ChescoWx

He did a great job with nailing this storm way in advance and I do like his admitting his bias (which we all know of holding on too long). Like him or not he is good with overall patterns....IMHO October 31 06:51 PM It is likely you will not live through a period like this again. No, not the individual storms, but the amount of variables being thrown at you at once, exposing the helplessness of longer range models. Man, being a smart creature will adjust and next time we see a major climatic shift, the model should be ready. That being said, once they caught on to this system now, they have done good. Some of the old biases did not occur, and my bias of hanging on too long did, so its machine over man when it comes to the end game here. Since no one was looking a week ago, the fact that this was picked out then likely does not matter to most. Going forward, I think since Feb 2013 there has been a major model bias to warm overall in the longer range. Many lah de dah, its going to be warm long range forecasts have been blown out of the water. Its that simple. Occasionally Sept 2013, and Oct 2014 have shown up, but by and large. 10-15 days the major models that the markets have been glued too have been too warm in the month ahead and the season ahead. But if this winter turns out to be even nastier than we have, it wasnt that there were not hints Look at this snowcover.. close to the all time record for the last day of October

@BigJoeBastardi: Very warm water off east coast supplies the energy for what could be a severe noreaster tracking from near Va Capes to Cape Cod on weekend Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

JB has the upper low going from Toledo to Elkins to Richmond VA with snow from the mountain of NC up to Maine with snow possibly getting as far south and near the coast as North Jersey

From Larry Cosgrove at Weatheramerica - another potential nor'easter for Halloween with maybe some high ground snows... "Despite the tendency to have mild weather over much of the U.S. in the short range forecast, the presence of a modest blocking signal over Alaska will have downstream impacts by next weekend. Shortwave energy in central Canada will dig into Appalachia, possibly forming a closed (and cold) 500MB low by November 1. While the operational GFS and GGEM schemes have tended to view this feature as a progressive cold intrusion (bordering on cA character), the ECMWF panels have advertised the formation of a significant surface storm near Cape Hatteras. Note the Rex signature over Quebec and Labrador after Saturday. If this minor block is for real (and I think that is indeed the case), we may see another Nor'easter with two or three days of wind and rain from Virginia northward to Nova Scotia in the November 1 - 4 time frame. And yes, higher elevations on the western edge of the precipitation shield (do you hear me Interstate 79 and 81 corridors....) could see the first accumulating snow of the season."

JB already advertising non-winters to come over the next few years (must be fighting his cold bias)......but....far from that is what he and the team at Weather Bell are seeing for this year. Top Analogs at this point are: 1) 2009-10 2/ 1976-77 3) 2002-3

great forecast map! Thanks!