uncle W

I have a gecko living in front of my house… I uploaded the pictures on two other sites but it won’t take here…

a look at years with a warm October and how the fall progressed...

warm Oct/Nov/Dec

1953...

1973...

1990...

Warm Oct cold Nov mild Dec...

1949...

1959...

1971...

1984...

2007...

2013...

2014...

warm Oct/Nov...Cold Dec...

1950...

1961...

1963...

1975...

1985...

warm Oct Cold Nov/Dec...

1954...

1955...

1968...

1995...

2017...

53 minutes ago, rclab said:

The pot stirrers rejoice. As always…..

I got my snowman19 vaccination last year...

last February was one of the best for snow cover...this is how it stacks up with the best...

February at Newark......

year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..

2021.....17..17....17....14...11...9....13..12....11..11..13..12..11..10....8....5....3....5....5....5....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0

2017......T....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....8....6....5....3....2....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…..

2015......5....8....8....8....7....7....7....6....6....6....6....6....5....5....6....5....8....7....6....5....9....8....5....5....5....4....4....4...…...

2014......T....T....8....7...10...9....8....8....9....9....9....8...17..18..17..16..16..16..15..13..10...9....4....1....T....T.....t.....0...…...

2011.....15..15..14..13..13..11...9....6....5....4....3....2....1....1....0....0....0....0....t.....0....3....2....1....t.....0....0....0....0...…...

2010......0....1....2....0....t.....T....0....0....T...13..11...8....8....7....6....8....7....7....6....2....0....t.....t.....0....7...12...9....6...…...

year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..

2006......0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....0....t.....3...20..14..10...9....4....1....t.....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....T...…...

2005......7....6....5....5....4....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....0....2....5....3....1....4....6....6....1....6...…..

2003......0....0....0....0....t.....t.....6....5....4....4....3....3....3....3....2....5...22..23..19..15..13..10...5....2....2....1....1....1...…...

1996......T....1....7....7....6....5....4....4....1....0....0....t.....0....2....t.....0....9....9....5....3....2....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...

year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..

1995......0....0....0....9....5....5....5....4....4....4....2....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....0....t.....0....0....t.....0....1....T....0...……...

1994......T....T....T....T....T.....T....T....9...10...9...18..18..17..15..15..13..10..10...9....6....1....T....2....1....1....2....1....T...…….

1987......5....4....3....2....1....T....0....0....T....T.....T....2....2....2....1....T....T....T....T.....0....0....0....4....1....T....0....0....0...…..

1986......T....0....0....2....1....0....6....7....5....4....8....7....5....5....5....4....4....2....T.....0....0....0....t.....T....T....0....0....0...…...

1985......1....3....3....3....6....6....6....6....6....6....5....3....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…...

1983......0....0....0....t.....0....3....5....5....4....4...17..19..17..11...9....8....6....3....1....T.....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...…...

year......01..02..03..04..05..06..07..08..09..10..11..12..13..14..15..16..17..18..19..20..21..22..23..24..25..26..27..28..29..

1979......0....0....0....0....0....0....6....6....4....4....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....3...19..19..15...7....3....1....T....T....T....T...……….

1978......T....T....T....T....T....18..19..17..15..13..12..11...9....8....8....6....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....4....2....1....1...….......

1975......t.....0....0....T....3....2....t.....0....T....T....t.....9....8....6....5....3....1....T....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0....0...0.........

1972......T....T....T....0....0....3....3....2....2....2....1....T....0....0....0....0.....1....T....3....2....2....1....4....4....2....1....T....T...0....

1969......T....0....t.....T....T.....0....0....t....13..14..13..11...9....8....8....7....5....4....4....4....4....3....3....3....2....1....1....1...........

1967......T....t.....0....t.....0....4...15..14..12..13..12...9....7....6....4....T....T....2....T....T.....1....0....3....1....1....T....T....1........

1966......7....9....8....6....5....4....3....3....2....1....T....0....0....0....0....1....0....0....T....T.....0....0....0....3....4....3....2....T.......

1964......T....0....0....0....0....0....0....1....T....3....2....2....T....T.....1....1....T....T....6....5....3....2....1....T....T.....T....T....3....3....

1961......7....7...14..26..25..21..16..12..11...9....8....7....7....5....4....4....3....2....1....0....0....0....0....0....0....t.....0....t...…….

1958......1....T....t.....T....0....0....1....1....T.....0....0....t.....0....0....4...13..13...9....8....6....6....5....3....2....1....T....T....0......

1948......7....5....6...11..11..11..10..10..10...9....9....8....7....5....4....3....1....T....T....T.....0....3....2....1....T....0....0....t.....0

1947......0....t.....0....1....1....1....T....7....6....3....1....T....T....T....T....T.....T....0....0....8...11..10...9....8....6....5....3....3.....

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. We haven’t had a stretch like that since 14-15. What made it even better was how our area was in the sweet spot all month. 
 

NYC for February 2021

26 inches of snow 

-1.7 below avg temp 

terrible...

so far the lowest temp for this October is 47...45 is the record tied in 1971...

45 in 1946....great February with a major storm...

45 in 1971.....very good February...

44 in 2004.....very good winter with a major storm in January...

43 in 1994.....good February in a bad winter...

43 in 1927.....lousy winter...

43 in 2019.....horrible winter...

good winter...

12/9-12.....1-2"...

12/19-20...1-2"...

12/24-25...6-8"...

12/31-1/1...6-8"...

1/12............3-6"...

2/6-8..........foot or more...

2/15...........3-6"...

3/5.............3-6"...

4/1...............1-2"...

total..........36-52"......

the bubble will burst and it will get cold and even snow...the question is when...in 1998 it took until Dec 20th...if the pattern does reverse in November it might reverse back to warmer than average again in December...1971 did that...

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember when Eastern Troughs  at the end of October actually had some decent cold. This time the Pacific is very unfavorable. The -NAO blocking is also pressing pretty far south near New England.

 

 

Like last year

warm la nina Octobers and the following winter snowfall...

1908-09...20.3"...

1949-50...13.8"...

1950-51...11.6"...

1954-55...11.5"...

1955-56...35.0"...

1971-72...21.9"...

1973-74...23.5"...

1984-85...24.1"...

1995-96...75.6"...

2007-08...11,9"...

2017-18...40.9"...

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC.

La Niña years bolded

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
2020	0.0	0
2019	0.0	0
2018	6.4	0
2017	T	0
2016	T	0
2015	0.0	0
2014	0.2	0
2013	T	0
2012	4.7	0
2011	0.0	0
2010	T	0
2009	0.0	0
2008	T	0
2007	T	0
2006	0.0	0
2005	T	0
2004	T	0
2003	0.0	0
2002	T	0
2001	0.0	0
2000	0.0	0

1995 was the last time a la nina November that had snow...1950, 1951 and 1971 had big storms but with very little snow in the city...upstate New York was clobbered around thanksgiving 1971...

I remember back in 1971 when October was warm to the end...November turned out colder than normal with record cold...December reverted back to warmer than normal...it took until late January for real winter pattern to lock in for a month...like last year February was the coldest snowiest month...the real winter pattern was locked in for a month...1995-96 was locked in from 12/9 to 1/12...then a pause...then three more weeks the beginning of February and on and off in March ...

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sample size is really small. 1970-71 and 1973-74 were fairly cold, but not severely cold.

1970-71 was pretty cold from Christmas into the first week of Feb...its one of the coldest for that period...

hope my math is correct... her is the list...

year...Dec 20th-Feb 6th...

1976-77.....23.6...

1947-48.....25.9...

1980-81.....25.9...

1969-70.....26.4...

1993-94.....26.8...

1970-71.....26.9...

1960-61.....27.2...

1975-76.....28.4...

1995-96.....28.7...

1977-78.....28.8...

1983-84.....29.3...

1962-63.....29.4...

2010-11.....29.5...

1967-68.....29.8

Octobers averaged 58.5 from 1940-1969... 1970-2009 it was 57.1...since 2010 its over 59.0...The same goes for the fall in general...it was a steady average until the 2010's...Now does Octobers get cooler, stablize or keep getting milder?...only time will tell...

October 24th-27th, 1963...77/79/78/82 max...

October 20th-23rd, 1947...80/83/74/85 max...

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but this has lasted longer.....compare Dec 2009 through October 2012.....so much excitement, two epic winters and two epic summers and an October snowstorm to cap it all off!

 

Dec 59 to Feb 61 yielded five major snowstorms and hurricane Donna which was one of the greatest hurricanes to hit this area...1959 was the first white Christmas in NYC in 11 years...

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the weather now is MUCH more exciting than it was back then

 

if you lived through the March 1960 to Feb 1961 period you wouldn't say that...

years ago a very negative AO ment very cold at the time...now it yields a snowstorm...

Feb 1969 and Feb 2020 had the lowest AO number after a major storm...Dec 2009 had a snowstorm in progress and 2011 would get one ten days later...even March 2018 had major storms after the AO minimum...

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

What’s the new average now almost 30” right?

I think its 29.9 but rounded months get it to 30.0...long term ave is 27.5...

its insect warfare...

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Did the same for the Farmington co-op's 129 years.  There are 27 years with August as the warmest month, including 2021.   The 26 winters following averaged 89.47" compared to the over average of 89.71" - not much to see there.

Number of times:
40s    1   (2015-16)
50s    2
60s    5
70s    2 
80s    4
90s    4
100s   1
110s   2
120s   4
130s   0
140s   1   (2000-01)

August 2021 was warmest by 4.2°, easily the largest span of the 27 warm Augusts, so winter 21-22 may be charting new ground.  Only 3 previous Augusts were warmest by more than 2°.  Year, difference and following winter:  1969/3.1°/90.4"; 2001/3.3°/80.7"; 2009/2.5°/62.4".  One average one BN, one ratter, average 77.8".   SSS but not looking great.

Even worse using my location, as August was warmest in 2001, 02, 03, 09 and 2015.  Those years averaged 65.2" compared to my overall 89.0" and included 2 BN (barely better than the -20% ratter line), 2 ratters, and 15-16 with 48.2" which doesn't even rise to ratter status.
 

your bads are our goods...28" for NYC is average snowfall...

10 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Another one I saw a few years ago but had a small sample size so it wasn’t trustworthy was that if the August temperature averaged warmer than July in NYC and BOS that it almost always correlated to a mild winter.  84-85 and 01-02 I recall were two of the standout cases of it but total I think only 10-12 years were in the sample so it may have been just randomness   

I did a quick check of years when August was the warmest month...I found 33 years...average snow for the 33 years is 28"...some great years snow wise were 1947, 1960 and 2009...some lousy years...2001, 1918 and 1877....

number of times...

+60".....1

+50".....2

+40".....3

+30".....7

+20"...11

+10".....6

-10"....3

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

uhm Kennedy and Newark radiate MUCH better than either NYC or LGA, I have seen JFK sometimes be 10 degrees colder for lows than LGA and 5-6 degreed colder than NYC, and I've been 5-6 degrees colder than JFK and I'm 4 miles to its SE.

 

130ft difference in elevation and a shaded probe...

10 hours ago, Rjay said:

Do you have stats from the 1400s though?

tree rings and sediments...