ChescoWx

First measurable snow of the season here in NW Chester County - still snowing steadily

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

Latest European models 1/2 inch across SE Chesco to as much as 3" in NW Chesco and on up to the LV

Latest European

The 6z Euro ensemble and probability of 1" of snow. For Chesco from 40% in SE to 70% in NW....if I was a betting man or forecaster I would take the under. I suspect mainly rain to a slushy inch until North of ABE.

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

This morning was the coldest morning (26.1) here in East Nantmeal since last April 9th at 25.8. Warwick was the area cold spot at 22.1 degrees this morning. Sunny and chilly today with highs struggling to escape the 30's in the hills with low 40's in the valleys. Clouds increase tonight with some light snow or a mix of rain/snow arriving tomorrow morning before a quick change to plain rain. Monday looks sunny before snow arrives toward Tuesday morning. We should see a pretty steady transition from snow to rain from SE to NW across the area. The best chances for a small accumulation will be across far NW Chester County and into Berks and Lehigh counties. We keep temperatures well below normal all week with the coldest weather of the season arriving to close out the week. Temperatures on Friday may not even reach freezing for high temperatures.

A wee bit different take at the 850mb level between the GFS and European 12z....if GFS is right it rains up to MPO.

Both the Euro and GFS have the Miller B type low developing pretty far south off the NC border - a bit unusual as in recent years we have seen lows forming more north and east. Euro a bit more strung out but would if to be believed give most folks N and W of 95 their 1st measurable snow before any mix or change to rain.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! With the passage of last night’s cold front, we will now see a sustained period of colder than normal temperatures. Of note November will finish as another below normal temperature month. This will be the 3rd below average temperature month over the last 4 months with only September finishing with above average temperatures. Today looks mostly cloudy and breezy with the sun returning tomorrow and Saturday. Rain arrives by Sunday afternoon and ends in the evening. We then see a chance of snow arriving by Tuesday morning before it is likely to turn to rain from south to north during the day Tuesday.

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

All 3 of the major ensemble or average runs of the European / GFS and Canadian all have some measurable snow on average on Tuesday.

12z Euro ensembles only a couple panels with any somewhat significant snow

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

Rain arrives this afternoon and continues through tonight. Additional shower chances but unseasonably warm tomorrow with highs in the 60's. Our well-advertised pattern change to colder starts tomorrow night. This will usher an extended period of for the most part colder than normal weather that should last through at least the first 10 days of December.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

The sun finally is out there today! Enjoy as we may not see it too much after today until Turkey Day. Rain arrives tomorrow afternoon and looks to continue for at least part of the day on Wednesday. We turn sunny and cold for Thanksgiving weekend with highs from Thursday through Saturday struggling to escape the 30's to near 40 degrees in most spots.

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

After a frosty start in spots, we should see sunny skies with temperatures not too far from normal for both today and tomorrow. Rain chances increase by Tuesday afternoon with some spots seeing the potential for up to 0.50" of rain before it ends on Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like our one warmer day before we turn back to well below normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving Holiday and weekend.

Some additional details on White Christmas history and probabilities across Chester and SE Berks Counties including the storm dates and snow amounts on the ground both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.