ChescoWx

Steve agreed 100% will be a battle to scour out the LL warm air and will likely take till toward evening to get above freezing

Words of wisdom Steve....wish we had more folks on here but I truly appreciate all the peeps that do choose to post here - thanks!!

I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. I remain confident we end up with an above average snow month and January remains on path for some very interesting times IMHO. Folks sometimes forget even out here in the NW burbs - we only average 4.7" of snow in December - we have already had 1.5" of snow this month and I expect we will add to the snow total on Monday before the change to rain (I suspect it will be a slow process once N and W of I95) - watch for another winter event around Christmas and toward the New Year. Interesting times ahead....

I like him but he blocked me on twitter because he does not believe KMQS is a valid weather site....does not like folks to disagree with him

JB still on the snow and ice train north of the m/d line - as depicted on the 6z Euro means run

The well respected MET - JB from WB is on board the snow and ice train for north of the mason dixon line with the next event (16th-18th) since last Saturday. He is still not getting into accumulation but sees a Miller B storm running to the lakes with a secondary popping off the coast....and then some strong to near record cold to follow by the pre-Christmas weekend.

East Nantmeal Twp. in NW Chester County as of 6:45 am Temp 31.9 still light snow Snow so far = 1.5"

Timing looks to be mostly in the overnight early AM - so I would not expect much struggle with accumulations with the exception of paved surfaces. Which of course don't matter when it comes to snow accumulations

I thought I would share an excerpt of my winter forecast that is being published this week in the East Nantmeal Sweetwater Reporter. Unlike some winter outlooks that are chance outlooks - I have tried to put actual numbers into the forecast (keep in mind this is specifically for East Nantmeal Township in NW Chester County PA)...which will likely show exactly how far I am off when we validate as we go along. So, what does this portend for the upcoming winter season? Below is my forecast for 2019/2020 for East Nantmeal Township. with average temperature and snowfall estimates by month. To summarize regarding temperatures. I see a slightly above normal December with a bit of a roller coaster. Cold to start warm up mid-month and turning cold by Christmas week. We generally have a 25% chance of a White Christmas with our last being in 2012. I do believe we have a chance of a White Christmas this year. I expect a below normal and snowy January followed by a near normal but snowy February, a below normal March and an above normal April. Regarding snowfall I am forecasting around 51” of snowfall this winter season or about 14” above our seasonal average of 36.7”. Unlike the past few years I do think we see at least one or two major snowstorms with greater than 10” accumulations. December 2019 – Avg. Temperature 35.1 degrees (+1.5) above normal with Snowfall of 7.5” which is 2.8” above normal January 2020 – Avg. Temperature 27.7 degrees (-2.2) below normal with Snowfall of 19” or +8.1” above normal February 2020 – Avg. Temperature 32.9 degrees (+0.5) above normal with Snowfall of 17” or +4.8” above normal March 2020 – Avg. Temperature 38.9 (-1.4) below normal with Snowfall of 7” or +0.7” above normal April 2020 – Avg. Temperature 53.9 (+2.6) above normal with Snowfall of 0.5” or 0.6” below normal

AM low 31.5 Normal today 43.1/29.1

Not yet in my NWS forecast but keep an eye on tomorrow AM...expect squalls to make it at least into Western Chester County and maybe all the way to the coast. May get more tomorrow (easy to do with just a coating from yesterday) than our 1st little winter event...something to watch for...

A light coating of snow overnight following the light coating yesterday morning...otherwise nada here in Chesco....might see more than a coating with some squalls making it this far SE tomorrow AM...

It has snowed very lightly much of the day with little on the radar. A couple hundred feet lower at my son's school it was just drizzle. That said with some of those pivot bands making it back in this direction the snow has picked up as you can see below - might get another coating like this AM...

Continues to snow lightly here in NW Chesco as it has most of the day - current temp at our high for the day at 36.1

My updated forecast below - of course high variability further SW you go - pretty confident to the northeast

Very light snow here in NW Chesco temp at 32.8 - impactful snow should stay well Northeast of this area

For sure - further North and East will see the most...

It never had much snow in the forecast till the 6z run overnight... Today: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, rain, and snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet, rain, and snow likely in the afternoon. High 36, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind east around 5 mph in the morning, becoming 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A mix of rain and sleet likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 30. Wind east around 7 mph in the evening, becoming 4 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog. A mix of snow and rain likely. High 34. Wind north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 27. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 25. Wind north-northwest around 8 mph in the evening, becoming 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch.

Attached is my forecast....apologies for the sloppy graphics..I am dragging my 1" line down to 76 - my snow forecast includes the IP which I think will be more than current thinking....plus I bet the Norlun will be backing more SW than modeled

This one really reminds me of Christmas 2002....except elevation will not be as big a factor as back then. However, firmly believe anyplace north of M/D line could see accumulating < 2" but likely not plowable snow by Monday night. Expect that WAA event on Sunday will be less than some folks think but as wrap around develops really think current NWS WSW area especially east of Northeast extension of Turnpike and NE bound will do well with the snow.

Watch where upper low moves....right now just south of m/d line....north of there will see some accumulation (1" to 3") - not all snow and not a blockbuster but for this early in the season....any snow would be a bonus

Nice temp inversion around Western Chester County this morning with Low spots well below freezing including Marsh Creek down below 400 feet at 28.0 and PTW at 30.9 - while here in East Nantmeal at 685 ft we bask at 38.4. Would be interesting to find out how many less freezing days we have here up the mountain incline

1.41" of precipitation over last 3 days. Wet snow this AM did not accumulate (just a light coating) as the heaviest bands were west of East Nantmeal.

Not quite seeing what you are.... I like a normal December temp wise....after a cold 1st 10 days of the month with an overall above average snow month....before a snowy January. Best month to "waste" cold is November