ChescoWx

From JB at WB "The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing. But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8"

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has trended significantly colder now has rain this PM transitioning to sleet by 630pm. A mix of sleet and some snow heavy at times overnight with 1.4" of sleet/snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am tomorrow morning. Temps will fall slowly through the day but will remain above freezing till near 4am Tuesday morning.

It does forecast wind speed but it knows where I am between hills north and south to not expect much from a wind perspective...only shows gusts to 30mph...

Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has just drizzle and light rain through rush hour tomorrow with only .03" steadier rains move in around noon tomorrow and goes till near noon on Tuesday. Total rain 1.52" with temps remaining in the 30's on Tuesday. Chance of a little wintry precip (flurries) by Friday night....with temps not too far above freezing next weekend

For your reading enjoyment From JB at WB this AM "The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along. The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its way the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advection cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you don't simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And what's more you cant go back and claim a forecast was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I don't care if you have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way"

Sheesh! Let's get this back where it belongs.....on weather JB from WB with his thoughts on the pattern change coming.... "But that is how these storms can be , the first one mainly north of US 6 and east of te Hudson river Wednesday but that one in the 7/8 period, the one I think is going out under the block , that is the next one . Now the big thing is that may be so strong is it pulls the other one in. In any case back over a week ago when we were sounding alarms about how warm this thaw may or may not be, and of course I may just be being stubborn, I mentioned how it could end with some wild storm changing to snow in the northeast. Not as likely in the midwest, ( outside of flurries) as the colder air has to come in from the northeast first But as soon as that positive gets to and west of Hudson bay, look out. Game on"

Agreed....this is not a good comment on a weather site.....the majority of the counties (incredibly 84% of all counties in our country voted for Trump - that is a mandate!) in the United States voted for the "moron" you mentioned who will be our President later this week. You can personally dislike the man...but please respect the office!

All I can say is we have by far the best NWFO in the country! I do not say that lightly...the reputation of Mt. Holly is top notch!! I love to hear other opinions like JB / DT / WB / LC etc. - however when push comes to shove my only go to spot for the best forecast is unquestionably my NWS point and click!! Keep up the great work NWSFO Mount Holly!!

JB goin "boom" with his late Jan and Feb thoughts this evening.... "So what is the big deal with it getting warm for mid month? The fact is this reminds me alot of the 67-68 thaws, where we were in 1993 and 2013 and the thaws of of 14-15. At the end of those winters, no one was talking about the thaw, but about how long and strong winter was. Remember Endless summer. Perhaps when we get to April we may think the same thing about this winter.Yes the thaw is coming but I think it gets blown up A boom boom boom boom"

Thanks Haz! could not have said it better "nearly every scientist" remains the key phrase - not a fact. When it is universally accepted like world is round....by all scientists - I will be a believer

ugh....not for this site but as a proud card carrying climate denier - I hate any comments around something that is not a fact.....world is round = fact - global warming/climate change or whatever it is called today....not so much. If it was a fact all scientist would believe...but of course they all do not so - much more time needed. By then we will all be long gone from this world!

I know JB will never get much credit from most here (he is after all....likely next to DT the most controversial & unpopular professional MET we have) ...but he never wavered (see my Ghost of '67 post) and kept pounding the 3" to 6" in this area that many did not see just a few days ago. That said....we all know his biases (too snowy too cold and of course - way too fast!) and he is just another professional voice in the crowd. But in a tip of the cap to the old days (for those that remember - kudos to JB - that still makes me laugh how often that was posted!

From JB on potential late week - indicates he was wrong on how the upcoming threat might come to pass... "This will be more phased and further north on the east coast. The trough sharpening like that argues for it and GFS bias does too. However my bias is obvious here , since I have been counting on that system to produce my I-95 snow, ( I can not claim I was right even if it does since its not doing it the phased way Friday I thought it would) I AM LOOKING FOR THE HOMERGUN PITCH. but the model looks strange to me and if we are going to get that kind of beast that far back off the west coast, this should be much stronger near the east coast Just a thought for now... I want to handle system one. Interesting, remember before last years blizzard, there was a minor system a few days before that shut down DC on a Wednesday night ( half inch or so) Wont take much of a correction on the GFS to have one a couple of days before, then the bigger one later So again, I am biased here since I EXPECT this pattern to produce the big hitter on the east coast in the coming 7 days, But I do have arguments not based on my preconceived notions with where the trough is off the west coast ( sudden slowing and sharpening) and the usual GFS problems which such things near the east coast Fun pattern though."

The latest and greatest from Mr. Bastardi at WeatherBell after viewing the 12z Euro "I am not changing my ideas on the east coast threat next week. Its interesting watching tweets and while there is certainly a chance the models are right, there is just as good a chance that the trough in the midwest is deeper and there is more wave right on the east coast Thursday morning. I understand I may be a victim of my own circumstance... the system is ejected out so fast it does not have enough space to deepen. But it looks to me like a shot of energy comes around through Wyoming at hour 108 and by 132 that is at the base of the trough with energy still piling in from the north. What is it going to take... 50 meters lower over Chicago and Higher on the mid atlnatic coast to change what is an arctic wave dumping 1-3 inches of snow in the mid atlantic and going out to having a storm on the coast and snow spread back into Pa the New England? That is chicken feed 5 days away and the most likely correction given the warm water is higher heights on the coast. I. What is interesting is how after all these years, fears, and yes tears, someone doesnt stop and think, how many day 5-6 storms that nailed me were forecasted out to sea 5 days before. In fact if you live around NYC, most storms that are nailing you day 5 wind up as rain. Sure I may be wrong, the models say I am, But a position that took me some work to come up with is not something I will abandon cause a model says so. If its flat tomorrow, so be it. If its back tomorrow, then everyone will be back going wild."

JB's latest thoughts on the Euro for January "The Euro certainly is bullish on the major west to east cold in Days 5-15 and the return of cold for later January and into February. It's the period in between I am having problems with given all that is on the table. Speaking of all that is on the table, the extreme major shot (a la 1985) is certainly there. Of the 46 days, it looks like the model literally has a bullish pattern 50-65% of the time, and we already know some big hitting cold is coming faster than it had a few weeks ago. I am very suspicious of its warming but believe the cold it has is at least that cold and likely even colder when push comes to shove"

Everyone's favorite MET For hire - JB on models this PM "So the point here is I look at that and do not see that as warm. Given other analogs to what has been going on to 1985, I look at that and say look out. The model is likely feeding back on the cold any way. The other problem is that this being an ensemble may not be right about the ridging over Greenland. The operational Euro and the Control are developing a powerful ridge over Greenland in the day 10-15 period This implies the threat of a severe eastern storm and wicked cold anyway during that time and that is something i am starting to look at. I have not been mouthing off much about snow this year cause I have not been impressed in the NE corridor yet. The control is brutal in the 10-15 and sure sees the snow"

From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th" "The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"

Per JB this AM "The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle For the I-95 show goose its still a case of triumph or tragedy. How can you triumph? Wave with pre arctic shot dumps some snow, warm advection system dumps snow and ice and the warm sector stays just offshore. Then the front pushes through with another wave but further east than models have. .You go from next to no snow to a bonanza. 200 miles west its a meltdown. Where do I stand? In the middle. I am suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 that I was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though." Steve won't like how he finishes because he does not like the pattern but according to Joe B " Its a heck of a pattern...and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on. Of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish."

Tweet from JB " cue the Lost Christmas Eve by TSO. Euro glacier building next 10 days with cold even after means more than normal snow cover"

Per Steve at NJ/PA weather tweet - "as far as Sunday night into Monday, I'm rather concerned the GFS/NAM is off on this 500mb shortwave" and a funny tweet from DT at Wxrisk "I would not use the 12z OP Friday GFS to wipe the Shxx off of my ass....so many obvious flaws in it - it's absurd"

Welcome to all - I think we will have some interesting winter weather before Christmas.....let's just all be thankful it will not be like last year!

Latest WeatherBell winter forecast progress update.... The Verdict I am not ready to change any of the long standing ideas we have based on this run of the Euro Weeklies. We are expecting large scale normal to below temperatures in January and February. So the Euro Weekly run is inconclusive, and run to run consistency is leaving plenty to be desired. Notes and asides The latest Weatherbell Pioneer analogs have 1981-82 first, 1983-84 second, 1966-67 third, 2008-09 fourth and 2000-01 fifth, with 2012-13, 1962-63 and 1995-96 in the mix. The SST analog has this for JFM: This is suggesting a winter similar to the three before the last one, where there is cold involved in January-March. The latest CFSv2 is quite cold for January. My suggestion is that you stick close to our ideas, for at the very least, they have been talking about the current cold. I look for the pattern later this month into January to be back and forth and biased a bit colder than average over the East, with warmth in the Southwest that will have to be looked at to balloon to the northeast.

From JB at WeatherBell "please reference that with my plea to cherish the challenge of this pattern.. I am not talking about snow in your back yard ( actually in this I am) I am talking about the fun in trying to sort out the physical realities of pattern where a lot of things are competing .I am very concerned that the wave on the arctic front will be the real deal to put snow down all the way to the Ohio river and the east coast Jersey north. The emperor of the north is coming and he likes his white carpet laid down before him. Notes and asides. I am hearing alot of grumbling about the warmup day 8/9 in the east ( then the cold comes again, assuming it left, or put it this way, tries to leave) Now anyone remember the Christmas outbreak in 1980? Was drizzling in NYC 3 days later. Same thing in 1983! Or how about the blizzard of 96... Son of Blizzard a week later turned to rain on the east coast ( dumped 3-4 feet in Susquehanna valley) and then came the storm the following weekend that caused the Susquehanna 96 flood, cause it wiped out the snow cover on Saturday. And 2009... the day after Christmas snow was wiped out That was the greatest gloom and doom turned great winter I ever saw, as the winters over crowd was still screaming it a week before snowmageddon started as the GFS ensembles were feeble in mid Jan. And 2013... 70s in NYC a few days before Christmas. Heck Super bowl Sunday got to 50, then 15-25 inches of snow from 2 storms with in 5 days. Now none of that means a hill of beans as far as this pattern but it does mean something about simply using your memory to say, wait a minute maybe there is more to this than meets the eye. After all if it was as it appears given whichever idea you choose to follow and there was no challenge what fun is that. You know what's interesting about at least the cold coming now? Well you guys know I love the weather, but you can also sense I love sports and I am very interested in the political process. Its like the trifecta watching a lot of this for me as far as the comfort one takes that maybe the answer is not what all the experts say. For whatever you or I wish to say, at the very least, the cold did get to our side of the pole, right? Where was that idea 10 days ago, yet alone longer"

LC is one of my all-time favorites! Really enjoyed his time on Philly TV - he is missed. That said he has had some rough longer time forecast challenges the last couple years....the only sure thing is this December will be much much colder than last year!! How is that for going out on the proverbial limb??

Nah...no towel just mentioned the oh Canada Model that if true (which he did not believe) then troubled times ahead. Of course all that said....this year is far from a slam dunk for either cold or warm. I know you are a traditionally negative guy....and you could be right. But with no clear signals either way -the most likely outcome is a fairly normal winter. But a lot of the youngins will think a normal Philly winter of 22" of snow or a normal winter of 36" of snow out here in the NW Philly burbs is somehow a disappointing winter....they don't understand climatology.