ChescoWx

This morning JB laying out the GFS being an outlier on day 15 - when both the Euro and Canadian have a deep trof over the east and very cold while the GFS is well....not. JB sees after the first rain event this weekend a 2nd storm will follow and come right up the coast to the mid-atlantic with snow and very cold to follow. Also, is betting someone will hype what is coming as the "Polar Vortex"

To paraphrase a very interesting JB video from this morning on WeatherBell. He sees - January is looking rougher by the minute and while the GFS is in it's usual la la land - the WeatherBell team is alerting their clients that while January will certainly be cold - in fact he said it will reach levels approaching 2014 with single digits into the big cities and then February will be quite the cold and stormy month. JB also said to expect a lot of folks to start talking about the moderating that will take place after the upcoming cold - but to not be fooled by the folks who will believe the CFS. Of course he pulled out his famed Brazil Meteogram for Chicago and Atlanta remains very confident that the WeatherBell Seasonal snow numbers will be working out real well with well above normal snowfall from the southeast up into and including the Philadelphia Metro area by the time the last flake is counted.

From the Joe B at Weatherbell this AM "The idea of a major storm on the east coast in the 8-10 is still very much alive and kicking. The height falls to the south later this week bring a relatively warm storm up on the back side of the arctic air the front part of the week, but a second storm comes out of the gulf this weekend and this has been a target for a week now from me. It will also be my 3rd attempt at snow in the coastal plain this winter from 2 weeks out and so far 0 for 2. I am keeping score. Behind it the whole jet dives in. Can we make a rule. If you said Jan would be warm, no matter how cold it gets, you cant call what will come through the Polar Vortex? Wait till the Meteo media wakes up to what is going on."

Either way I am good with the majority opinions....plenty of good posters are in NYC.....unless a met fan.....just joking Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk

Ralph - if you want snow in this area - the suppressed track is what you want. The American models will always show those as going south and then the correction occurs as we get closer. Better to have the cold and work out the track then need the cold IMHO. Happy New Year Paul

Hi Ralph, Not sure it will be as severe as LC paints - although I do respect his opinion.....but a much colder than December than January (how's that for an easy call?) seems in the cards. Paul

Dr. Joe D with Wxbell says the models are catching on to the coming pattern change which should get underway around the New Year

JB update from this AM.....sees a cold start to December and then a warmer month but sees a SW to NE snow event during that timeframe. Then a warmer (he says it will have to be after the cold start) to get to the WB forecast. He calls up a 1986-87 winter analog that matches the heart of winter as he sees it. There really seems to be strong agreement among most vendors with how they see the winter playing out. Now will any of them be right......

Was away all day today....but it looks like the Weather Bell folks changed their forecast (officially) at 5am this morning.....now the latest tweet from JB "For a hurricane that's not likely to pass within 400 miles of the US this weekend there is certainly a heck of a lot of hype out there"......things that make you go hmmm!!

from JB this evening on Joaquin, He said he finds himself allied with modeling that he has always thought inferior.. To quote him "So why not change. Well for one the way hurricanes hit the US, and this is why I have been so adamant about saying this season is over, is, in essence, the way the pattern is. Digging trough catches storm with major positive anomalies over northeast Canada into the Altantic. In fact, if ALL MODELING WERE OUT TO SEA, AND THE EURO WERE WEST, I would most certainly be on the side of the Euro. The other thing is the ECWMF sometimes has problems near the east coast. It seems to make sure the digging trough and the hurricane stay separate. At 48 hours it looks like its going to get caught"

JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

Paraphrasing from JB's article today - sees models "catching up" with future runs to come to his ideas below He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air? In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk. So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track. And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled

JB on the twin arctic avengers "Twin Arctic Avengers that can have blizzard conditions with them ( though snows won't be as great as the Jan 26-28 blizzard) will impact the east the next 7 days. The first will have its epicenter where the blizzard did, but also have some snow further back west and push the south part of the eastern snowbank south a bit, into the northern mid atlantic The Second is likely to have its epicenter on the south end of the snowpack.. which means it may leave snow on the ground all the way to the Va-NC border As these travel southeast through the northern plains and midwest, it will become clearer that the scramble period of mild is gone and the backing of the cold is underway. Next week, will lead to enhanced snow further south and west, well into the plains and at this time, as far south as the I-40 corridor. The core of cold will expand back west. The winter so far has had its share of triumph and tragedy. I feel very confident of 2 things. 1) the snow forecast which is first to last flake.. will by and large workout, and by that I mean, if we have above normal it will be above normal.. I can't say it in every single backyard spot, but I love what I see as far as the pattern goes 2) We had an area of -5 for this winter over the still warmer than normal midwest ( Dec-Jan) For the specific winter season, Dec-Feb, I think we will get that, but over New England, again a maddening WESTWARD bias of my cold ( Last year because it was over the plains more, and everyone was cold it did not matter. but the core was supposed to be east. Its maddening because my bias for much of my career was too cold too far east! But another thing to point out, and this is probably in the excuse category. If I took the blend of 90 days for Nov-Jan, Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar and put together a 5 month forecast out of that for Nov-Mar, given what has happened and what I think is going to happen, it would have been a great 5 month forecast. I am confident the plains and even the southeast down to I 20, will share in the winter woe, though its obvious the worse is in the northeast."

From JB today " I still think the ECWMF will outdo the GFS with this storm, though the GFS is now seeing accumulating snow to the Mason Dixon line ( actually an isolated area. But amounts have increased around NYC for instance and given its performance in the two events, the one the 23rd and 24th and most recently, last Monday, the area east of what is now I-99 and as far south as ACY to DC is still the same to me with snow. As for most of New England, its like shooting fish in a barrel with snow now, though the barrel is frozen and you cant find it anyway cause its covered with snow"

JB not surprisingly has not been buying the further north solutions and put out a snow map yesterday that had accumulating snow down to Philly....not sure what he was thinking but....he is not backing down and of course he likes the trends. He also commented Philly and DC will get their snow in Feb/March - he says the snow season is just beginning there. "I think this storm now is more than likely to trend further south on each run rather than north.. it is what I am counting on. The NAM has suddenly shifted south, though admittedly neither run is not to where I think they have to get ( 50-100 miles south of the current forecasts) But we should wind up with a storm on the Va Capes Sunday night and the upper max far enough south so what usually happens in February when that happens, happens. As it is it appears for the NE the relentless pounding is just going to get worst, with severe cold now coming in stronger waves and the threats of snow" "As confident as I was with the target period Jan 26-Feb 10 back on the 15th. While some of you have not shared in the total woe ( is as if it wont spread around the wealth as far as snow) there will be a new regime on the helm here that will make sure the proper redistribution of miserable weather occurs, even while taxing the wealthiest of the winter cold and snow even more"

Steve D at NYNJPA weather updated as follows For South and East of I95 a trace-2" of snow quickly to rain For the I95 corridor including Philadelphia 1-3" snow and 0.1 to 0.3" of ice For Lancaster to East Nantmeal Townhip to Doylestown to TTN to NYC he has 3" to 6" of snow and 0.1" to 0.3" of ice with Snow to Ice and back to snow For Harrisburg to RDG to Qtown to Just near ABE to NYC he has 5" to 10" of snow with 0.1 to 0.25 of ice All Snow to the NW of that with 6" to 12" +

Latest from Larry Cosgrove this evening "Despite the various computer models either ignoring or downplaying its existence, a huge storm and frontal structure over the High Plains is set to make a mark on sensible weather across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The equations appear to still be mishandling this broad feature, and may in fact be too far north with the track of the surface low and its upper components. I say this because there is a wide area of Arctic air across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and the natural tendency for disturbances is to find the path of least resistance. So if you are asking me to agree with the idea that the low pressure at surface will move headlong into a cAk dome covering Quebec and New England, my answer would be no. What I think is going to happen is that the storm will track from SE MO to S OH, then start to re-organize in a center jump fashion into N VA on early Monday morning. I liked the 12z NAM version of events, which would take the low pressure system off of Cape May NJ, deepen the center to about 988MB crossing the 40N, 70 W "Benchmark", and then speed a powerful cyclone into Halifax NS by Monday night. The 850MB freeze line will likely bulge northward above the Pennsylvania Turnpike early on Groundhog Day, but surface temperatures may be slower to respond. For this reason, sleet and freezing rain may be a problem for parts of E OH....S PA....WV....N MD....N DE....and NJ. I can even see a situation where the NYC/LI metro and immediate coastline of CT get into a frozen/liquid precipitation tussle for a few hours on Monday. Afterwards, strong north winds will usher the snow southward before ending. The heavy snow threat should run from IA....N, C IL....N IN....S Lower MI....N OH....N, C PA....N NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....S VT....C, S NH....C, E ME....NB. Most accumulations in that zone will run between 6 - 10 inches. But some communities in PA, NY and New England could have as much as 15 inches of wind blown snowfall before the low exits the scene on Tuesday. "

Nice write up from JB this evening.... January 31 06:35 PM "I dont now where Paul Stokols is now. He was (is) a giant to me, the first person to teach me about the negative EPO back in the 1970s. He was part of the gifts from the good lord that arrived at PSU, a whole slew of Meteo grad students, that took me under their wing and showed me alot of what I use today. I name rules after who taught them to me. I have no idea if these rules are named after anyone else. I was taught to always credit the person that taught me and I do. A word about Paul. He became part of the mid range forecast center back in the 1980s, that included Joe Shipps and Dave Weinstein. He then went to the Fire Center and became the Chief. But the rule in DC was a 55 heights THK 540 and heights falling when snow started, it stayed snow. The reason is fairly intuitive. If the heights are still rising it is a sign that the ridge is still building and the war advection that is causing the snow in the first place is going to win. If they fall, then the rate of cooling aloft is enough to sustain the snow. Its like the BGM rule and Central Park On a northwest wind the temp in the park is 13 higher than BGM is 5 hours later. As with all rules there are exception. Now Paul like me was a snow geek. So I am sure the rules developed for DC dont have to apply else where. But chances are if it starts snowing and the height fall, it will stay snow So lets "play: with my back yard State college. It starts snowing around noon tomorrow, and the heights hold steady then fall. Should stay almost all snow. If it sleets or freezing rains for a while, it will be because we had a heck of alot of precip The there is my dads rule, though he may have heard it from Norm Macdonald on WBZ I remember as a kid lamenting the hours when it was cold in ACY and it was not snowing but it was snowing west of us. It would come in as a few flakes but have warmed up so it rained. " It snows where it wants to snow" I heard that first in 1966 when the week before the blizzard of 66, we had a snowstorm forecasted and it rained. My great friend Bernie Rayno tweeted today that he heard that from the great Norm MacDonald of WBZ weather fame when he worked at the place I used to work at. If so, then perhaps that rule from Dad was something he saw on WBZ, I know I used to say it around work all the time, but if Norm said it first ten its his rule. How does it apply here? Watch the snow tomorrow. Where that streak goes, is going to have a heck of a storm and chances are the changeover line wont move north more than 100 miles So why am I so different. Well think about this. What does the model have the best chance of hitting? What is right in front of it, right? Well it is headed toward a warm air festival, the downsloping west of the Appalachians. So it should pull up into SE Ohio and to SW pa. But its ONLY after it actually sees what is or isnt waiting for it in an east of the mountains, that it is likely to figure out where to go after. This is still 24 hours away, IMO in really having a handle on it. Am I right, well we will have to see. I have my oltdimers rule, and they dont involve slitting my throat over a NAM or GFS run. That being said I fully understand I may be wrong. What I am not wrong about though is the pattern producing this. Enjoy it It is highly unlikely after this winter, in your lifetime you will see a SNOW DEPTH forecast like this, close to 40" ne of Pit and Se Mass. So I am not going to get all bent out of shape and grieve over backyard debacles including my own back yard. If I miss by 50 miles but explained the why before the what a week before, I just cant get upset about it anymore. Yell at the local forecasters that 5 days before had a chance of snow showers in the forecast. But here is what I can say. This target period, the 10 day Feb 1-5, the other 10 day call for the storm we went through in the east, the period Jan 26-Feb 10 which was made around Jan 15 to counter the wave of despair, just like we saw in mid Jan 2010, that winter was over ( Again the SOI crashed and look what the cattle prod did) were all part of a bigger message. WINTER HAS JUST BEGUN TO FIGHT"

I like him he is generally more conservative compared to JB but not as conservative as LC

Steve D updated at 145pm with some slight revisions to what he now calls his Final forecast - although he knows there is some room for error if he is wrong with a track thru SJ Zone from Glasgow E - PHL - West Deptford NJ to Mt Holly (1" to 3" of snow to rain and back to snow with .10 to .25 of ice) Zone from Southern Lancaster County to Coatesville to Willow Grove to Trenton (3" to 6" of snow to ZR and back to snow with 0.10 to 0.30 of ice) Zone from LNS to East Nantmeal Twp to Doylestown (6" to 12" of snow and snow mixed with sleet back to all snow before ending ice a trace to .05") Zone from Harrisburg to Reading to ABE (6" to 12"+ with potential for more with banding)

Steve D with NJPA Weather also believes this will tick south by tomorrow's 12z runs...he has 4"-8" of snow to a mix in Philly 8"-12" Just NW of Philly out to a LNS/Lionville/Conshy/TTB line NW of that line he has an 8" to 12" + forecast with less mixing

More from JB on why the EURO is right "Forgot this: A positively tilted trough has the deepening for the surface low rely more on warm advection( run to where the warmth is) The old rule is negative tilt, deepen from top down until the surface can get going and feed back. Neutral tilt about 50/50, positive the deepening is more from warn advection and as the system deepens the upper feature gets pulled tighter toward it. Dr John Cahir, used to call these positvely tilted front runners with most of the precip in front of them. In any case the new nam does not have the look of a storm that bowls through the mountains, but extends east It is highly unlikely the reform will be this far north. The reason: The isobars in front of the storm at 42 hours, seen here are pointed AWAY from the low center, rather than toward it. So the warm air is having an easy time heading northeast, but not north. The all is for this to redevelop near the mouth of the Delaware, not off Toms River. Once again though its a 50 mile edge forecast for the biggest market in the nation. Given the parallels I see to the position of the storm and the 500 mb forecast, which is very similar to 1967 once to NYC, ( that was a positively tilted trough that went ti neutral, and again I realize the storms evolved different, but the marriage of the analog is like a guy and a girl that came from different towns but wound up together.. arent I romantic?) I will hold with the 6-10 locally 15 ( forecast within 25 miles of CP) I can see the 2 or 3 and rain, certainly, but I can see the 15 too. In any case I did not mention this earlier. That waa term is just as important as upper divergence and once that southwest wind is howling out over the water east of the MA coast it will try to draw the redevelopment toward it, and it will very hard with the low having to reform with all the other factors going on, for it to bowl through the mountains and have the needed south to southeast wind in the warm sector to push that front north"

JB post this AM on why the GFS will correct back south by tomorrow AM "When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why? "The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm) The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too"

Some words of comfort for those feeling a bit forlorn because of the weather from none other than Ray's favorite MET.....JB (I know Ray...tongue firmly in cheek(TIC) as he is NOT your favorite) - hold on to your hats....but he see's big things coming...very unlike JB to hype something (I know again TIC) "Okay the western edge of this did not pan out. The accumulation in the 5 boroughs looking at the reports should have been 6-12 inches. The storm I used as closest, Feb 1978, haD 15-20 inches in NYC and south down the Jersey shore, a foot back to PHL. But its time for those so ruthlessly stomped on by this injustice to stop your sobbing Its tough to listen to the woe is me stuff out of NY area snow geese. Any of you get one of those 15 day app from the media hype companies. Just how much snow was on it for NYC and what did temperatures look like 10 days ago for the 5 days ending now. I am sure they did not have the 10-15 inches of snow that has fallen around NYC. I got called by a major snow client of mine Saturday and he said he was watching forecasts and there was very little indication of this, and that was after the Friday night debacle the other way around New York So lets get our heads up and get ready, because this display will rival the 78 winter So in the last 10 days, we had an ice event that stopped everyone , a clipper an storm underforecasted and a storm that in most winters ( around NYC) is a pretty stout event, all this in the so called Jan Thaw period, and we are feeling down?""