big February storm this year?...TWT...

its already a strong la nina...how long does it last?...without blocking the winter will suck...