ChescoWx

Now this is funny and true....how many of these comments are thrown at climate realists by climate alarmists??

For folks clamoring for more analysis and debate over real vs altered climate data come on over to the new thread under climate change!

Below is a great illustration of how the post observation NOAA/NCEI adjustments are skewing the analysis. They are continuing to warm even the current decade - following the chilling adjustments made to the hottest summer decades back in the 1930's thru 1950's. If you believe the red NCEI trends we are warming pretty quickly....if the actual raw blue data is viewed....almost flat! No summer warming here in Chester County PA....

Below is a great illustration of how the post observation NOAA/NCEI adjustments are skewing the analysis. They are continuing to warm even the current decade - following the chilling adjustments made to the hottest summer decades back in the 1930's thru 1950's. If you believe the red NCEI trends we are warming pretty quickly....if the actual raw blue data is viewed....almost flat! No summer warming here in Chester County PA....

The only "mischief" is the baseless bias adjustments for TOBS and other estimated post hoc bias adjustments! We have seen these baseless tweaks applied even for places like Coatesville with no such TOBS bias. As always the actual real data shows the truth there is of course no climate emergency in any of the actual real world analysis....heck there is not even a crisis!! Only hand waving fear mongering for clear simple cyclical gentle climate change Hey Charlie - where is that reverse heat island adjustments you mention above for Coatesville and West Chester?? We only see traditional heat island cooling adjustments no reverse UHI warming adjustments???

Some beneficial rains overnight across all of Chester County amounts ranged between 0.23" at Nottingham to as much as 0.84" over in Atglen. Today should be drier and maybe even some sun breaks. Rain chances increase again tonight through Thursday before we dry out for what looks like a great weekend! Daily records for today: High 104 degrees at West Chester (2011) / Low 47 degrees in Phoenixville (1947) / Rain 4.93" at Phoenixville (1927)

Some beneficial rains overnight across all of Chester County amounts ranged between 0.23" at Nottingham to as much as 0.84" over in Atglen. Today should be drier and maybe even some sun breaks. Rain chances increase again tonight through Thursday before we dry out for what looks like a great weekend! Daily records for today: High 104 degrees at West Chester (2011) / Low 47 degrees in Phoenixville (1947) / Rain 4.93" at Phoenixville (1927)

Below a chart and thoughts from @ChrisMartzWX He looks at the entire US focused on the same topic I have been analyzing for Chester County PA - actual vs. adjusted data. "The actual thermometer data indicate that there has been little warming in the CONUS since 1895. Top 10 warmest years by raw data 1. 2012 2. 1921 3. 1931 4. 1934 5. 1998 6. 2016 7. 1953 8. 1938 9. 1939 10. 2015. "Pretty much all of the climate warming results from significant adjustments, to the data, most of which are due to the supposed “Time of Observation Bias” (TOBS). Essentially, government scientists think that hot days were double counted in the past because COOP station observers were too stupid to reset their min / max thermometers before they went to bed. If that were actually the case, it’d be a problem, but it would’ve been obvious right away to any station observer how these thermometers worked in a few days’ of using them. TOBS adjustments are based on assumptions that don’t have any basis in reality. That’s why the adjusted temperature data shouldn’t be used. I’m all for quality control, but the way in which thermometer data has been handled by bureaucrats is abhorrent."

The new home of all things concerning real vs.altered data....

Well i did finally find the ghost station data thanks to Meteorologist John Shewchuk and his site below - which according to John has now identified over 100 zombie or ghost stations https://noaacrappy.github.io/zombie-map/ It appears that some of these NCEI reported sites https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/v2.5/ are now ghosting or estimating data into retired stations that no longer report. In fact it seems we have an actual ghost station site right here in Chester County!! The old NWS COOP station West Chester 2 NW 369464 appears to have continued to report estimated monthly data for the last 7 years since the station was officially closed in 2017. Below is the latest average high temperature file today from NCEI for the West Chester Station. It lists the average high temps for every month since the 1880's. The highlights are when the estimates began following the station closing in 2017. So it looks like the latest reported Ghost West Chester Station 2NW had a reported average high last month of 30.36C or 86.6F. A quick review of the actual average across the county shows it was 83.7 degrees across 16 stations. The reality is only 1 of the 16 stations were anywhere close to 86.6 with 15 of the 16 were no closer than 1.5 to as much as 3 degrees cooler. Of interest that 1 station was you guessed it Phoenixville with that exact 86.6 average high temperature for June. So no doubt this has been discussed before but why do they use old closed stations? How are these estimates calculated? How are they used?

Funny how you always choose to ignore the 75 years before 1960. When we look at my analysis above we see no great warming or anything remotely satisfactory to meet the climate alarmist agenda. Also again you keep talking about the reverse heat island impact.....so where are the adjustments warming those sites?? I only see cooling adjustments?? Also Phoenixville as you know, is as atypical spot as you can find in Chester County. With it's unique combo of low elevation and UHI. The more rural stations are a better representation of the majority of the county topography and population.

Of course In line with NOAA.... but far from in line with the rest of the county climate. Phoenixville vs. Chesco without Phoenixville paints a much different warming story (see below). Phoenixville UHI warming is out of step with the rest of the county. The steadily increasing number of stations with these new stations still favor the older historical warmer relatively lower elevation spots like Coatesville and West Chester. However, NOAA is now continuing to warm the more recent periods to match the Phoenixville bias warm readings. Phoenixville has run between no less than 0.6 degrees and as much as 2.9 degrees warmer than the rest of Chester County for each of the last 25 years. Probably best to not use Phoenixville at all....especially if all NOAA is trying to do is make the rest of the county look like Phoenixville by warming every year to catch up to a warm outlier.

Quite a bit of rain fell across much of NW Chester and Southern Berks counties this AM. Amounts ranged from as little as almost nothing in Southern Chesco to almost 2 inches in Berks county. Some area amounts East Nantmeal 0.88" / Warwick Twp. 1.19" Chester Springs 0.62" to 1.67" at Spring City. Showers and storms are possible through much of the upcoming work week before clearly out Thursday night. Hopefully everyone sees some rain. Temperatures with the clouds and rain will be near normal (avg. is low to mid 80's) for highs and above normal for lows (avg. is mid 60's) Daily records for today: High 105 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 47 degrees at Phoenixville (1944) / Rain 3.26" at West Grove (2018)

Quite a bit of rain fell across much of NW Chester and Southern Berks counties this AM. Amounts ranged from as little as almost nothing in Southern Chesco to almost 2 inches in Berks county. Some area amounts East Nantmeal 0.88" / Warwick Twp. 1.19" Chester Springs 0.62" to 1.67" at Spring City. Showers and storms are possible through much of the upcoming work week before clearly out Thursday night. Hopefully everyone sees some rain. Temperatures with the clouds and rain will be near normal (avg. is low to mid 80's) for highs and above normal for lows (avg. is mid 60's) Daily records for today: High 105 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 47 degrees at Phoenixville (1944) / Rain 3.26" at West Grove (2018)

I want to point out that I cannot find any actual data as proof of what the above Meteorologist is saying about these so called "ghost stations"

And I am almost an inch lower that other NWS MADIS sites in the county.

Imagine actually believing that data used to make post hoc adjustments is based on stations that either do not actually exist or are located in an entirely different county or state and these adjusted figures represent a better source of data for the county then the actual National Weather Service data for that county? In looking at the above chart in the 1940's West Chester had far fewer 95 degree days....I know this is just 95 degree days but why in the 1940's would NCEI chill West Chester from an actual average annual temperature of 53.4 degrees to the adjusted altered figure of 50.2 degrees (3 degrees of chilling) which at least regarding 95 degree days is by far the least of all sites you list - but then Coatesville with 2x the 95 degree days only gets adjusted by only 2 degrees of chilling from 52.7 to 50.7.. So NCEI takes West Chester lower than Coatesville with these adjustments! As we have continually seen the problem remains consistent chilling adjustments with conflicting actual data to support these consistent one way chilling changes.

The last 8 week analysis of the temperature at KRDG indicates per the below a possible radiation shield problem for why they are reading so high.

Enjoy today's nice weather with sun and not too humid. Because, much of the upcoming work week looks unsettled weather wise with at least a chance of some showers and thunderstorms almost every day through Thursday. We are near normal for rainfall so far this month and still have a surplus of over 3" for the year to date. Chester County daily records for today: High 106 degrees at Phoenixville (1930)/ Low 48 degrees at Phoenixville (1965) / Rain 3.60" at West Chester (1919)

Enjoy today's nice weather with sun and not too humid. Because, much of the upcoming work week looks unsettled weather wise with at least a chance of some showers and thunderstorms almost every day through Thursday. Chester County daily records for today: High 106 degrees at Phoenixville (1930)/ Low 48 degrees at Phoenixville (1965) / Rain 3.60" at West Chester (1919)

So if there was a "reverse heat island effect" why did NCEI chill Coatesville even more with adjustments? Why did they continue to chill the Doe Run baseline site?? Below are the actual and NCEI altered average temps for each station during the period of record. NCEI chilled Coatesville obs each and every year from 1894 thru 1971. The biggest adjustment by station location was in the 1903-16 timeframe....Charlie mentioned above that no other places in the county had as many 95 plus days during this time. Well actually in the 1910's Sadsburyville had 55 such days - Coatesville 52 days - Phoenixville 46 days. Important to note there was no time of observation bias evidenced at the Coatesville station. Only during the 1910-1921 timeframe were single evening observations recorded at 9pm (1910-1915) and 8pm (1916-1921). Readings were taken three times a day from 1894 thru 1909 at 7am/2pm/9pm. From 1922 to 1945 readings were taken at 8am and 8pm. From 1946 to 1982 readings were observed at 8am

Do you think there is a problem with the KRDG Thermometer? Further north in Berks County - higher elevation yet now consistently warmer than the lowest and warmest somewhat urban location in Chester County - Phoenixville. At this rate KRDG might approach KPHL levels soon.

Hi zenmsav - not rude at all. I suspect you are correct with the self debate LOL! Hopefully folks not interested just ignore this....which most but not are seem to be doing! I do not have average windspeed and humidity for all stations....but I may add those in to my dataset for those that have that data.. Thanks!

Yesterday was on average our warmest day of the year and we were around 6 degrees cooler than normal for July 19th. Today looks to be our 3rd consecutive below normal temp day across most of Chesco. More clouds than sun today but sunny and hotter tomorrow with temps back in the upper 80's. By Tuesday we start to see some pretty unsettled weather with off and on storm chances through the remainder of the upcoming work week. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 48 degrees at Coatesville (1965) / Rain 3.83" at Coatesville (1981)

Yesterday was on average our warmest day of the year and we were around 6 degrees cooler than normal for July 19th. Today looks to be our 3rd consecutive below normal temp day across most of Chesco. More clouds than sun today but sunny and hotter tomorrow with temps back in the upper 80's. By Tuesday we start to see some pretty unsettled weather with off and on storm chances through the remainder of the upcoming work week. Chester County records for today: High 104 degrees at Phoenixville (1930) / Low 48 degrees at Coatesville (1965) / Rain 3.83" at Coatesville (1981)