uncle W

the 56 storm started as rain but changed to snow in the morning and ended in the afternoon...LGA climate data has 6.4"... IPS-A10EB500-60DD-4507-B44B-DC9EF477546E.pdf (noaa.gov)

I had around 2.5" on Staten Island that day...

1998 was going to break the record for the least amount of snow when 2-5" fell across the city from I think was a rear end storm...snow on the backside of a storm...another date in March that saw a good size snowstorm is March 22nd...some March 21st-23rd snowstorms in NYC... 3/21-22/64.....4.9" 3/21-22/67.....9.8" 3/22-23/92.....3.2" 3/21-22/98.....5.0" 3/21-22/18.....8.4"

maybe I'll get a nice birthday surprise like what happened in March 29th 1974...that date is the last March date with numerous snowfalls...since I was born it snowed on the 27th-29th a few times... 3/27-28/1959.....0.6" NYC 1.2" LGA 3/29/1970..........4.0" NYC 3/29/1974..........3.2" NYC 3/28-29/1984.....3.3" NYC 3/28-29/1996.....4.1" NYC

so far NYC has 52 days with a minimum 32 or lower this year...this year might make 60 if NYC gets nine more this month and April...it needs less than 2" of snow to make 40" for the season...Some other years with 40" of snow with 25% less normal freezing days... winter.....32 min.....snowfall... 2020-21.....52.........38.6" 1957-58.....59.........44.7" 1948-49.....62.........46.6" 2005-06.....67.........40.0" 2017-18.....69.........40.9" some others... 2015-16.....46.........32.8" 2016-17.....49.........30.2" 1982-83.....53.........27.2"

Biggest snowfalls in NYC 21.0" 3/12-14/1888 18.1" 3/7-8/1941 14.5" 3/3-4/1960 14.5" 3/1-2/1914 12.0" 3/15-16/1896 11.8" 3/20-21/1958 11.6" 3/18-19/1956 10.6" 3/13-14/1993 10.0" 3/2/1896 ..9.8" 3/21-22/1967 ..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949 ..8.6" 3/5/1981 ..8.4" 3/21-22/2018 ..8.3" 3/1-2/2009 ..8.0" 3/18-19/1892 ..7.7" 3/6-7 1915 ..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005 ..7.6" 3/6-7/1916 ..7.6" 3/14/2017 ..7.5" 3/5/2015 ..7.3" 3/6-7/1923 ..6.9" 3/8-9/1984 ..6.7" 3/4-5/1917 ..6.7" 3/16-17/1956 ..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968 ..6.5" 3/5/1902 ..6.2" 3/19/1992 ..6.0" 3/6-7/1870 ..6.0" 3/19/1890 ..6.0" 3/10/1907 ..6.0" 3/15/1906

heres what I got saved... NYC's Arctic outbreaks... Max..Min...dates...snowdepth... 22.....06.....0........0.....0...2/13-14/2016 15......-1.....0........0.....0 35.....13.....0........0.....0 ....................................................................... 17.....09.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/2004 18.....02.....0........0.....0 24.....01.....0........0.....0 .................................................................... 29.....06...0.06...2.5......3"...1/9-11/2004 15.....01...0.09...3.2......5" 27.....07.....0........0.......4" ........................................................................ 42.....32.....T........T........3".....1/25-27/1994 32.....05...0.32...4.5.......7"... 31.....00...0.06...0.1.......7" ......................................................................... 35.....04...0.22...1.0.......5"1/18-20/1994 10......-2.....0........0........5" 15.....00.....0........0........5" ....................................................................... 23.....04...0.02...0.5.......3"....1/20-22/1985 09......-2.....0........0........3" 31.....09.....0........0........3" .......................................... ............................................................................ 35.....19.....0........0.....6" 1/16-18/1982 19.....00.....0........0.....5" 15.....00.....0........0.....5" .......................................................................... 37.....20...0.10...1.0.....1"...12/24-26/1980 20......-1.....0........0......T 23.....08.....0........0......T ............................................................................. 13.....04.....0........0......3"...2/17-19/1979 17.....00.....0........0......3" 28.....17...0.85" 12.7" 16" ............................................................................. 26.....07...0.06...0.6.....6"...1/16-18/1977 12......-2.....0........0......6" 13.....02.....0........0......6" .......................................................................... 28.....05.....0........0.......1"...1/22-24/1976 15......-1.....T........T........1" 22.....14.....0........0........1" ............................................................................. 13.....02.....0........0.......3"..1/8-10/1968 14......-1...0.03...0.4......3" 17.....03.....T........T........3" ............................................................................ 44.....25.....0........0.....0...2/7-9/1963 25......-2.....0........0.....0 34.....11......T........T.....0 ......................................................................... 24.....03.....0........0.....8"...2/1-3/1961 20......-2.....0........0.....8" 28.....07...0.60...6.0...14" .......................................................................... 23.....06.....0........0.....0...1/14-16/1957 12.....00...0.06...2.0....2" 25.....11...0.16...2.9....4" ........................................................................ 28.....10...0.30...3.6.....4"..2/2-4/1955 17.....00.....0........0......3" 37.....08.....0........0......3" ........................................................................ 24.....04.....0........0.......9"1/30-2/1/1948 20.....00.....0........0.......9" 26.....09.....0........0.......9" ......................................................................... 30.....05.....0........0.......2"..2/14-16/1943 08......-8.....0........0.......2"... 22.....04.....0........0.......1" .......................................................................... 25.....08.....T........T.......1"...12/19-21/1942 08......-4.....0........0.......1" 21......-1.....0........0.......1" ........................................................................... 24......-3.....T.........T.......5".....1/23-25/1936 16.....04.....0.........0.......5" 20.....08.....0.........0.......5" ........................................................................... 18.....02.....0.........0.....11".....1/27-29/1935 25......-1.....0.........0....10" 34.....16.....T.........T.......8" .......................................................................... 21......-7.....0.........0.......3".....2/8-10/1934 08....-15.....0.........0.......3" 26......-2.....0.........0.......3" .......................................................................... 12......-3.....0.........0.......9".....12/29-31/1933 15......-6.....T.........T.......9" 42.....15.....0.........0.......7" ........................................................................ 36.....03.....0.........0.......0.....1/25-27/1927 25......-1.....0.........0.......0 44.....22...0.02".....T.......0 ......................................................................... 42.....04...0.60"...4.9"...10".....1/27-29/1925 14......-2...0.02"...0.2"...10" 34.....13...0.75"...1.3"...11" ......................................................................... 30.....05...0.04"...0.4".....4".....2/16-18/1922 17......-2.....0.........0......4" 34.....08.....0.........0......4" ........................................................................ 26......-1.....0.........0.......3".....1/31-2/2/1920 24......-2.....T.........T.......3" 40.....22.....0.........0.......2" ........................................................................... 21.....01...0.05"...1.8".....2".....12/17-19/1919 11......-1.....0.........0.......2" 20.....10...0.11"...1.9".....3" ........................................................................... 31.....00.....0.........0........6".......2/4-6/1918 04......-6.....0.........0........6" 38.....01.....0.........0........5" ........................................................................... 08......-6.....0.12"...2.0".....3".....12/29-1/4 1917-18 02.....-13......0.........0.......3" 06......-7.......0.........0.......3" 10......-4.......0.........0.......3" 10.....02.......T.........T.......3" 12.....00.......0.........0.......2" 18......-3.......0.........0.......2" ............................................. 23.....08.....0.........0........0......2/11-13/1917 12.....03.....0.........0........0 24.....00.....0.........0........0 ............................................ 21.....02......T.........T.......T.....2/11-13/1914 10......-3......0........0.......T 26......-1...0.29"....1.6"....2" ............................................... 33.....09......T.........T.......0.....01/12-14/1914 09......-3......0........0.......0 18......-5......0........0.......0 ............................................ 19.....05....0.35"....3.5"....3".....1/12-14/1912 08......-3......0.........0.......3" 23.....02......0.........0.......2" ......................................... 26.....12......0.........0.......T.....2/9-11/1912 13.....00......0.........0.......T 21......-1......0.........0.......T .............................................. 11......-2.......0........0.....6" est...2/9-13/1899 07......-6.......0........0.....6" est 09......-2.......0........0.....6" est 09.....04.....0.23....5.3...10" est 11.....06.....0.47...10.7...20" est .............................................. 44.....06.....0.02....0.5....T...2/16-18/1896 07......-5........0........0.....T 26.....01........0........0.....T ..................................................................... 18.....06........0........0.....0...1/5-7/1896 12......-2........0........0.....0 25.....06........0........0.....0 ............................................... 11.....00........0........0....3" est...2/5-8/1895 10......-4.......0........0....3" est 13.....06.....0.17....2.5..5" est 08.....02.....0.13....2.5..7" est ............................................... 16.....01........0........0.....T est...1/21-23/1888 14.....00........0........0.....T est 24.....07........0........0.....T est ............................................. 12.....00.....0.10....1.0"....4" est...2/4-6/1886 07......-4........0........0......4" est 20.....03.....0.01"....0.2"...4" est ............................................... 16.....07........0........0.....3" est...1/11-13/1886 08.....02........0........0.....2" est 14.....02........0........0.....2" est... ............................................... 16......-1........0........0.....T...12/19-21/1884 07......-3........0........0.....T 36.....07........0........0.....T ................................................... 25.....10........0........0.....6" est...12/22-24/1883 10......-1.....0.01....0.1....6" est 31.....07.....0.80....7.5"..12" est .............................................. 13.....00........0........0.....0-t est 1/23-25/1882 06......-6........0........0.....0 29.....03.....0.32....0.5....T est... .......................................... 21.....03.....0.10....2.0"est 4" est...2/1-3/1881 09......-3........0........0......3" est 18.....01........0........0......3" est ....................................... 32.....10........0.........0......T est...12/28-1/1/1880-81 10.....04.....0.28....4.0".....4" est 04......-6........0.........0......3" est 10.....03........0.........0......3" est 16.....01........0.........0......2" est .......................................... 33.....03.....0.15"....0.0"....2" est...1/2-4/1879 07......-4........0.........0......2" est 26.....06........0.........0......1" est .............................................. coldest days on record for KNYC...Max in single digits... date...............max min mean 12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5 12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5 12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0 12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5 12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0 12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5 01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5 01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0 01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5 01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0 01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5 01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0 02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0 02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0 02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5 02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0 02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5 02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5 02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5 02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5 02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0 02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

up here in the Poconos we got 2" of snow that changed to rain now...drizzle now...

NYC's coldest max this winter is 25 in late January...it makes two years in a row with 25 being the coldest max...coldest max in NYC in modern times was the nine max in January 1985...2019-20 as bad as it was did have a very cold outbreak with a max of 14 and another teen max in January...2017-18 had five days with a max in the teens...the most in recent years is six in 1978-79 and 1981-82... winters total teen max and lowest max for NYC...2001-02 has the highest... 2020-21...0....25 2019-20...0....25 2018-19...2....14 2017-18...5....13 2016-17...0....23 2015-16...1....15 2014-15...1....19 2013-14...3....17 2012-13...0....20 2011-12...0....27. 2010-11...0....23. 2009-10...0....20 2008-09...1....16 2007-08...0....20 2006-07...1....18 2005-06...0....24 2004-05...2....18 2003-04...4....15 2002-03...1....15 2001-02...0....31 2000-01...0....25 1999-00...1....19 1998-99...0....25. 1997-98...0....29. 1996-97...1....17 1995-96...3....17 1994-95...0....20 1993-94...5....10 1992-93...0....27 1991-92...0....23 1990-91...0....20 1989-90...1....18 1988-89...0....20. 1987-88...1....17 1986-87...1....19 1985-86...0....22 1984-85...1......9 1983-84...3....13 1982-83...0....21 1981-82...6....15 1980-81...3....14 1979-80...0....21 1978-79...6....13 1977-78...0....21 1976-77...5....12 1975-76...2....15 1974-75...0....27 1973-74...0....22 1972-73...1....18. 1971-72...1....15 1970-71...4....12 1969-70...3....14 1968-69...0....22 1967-68...4....13 1966-67...1....16 1965-66...1....19 1964-65...3....16 1963-64...0....22 1962-63...1....13 1961-62...0....24 1960-61...2....19 1959-60...0....23 1958-59...0....22 1957-58...2....10 1956-57...1....12 1955-56...1....18 1954-55...1....17 1953-54...0....21 1952-53...0....29. 1951-52...0....20 1950-51...0....20 1949-50...0....22 1948-49...0....22. 1947-48...2....18. ...................................................................... 1942-43...2......8. 1935-36...4....16 1934-35...5....16 1933-34...6......8. 1917-18.12......2.

thats what a good negative ao will do....Feb 1969 was the same way...

the coldest 30 days was from 1/23 to 2/21 averaging 30.45 in NYC...normal or average is around 28.0...over the last 30 years 2003-04 had the coldest 30 days averaging 22.5 and 2019-20 had the highest average of 38.0...

a little ot but I had a problem with NYC's snow depth for 2014 and 2015...it seems like they take snow depth in the shade...I'm using Newark from now on for snow depth...

1956 had a similar AO shift in late February but got negative again on 3/17...just in time for two snowstorms... 1956 2 1 0.050 1956 2 2 -0.210 1956 2 3 -0.904 1956 2 4 -1.606 1956 2 5 -1.206 1956 2 6 -1.260 1956 2 7 -2.267 1956 2 8 -2.174 1956 2 9 -2.722 1956 2 10 -3.624 1956 2 11 -3.660 1956 2 12 -3.444 1956 2 13 -4.092 1956 2 14 -4.552 1956 2 15 -4.564 1956 2 16 -3.793 1956 2 17 -3.450 1956 2 18 -3.655 1956 2 19 -3.702 1956 2 20 -3.792 1956 2 21 -3.627 1956 2 22 -2.998 1956 2 23 -1.752 1956 2 24 -0.916 1956 2 25 -0.129 1956 2 26 0.484 1956 2 27 1.265 1956 2 28 2.334 1956 2 29 3.227 1956 3 1 4.445 1956 3 2 4.692 1956 3 3 3.630 1956 3 4 2.014 1956 3 5 0.764 1956 3 6 0.652 1956 3 7 1.060 1956 3 8 1.336 1956 3 9 0.682 1956 3 10 0.588 1956 3 11 1.374 1956 3 12 1.490 1956 3 13 1.033 1956 3 14 0.755 1956 3 15 0.286 1956 3 16 0.062 1956 3 17 -0.288 1956 3 18 -0.259 1956 3 19 -0.010 1956 3 20 -0.006 1956 3 21 -0.496 1956 3 22 -0.783 1956 3 23 -1.002 1956 3 24 -1.116 1956 3 25 -1.385 1956 3 26 -1.444 1956 3 27 -0.810 1956 3 28 -0.839 1956 3 29 -1.020 1956 3 30 -0.648 1956 3 31 -0.696 1956 4 1 -0.638 1956 4 2 -0.121 1956 4 3 0.063 1956 4 4 0.006 1956 4 5 -0.530 1956 4 6 -1.337 1956 4 7 -1.806 1956 4 8 -1.871

since 2000 we have seen five very warm March's and five cold March's...five March's with at least 8" of snow and five with no measurable snow... warmest March... year.....Temp....snowfall 2012.....50.9.....0 2016.....48.9...0.9" 2010.....48.2.....T 2020.....48.0.....T 2000.....47.2...0.4" Coldest... 2014.....37.7...0.1" 2015.....38.1..18.6" 2017.....39.2.....9.7' 2005.....39.4.....6.9" 2001.....39.6.....3.8" snowiest.... 2015.....38.1...18.6" 2018.....40.1...11.6" 2019.....41.7...10.4" 2017.....39.2.....9.7" 2009.....42.4.....8.3" least snowiest... 2012.....48.2.....0 2002.....44.1.....T 2008.....42.6.....T 2010.....48.2.....T 2020.....48.0.....T

1972 started March with a record high of 73 breaking the old rlr it was 10 degrees...72 the next day...63 the next but the temp dropped to 26 by midnight and 17 the next morning...add in a little snow and slippery roads with that...mid March saw two sleet storms...April saw record cold and a dusting of snow...March 1974 hit 70 around the 4th and 8th...a few days later it was 20 degrees...March 74 had a late season snowstorm...April had a morning with record cold and a half inch of snow...both months ended up below normal...

1987 and 1994 from my front window on 64st and 12th Ave Brooklyn...

January and February 2005 had warmth the first half of the month and snow and cold the second half...most of the snowiest winters had at least four storms 4" or more...this year did it...2017-18 also...

5.7" in NYC...

it was 69 on this date in 1997...6" of snow fell in 2008 for the daily record...it was 8 degrees in 1963 as that cold wimter kept going...Philadelphia had 7" of snow on this date in 2001...

NYC needs 2.0" by March 1st for 30"...I guess its possible if they measure right...it looks like the last two small events were under measured...again...

it looks like NYC will fall short of 30" in 30 days...as of today Newark NJ has 32.8" since 1/31... 30" in 30 days... .......Newark... .....2/13-3/14, 1914.....32.5" .....12/26-1/24/48.......42.1" .....1/15-2/13, 1961......44.8" ....1/16-2/14, 1978.....44.9" ......2/8-3/9, 1994........28.6"**est...suspect 2/11/94 totals...official total 38.6"...snow depth don't add up... ....12/14/95-1/12/96...42.7" ....1/20-2/18, 2003.....30.7" ....1/28-2/26, 2010......34.0" ..12/26-1/24, 2011.....42.1" ...1/21-2/19, 2014.......41.7" ...1/17-2/15, 2016.......30.9" ...1/26-2/24, 2021.......33.3"...as of 2/22

looking at the ao forecast its going to stay positive for a while...1974 had a negative ao value but not as great as this year was...Feb 1974 went negative to positive around the 21st and stayed there for two weeks or so...March 74 saw the ao go negative again by mid March...there was a late season snowfall in late March 74 and a little snow and cold in April...If the ao remains positive throughout March it probably will end up as one of the warmest...at this point with twice as much snow as 1973-74 bring on the warmth...

this winter was a la nina +QBO winter...similar winters were...66-67 added... 1966 -21.90 -17.14 -11.07 -2.33 2.16 5.42 7.47 7.63 9.23 11.00 11.74 13.26 1967 11.03 10.49 10.94 10.13 5.79 -0.58 -5.65 -6.76 -6.06 -4.82 -6.05 -7.27 1971 -10.67 -3.67 0.91 3.75 6.77 8.28 8.88 8.34 8.95 8.48 8.47 9.10 1972 8.20 7.95 7.35 6.22 -2.59 -10.70 -15.45 -19.28 -20.40 -21.17 -20.49 -16.78 1975 -16.70 -15.39 -13.04 -5.12 1.18 4.47 7.41 9.06 10.25 10.65 11.27 10.95 1976 9.22 8.92 9.70 11.53 10.04 2.78 -1.90 -4.89 -6.19 -8.23 -8.89 -11.85 1985 -0.37 4.21 6.30 11.11 13.57 14.04 11.10 11.08 11.72 11.84 11.45 9.51 1986 8.74 10.15 11.96 9.11 3.56 -2.15 -5.25 -9.60 -10.21 -9.60 -8.01 -10.51 2008 -12.42 -4.70 2.19 6.43 11.53 13.45 13.27 11.63 11.60 11.05 9.13 10.46 2009 10.71 12.33 11.44 9.11 1.56 -5.47 -12.21 -14.45 -13.81 -11.69 -13.83 -15.57 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 2011 9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -3.18 -10.48 -14.42 -15.28 -16.79 -17.20 -18.12 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86 -2.78 0.34 4.78 7.95 10.80 11.15 10.37 2021 10.19 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999

some analogs like 1972 and 1974 had temperatures in the 70's the first week in March...I think both months ended up colder than normal...1972 had two mixed events and 1974 a late winter storm...April offered no help until the second half of the month...