uncle W

NYC October temperature and precipitation...... decade....Ave.......high..low......Ave.max/min...max...min..ave Rainfall/snowfall 1870's.....55.5.......60.3....50.6......76.0...34.1......85...29......3.55"...0.1" 1880's.....53.9.......58.8....48.6......77.0...34.1......87...29......3.17".....0 1890's.....55.5.......59.5....52.5......77.4...37.3......87...34......3.59".....0 1900's.....57.2.......61.3....52.7......77.1...37.5......82...32......4.39".....0 1910's.....57.9.......59.4....53.0......80.1...37.1......87...32......4.41".....0 1920's.....56.8.......61.1....50.6......81.4...35.3......90...29......3.39"...0.1" 1930's.....57.4.......61.3....54.5......81.2...36.3......91...28......3.22".....T 1940's.....58.7.......63.6....53.8......84.9...37.8......94...30......2.42".....T 1950's.....58.6.......61.7....55.5......83.6...38.0......88...33......3.68"...0.1" 1960's.....58.2.......61.8....55.0......82.2...35.3......86...31......2.45".....T 1970's.....56.9.......62.7....52.9......78.1...35.7......88...29......3.88".....T 1980's.....57.0.......61.8....52.8......78.5...37.2......84...31......4.01".....0 1990's.....57.7.......61.9....54.5......79.1...38.8......86...34......3.85".....0 2000's.....57.0.......63.6....55.0......79.1...38.1......87...36......5.23".....T 2010's.....59.2.......64.1....57.1......81.9...39.1......93...33......4.20"....0.3" 2020.......57.9...............................74.0...32.0......74...32......5.05".....0 1870--- 2019.......57.2................................79.8...37.4.....94...28......3.70"......T 1990--- 2019.......58.0................................80.0...38.7.....93...33......4.43"...0.1"

lucky for us the enso is slightly weaker than 2011-12 and the QBO was twice as strong but fading...This year's QBO was getting stronger as of last month...

hopefully its not during the winter like 2012...

its done...

the front for the win...

Dan Rather lives there?...

models aside with six days left there is plenty of time for a front or pop up shower to do the trick...

what's the frequency?...

NYC has 33.78" so far since June 1st...2011 had 34.62"...1975 had 31.72"...

NYC average minimums... 1950-59...6.7... 1960-69...4.8... 1970-79...4.7... 1980-89...3.5... 1990-99...7.1... 2000-09...9.0... 2010-19...6.6... last two years had a min of 14...

my pool is still open...a nice three day warmth spell would be nice before it closes Oct 10th... 1967 was cool in Sept...much cooler than this year... IPS-1BD83742-5475-4643-81C9-ACA5CC93FE4D.pdf (noaa.gov)

I was 36 when Gloria hit Long Island...the most hyped storm before the internet...

it was a hot summer despite low 90 degree numbers from Central Park...the 11 year hot summer or what ever you want to call it goes on...the only thing I would say about that is this summer doesn't stand out like 1944, 1955 1966 and 1977 did...it seems like every summer is an 11 year hot summer so its becoming the norm...

1994-95 was a one storm winter for NYC...it also had the least amount of snowfall in NYC going into February... NYC's dates for the least amount of snow... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

last year had some good blocking and NYC had above average snowfall and a major storm...temps were not that cold but cold enough... I made this chart for NYC la nina winters and weak neg winters and the average arctic oscillation for Dec-Mar... ...black is near average...red above average temps...below average snowfall...blue is below average temps and above average snowfall...neg ao in blue...pos ao in red...30 day cold is the coldest 30 straight days... winters............DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2020-21.............-1.0.............-0.825.........36.1...14...........30.4.........38.6"..........10.5" 17.4" 4.5" 4.4"... 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" ................................................................................................................................................................. weak la nina or weak negative years... 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1"

blocking used to mean cold but now its mostly snow...

I don't have Newark's monthly and annual snowfall on hand so I'll use NYC snowfall after Newark having 40 days 90 or higher and above average snowfall... 1959-60..above average 1983-84...average 1993-94...way above average... 2002-03...way above average... 2010-11...way above average... 2016-17...above average... 2021-22...??? ...................................... two other 40 days 90 or above years were 1988-89, 1991-92...they had below average snowfall ...

89 max today and yesterday...if these high dew points continue into winter we'll get our share of snow...another foot or more storm?...the last four winters with 30" or more were not cold winters on average...2014-15 was the last cold-snowy winter and it was a late starter...

1962-65 had less than 20 days with a min of 70 or higher...only 8 in 1962...1992 had 14...the last time Central Park had less than 20...in the 1960's 30 or more would be a lot...now 30 is a low number...

this September reminds me of 2005...enso was weaker in 2005 and the qbo was in a stronger easterly state...the QBO weakened by winter...We did see a fast start to winter but it left before Christmas and didn't return till February...other years with a stronger qbo were... 1970...1974...2007...2011...these la nina years with a stronger easterly qbo than 2021 lestened by winter...years like 2017, 2000, 1983, 1962 and had an easterly qbo similar to this year and were a little stronger by winter...1956 was a little weaker but not that much...qbo easterly years that were stronger by winter were snowier than the ones that became weaker by wiinter...

those are the states that legalized pot...

Brooklyn got 9" in Feb 1958 and LGA 10.1"...NYC was on the low side for the Jan 1961 storm...most got a foot but NYC 9.9"...

you don't get anywhere with slurs and threats...that's the problem now if people don't agree with each other...