uncle W

remember Dec 2000 and 2010 when some models were hinting big storms for weeks before it actually happened...both those Decembers were cold...2020 will probably be warmer than those two because they were much below normal...

67 max today...0.47" of rainfall this morning...

I wasn't to impressed with the March 2001 and Jan 2015...analogs used for the 01 storm were to cold...The ao was way positive for the 2015 storm...

Thanksgivingwx.pdf (weather.gov)

that winter had two good weeks in the first half of December and one huge storm in Feb...otherwise it was really bad...

A freudian slip...

yeah Dec 26th has the most crippling storms than any other day...1969 changed to rain after 6" fell or it would have been a classic... Dec 26th 1872...18"... Dec 25-26 1909.....8"... Dec 26th 1933.....11" Dec 26-27 1947...26" Dec 26-27 2010...20"

is this the year we see a white Christmas?...here's Newark NJ. since 1945... year...snow on the ground Christmas morning...snow falling midnight Christmas eve...*...snow falling Christmas day...** 2009...4" 2002...T * ** 1998...1" 1995...4" ** 1993...T * ** 1983...1" 1980...1" 1975...1" ** 1970...1" 1966...8" * 1963...5" 1962...2" ** 1961...8" 1960...2" 1959...3" 1948...3" ** 1947...1" 1945...4"

thanks...

31 years ago today...

some real dud winters had a little snow the first week in December including last year then have a dry spell until February...1949-50 and 2007-08 come to mind...2005-06 too but snowfall was heavier esp;ecially in Feb...its nice to see this year has some hope and I hope it lasts thru New Years day...

I hope this year ends on a good note and we see snow for Christmas...the La ninas have seen some happy endings...it hasn't snowed except for a flurry or two on Christmas eve night since 1993's very light snow...the last good storm in that timeframe was way back in 1966... 1961...weak negative... 1962...weak negative... 1963...el nino... 1966...weak negative... 1969...el nino... 1970...la nina... 1975...la nina... 1980...weak negative... 1983...la nina... 1993...weak - to weak + 1995...la nina... 1998...la nina... 2002...el nino...

the original was better with Carl Sagan...he was the man...

50/25 max/min today...

January 2000 was my first internet snowstorm...1999-2000 and 1965-66 were similar winters...1999-00 averaged 36.2 for Dec thru Feb...1965-66 averaged 35.9...the coldest period for 1999-00 was from 1/9-2/7 averaging 26.2...15" of snow from 1/20-2/18...1965-66 was 1/12-2/10 averaging 28.5...18" of snow from 1/26-2/25...both winters had its first measurable snow on 1/20...1999-00 was a weaker version of 1965-66... 1965-66 snow dates...1999-00 0.4" 1/20/66...............2.5" 1/20... 2.4" 1/23.....................5.5" 1/25 2.0" 1/26-27................1.5" 1/30 6.8" 1/29-30................2.2" 2/3 3.1" 2/2-3....................3.0" 2/18 0.4" 2/16..................... 6.3" 2/24-25................

what a way to run a torch...if it wasn't for the last three Novembers this would be considered a significant November cold shot...

the night before Kocin did say there was an outside chance the storm comes up the coast...

todays high of 36 is quite low for November 18th...the record is 33 last set in 1959...

5.5" as measured in Central Park but at least 0.5" was un reported because it snowed lightly after midnight until dawn...it should have been a 6" storm for the city...1999-2000 had one of the latest measurable snowfalls when the first one came on Jan. 20th...

I remember back in 1975 some trees is Brooklyn were still green with all their leaves...1975 had a late October freeze and warm first half of November like this year...precipitation looks pretty even for the fall this year and 1975...

maybe because the planet is a little warmer the south east ridge is more significant... snowiest NYC Decembers since 1950 and indices... year....snowfall big snow..ave temp....oni…...AO.......NAO....PNA....QBO... 2010.....20.1"...…….20.0"...…….32.8......-1.6....-2.631....-1.85....-1.78....10.97 2003.....19.8"...…….14.0"...…….37.6...….0.4.....0.265.....0.64.....0.86...-11.38 1960.....18.6"...…….15.2"...…….30.9...….0.1....-0.343.....0.06.....1.46...-11.36 1959.....15.8"...…….13.7"...…….38.4...….0.0....-0.042.....0.44.....0.66......8.30 2000.....13.4"...…….12.0"...…….31.1...…-0.7....-2.354....-0.58.....1.23...-14.56 2009.....12.4"...…….10.7"...…….35.9...….1.6....-3.413....-1.93.....0.34...-15.57 1995.....11.5"...……...7.9"...…….32.4...…-1.0....-2.127....-1.67.....0.92.....-4.57 1963.....11.3"...……...6.3"...…….31.2...….1.3....-1.178....-1.92....-0.08......5.48 2002.....11.0"...……...6.0"...…….36.0...….1.1....-1.592....-0.94.....1.59.....-0.50 2005...….9.7"...…......5.8"...…….35.3...…-0.8....-2.104....-0.44.....1.38...-25.04 1966...….9.1"...……..7.1"...…….35.7...….-0.3....-1.401.....0.72.....0.09....13.26 1957...….8.7"...……..8.0"...…….40.2...…..1.7.....0.828.....0.12....-0.43...…7.35 2013...….8.6"...……..5.0"...…….38.5...….-0.3.....1.475.....0.95....-0.86....12.52 1961...….7.7"...……..6.2"...…….35.5...….-0.2....-1.668....-1.48....-1.24......6.25 2017...….7.7"...……..4.5"...…….35.0...….-1.0....-0.059.....0.88.....0.89...-18.12 1952...….7.5"...……..4.5"...…….38.4...…..0.1....-1.827....-0.43.....0.93.....-1.65 1990...….7.2"...……..7.2"...…….42.6...…..0.4.....1.277.....0.22....-1.32....10.68 1968...….7.0"...……..5.2"...…….34.3...…..1.0....-0.783....-1.40....-1.44...-11.36 1993...….6.9"...……..4.0"...…….37.3...…..0.1....-0.104.....1.56.....0.72.....-6.00 1969...….6.8"...……..6.8"...…….33.4...…..0.6....-1.856....-0.28.....1.84......5.00 ................................................................................................................. 6" plus December snowfalls date...........amount...AO.........NAO.........PNA.....NDJ ONI... 12/3-4/1957.....8.0"...+0.561....-0.197.....+0.534...+1.6.....ao was rising from negative... 12/21-22/59...13.7"...+1.032...+1.291......-0.812....-0.1..... 12/11-12/60...15.2"....-0.316....-0.916.....+1.527.....0.0 12/23-24/61.....6.2"....-0.862....-2.530......-0.436....-0.2 12/23-24/63.....6.6"...+0.129....-0.103.....+1.218...+1.1.....ao was rising from negative... 12/24-25/66.....7.1"....-2.324...+0.411.....+0.686....-0.3 12/25-27/69.....6.8"....-0.971....-0.148.....+0.547...+0.7 12/27/1990......7.2"...+2.601...+1.950......-0.936...+0.4 12/19-20/95.....7.7"....-4.353....-0.774.....+0.926....-0.9 12/30/2000....12.0"....-4.115....-0.537.....+1.075....-0.8 12/5/2002.......6.0"....-1.938.....-0.479.....+0.672...+1.1 12/5-6/2003...14.0"...+0.481.....-0.197.....+0.784...+0.3 12/19-20/09...10.9"....-4.651.....-1.833.....+0.549...+1.3 12/26-27/10...20.0"....-2.886.....-1.144......-0.284....-1.4

its not often that everything falls into place like in 1995-96...sometimes you can get lucky in a mild winter...its happened three times in the last 15 years...it can get as cold as one below zero in a warm winter like Feb. 2016...1948-49 had a great second half of December coming off a warm fall...it had a few other snowstorms including a 9.4" the last day of Feb... winter.........ave temp......snowfall.....big snow...min temp... 2016-17..........39.3..............30.2"..............9.4"..........14 2015-16..........41.0..............32.8"............27.5"...........-1 2005-06..........37.3..............40.0"............26.9"...........14 1990-91..........39.2..............24.9"..............8.9"............10 1982-83..........37.9..............27.2"............17.6"............12 1948-49..........38.5..............46.6"............16.0"............10 1932-33..........37.8..............27.0"............10.0"............11

my house was about three miles west of there...

DC had one around this time... 1927...tornado in DC... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334027/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/58334036