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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Great weather continues both today and tomorrow before we turn increasingly chilly and wet for much of the rest of the week. We will be only a few degrees below normal today with highs near 70 degrees....but by Wednesday and Thursday I suspect some of the higher ridge locales across the area may not escape the very chilly 40's to near 50 degrees. This is more than 20 degrees below normal for late May. A nice soaking rain will arrive by Wednesday morning and last into the weekend. The heaviest rain should be Wednesday into Thursday. Model output shows between 1.5" to as much as 3 inches of rain for some spots as any drought concerns have been erased over the last 2 months. -
Today through Tuesday look like great weather. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal today with highs not too far from 70 degrees. We fall below normal with temperatures in the 60's on Tuesday and continue to fall into the unseasonably chilly low to mid 50's for high temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday. These readings will be at least 20 degrees below normal for late May! Rain chances will also increase by Wednesday morning with some spots picking up an inch of rain by Thursday night. We dry out a bit toward Memorial Day weekend but will remain chilly with temperatures likely to still be 10 degrees or so below normal.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Today through Tuesday look like great weather. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees below normal today with highs not too far from 70 degrees. We fall below normal with temperatures in the 60's on Tuesday and continue to fall into the unseasonably chilly low to mid 50's for high temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday. These readings will be at least 20 degrees below normal for late May! Rain chances will also increase by Wednesday morning with some spots picking up an inch of rain by Thursday night. We dry out a bit toward Memorial Day weekend but will remain chilly with temperatures likely to still be 10 degrees or so below normal. -
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are approaching from the west this morning and should cross the area over the next few hours. We should see a break in the showers this afternoon before more shower chances tonight and tomorrow morning. We finally dry out by later tomorrow and should see great weather on Sunday and Monday.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are approaching from the west this morning and should cross the area over the next few hours. We should see a break in the showers this afternoon before more shower chances tonight and tomorrow morning. We finally dry out by later tomorrow and should see great weather on Sunday and Monday. -
Below is the average of all other stations and of course both the alterned NCEI averages and the Phoenixville/Spring City combo are higher than the all other station averages every year with the exception of 2023. In fact in 2024 the Phoenxiville/Spring City combo was higher than every other reporting stations average temperature.
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And you will be the last to understand while we are in a minor current warming cycle....it is nothing to be concerned about in the least!
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
We are now over 2 inches of rain across portions of Chester County including here in East Nantmeal. For the year we are up to 95% of normal rainfall. Almost 5 inches of rain has already fallen in East Nantmeal here in May. -
I think you would agree those 2 stations are the lowest and relatively warmest spots in the County. Plus only a few miles away from each other in the Northeast part of the County. For sure not representative of the county. Below are the actuals vs NCEI for the last 5 years.
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Truth! it is really a climate cult....actual factual data is rejected or of course "altered" to fit the narrative!!
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Rain will continue today and increase in coverage and intensity by later in the day. Most areas will see a good soaking with over an inch of rain forecast for many. This wet pattern looks to continue for the rest of the work week before we finally look to dry out by the weekend. If some of the more aggressive models verify we could see many spots move to above normal rainfall so far this year. Great news for the area farmers!
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Rain will continue today and increase in coverage and intensity by later in the day. Most areas will see a good soaking with over an inch of rain forecast for many. This wet pattern looks to continue for the rest of the work week before we finally look to dry out by the weekend. If some of the more aggressive models verify we could see many spots move to above normal rainfall so far this year. Great news for the area farmers! -
And Coatesville and West Chester moved several times over short distances....so let's just chill each and every single year for 70 plus years to a level that not one of the stations you know actually recorded?? And why do we continue to now warm our summers almost each and every year from the actual new stations that you feel "do a good job of covering the county"?? Look at how those adjustments paint a much different picture than the actual real observations...NCEI has now warmed this decade by already 0.6 degrees on a pace to do so by more than a degree by the end of the 2020's!
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Bringing our guy Charlie's Cyclical Climate Denial stuff back over to this thread, As we have highlighted to Charlie indeed 11 of the 17 current stations in the data set are in the warmer southern Chester County area below 40 degrees lattitude. Yet unsurprisingly our Charlie struggles to admit his Cyclical Climate Change Denialism fails against the real world raw data he hates to see we continue to put forth facts vs fiction!!
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As always Charlie you try to explain away factual data vs. recast adjusted data which is just never a good look....that said let's take your revisionist Cyclical Climate Denialism back over to the Chesco thread to better expose this alternate facts view you traffic in!! LOL!!
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11 of the 17 current stations in the data set are in the warmer southern Chester County area below 40 degrees
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And how many stations are in the NW part of the county today vs. the South????
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Fake and false Charlie there are actually only 6 stations currently north of 40.0 N and 14 stations in the warmer south and eastern sections!!
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Every single July year since 1994 here in Chester County has been warmed with the NCEI alterations
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Just in from NOAA no global warming/climate change in the USA Since 2012!!
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ClimateChanger not looking hard enough! Let's take a peek at July since you bring that month up!! Welp = even more egregious altered data in July. NCEI chilled a whopping 74 of the 76 years between 1895 and 1970....and of course have now turned around and warmed 46 of the last 54 years from 1971 thru 2024. And my oh my what a difference these little alterations make to the climate story of Chester County PA!! Red is the altered....look at that warming - but where the heck did it go without those wee little adjustments??? We are actually cooling in July!!!
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Below shows the clear impact of the introduced altered NCEI adjustments to the below May actual average temperatures for Chester County PA. To put a fine point on the below analysis. Incredibly NCEI chose to chill 73 of the first 76 years or 96% of all May months in the years from 1895 through 1970! They have now over the last 54 years 1971 through 2024 chosen to warm the data in 40 of those 54 years or 74% of these years. This is a textbook example of how altering the data helps give the desired answer to assist the many Cyclical Climate Deniers. That blue actual average temperature line is actually cooling while the red altered data is clearly warming.....
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Nope only data from NWS coops and NWS mesonet....just the raw facts as always!
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35 (70% of) U.S. states recorded their “all-time” high May temperature records before color TV in 1960! Of that subset, 21 of them were set over a century ago. In 1934, 10 states set their “all-time” May monthly high temperature records. In 1895 and 1911, seven and six states, respectively, set theirs.
