ChescoWx

Hi Steve very excited for Phigthins this year!! I do wish they signed another pitcher....but some strong adds in Wheeler and Gregorius at SS solid! Incredibly the Phillies are the #5 pick in vegas to win the World Series. Not quite sure I am there but I do think they have their 1st winning season since 2011....lineup is strong but of course it comes down to the pitching. Will they make one more deal before the season - will some of the young pitchers step up?? Either way it is always great to have our National Pastime coming back - for me it is the greatest sport!! Go Phillies!! Record 85-77

WXSIM with 6z data for NW Chester County PA has rain tomorrow transitioning to ZR overnite into Thursday with some light icing - up to 3" of rain this week plus for now showing snow heavy at times overnight Saturday into Sunday late morning with 3" to 5" of snow....no fear it will be gone by 12z

Even on a "relative" basis....me thinks highly unlikely!! LOL!!

Moderate snow in East Nantmeal

Light Snow here in East Nantmeal in NW Chester County PA with a temp at 38.8 DP 30.2

Here in Chester County PA we finished January as the 10th warmest 1st month of a year at 36.5 degrees the top 10 including this year are: 1932 - 42.4 / 1913 - 39.5 / 1950 - 39.5 / 1998 - 38.7 / 1933 - 38.5 / 2006 - 38.4 / 1937 - 38.2 / 1990 - 37.3 / 1906 - 37.1 We also finished with the 44th least January snow at just 3.8". Of note this is also the 29th least snowy season to date with only 5.8" of snow so far. The 28 previous times with this little snow to date - only 4x did we finish w/above normal snowfall (36") for the season. The average ending snow totals for those 28 seasons is only 19.9" of snow. The biggest turn around season was 1913-14 when we only had 3.3" of snow through January but ended up with 54.1" - the worst winter non-turnaround of course is the only season without any recorded snowfall the infamous winter of 1972-3 with no snow accumulation at all.

I suspect we are not done with a closer to the coast solution over the next 48hrs plus no doubt we will be NAMmmed!

Agreed Steve....I think it could be a white rain depending on intensity with some accumulation as you go up and over 600ft asl....but as you know this will all change by next run - plus we will likely be Nammed by Friday!

Agreed with both of you!!

Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 6z data has snow arriving by 1am Saturday morning with temps at 34.9 Heavy Snow from 330a till 730am with 3" of snow by moderate snow by 10am tapering off to light rain and snow by 11am ending by 1pm with total snow accumulation around 4" - models are all over the place expect them to come into better focus starting tomorrow evening - Thursday at 0z.

One thing we have in common with that winter was very little snow in January. Folks forget but we only saw 2.6" of snow in January 2010 in Chester County (we have had 3.8" so far this January. However, in 2010 we quickly made up for that with our 2nd snowiest February on record with 62.8" falling including 3 storms with over 1 foot of snow. 2/5-2/6 - 18.3" 2/9-2/10 - 26.8" 2/25-2/26 - 13.5" Our snowiest February in 1899 included the single biggest individual snowstorm in Chester County history when 45.3" fell between the 12th and 14th. 1898-99 was our snowiest winter with 95.0" falling - 2009/10 ranked 2nd with a total seasonal snow of 86.6"

12z data - WXSIM for the weekend light snow and flurries around midnight on Saturday with a coating of snow.

Thanks for all the messages and emails for a WXSIM forecast for next week! Here is the early view (take with the proverbial grain of salt this far out) WXSIM sees a 1" to 3" snow event next Saturday afternoon into the evening for NW Chester County PA

In my opinion this is by far the best Snowstorm threat so far this season. Now whether it is more white than wet....who knows but a big storm signal is there - as is common with most of the major East Coast events....interesting week ahead!

It's coming Mike....but remember it is just spitting out what the GFS and NAM are selling.....it is NOT a model.....just a tool. It will swing with every model change which we know this year is major from run to run

2.25" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal Township - this is the highest daily rainfall since way back on August 13, 2018 when 4.17" fell. It is also the 1st time with 2" or greater precipitation in a day since August 31, 2018. However, we did not set a daily precip record for the day that was set on the last day of the 1909 blizzard that left the county blanketed under 29.0" of snow with 2.54" of w.e. on this day the 25th in 1909.

Since we are in a bit of a weather lull outside of a nice rainstorm. I got to thinking about great rock bands that have recorded songs about the weather or in the title. Of course I immediately go to the all-time greatest rock band in history The Beatles for what was probably the 1st great rock song that was influenced by non over the counter drug prescriptions and the weather...very appropriate for our upcoming system - Rain. See link below for a black and white version of this great track from the Fab Four from back in August of 1966.....probably my favorite Ringo Starr drum track (as an amateur drummer a very tough track to play) Post your favorite weather inspired tracks if so inclined - thanks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cK5G8fPmWeA

WXSIM with 6z data has up to 2" of rain maybe a couple ice pellets at the start at around 4am Saturday AM.....I do see a snow flurry on Tuesday around midnight....keep the faith!

Snow began in East Nantmeal Township PA at 5:45pm on the 22nd with 4" of snow accumulating by midnight. An additional 22" of snow fell on the 23rd. The 26.0" of snow made this the 8th largest storm in Chester County PA history (largest being the 45.3" blizzard ending on Feb 14, 1899) and the 15th storm to exceed the 20" mark. This was the 3rd twenty inch plus storm in the county in the 6 years between 2010-2016.

Agreed!!

K If that model was to verify I would bet snow would fall 100 miles NW of that surface low - N and W of philly would snow....but that is in la la land time frame

WXSIM with 6z data warmed about 1 degree from last forecast - still shows a mix of rain and S+ during heaviest precip but with the slightly warmer temps only a slushy 1/4 inch of snow - maybe we are back to a foot with the 12z GFS and NAM data! Since there is no real snow in the forecast we track WXSIM snow!! See you on the anticline this weekend! Friday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A mix of rain, sleet, and snow likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 40. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about a quarter inch. Saturday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the afternoon. A mix of rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. High 40. Wind east-southeast around 15 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. No snow accumulation expected.

LOL! That made me laugh!! Can you imagine if JB had access to this output? If so he would have no doubt sited it this week....he can always find the snowiest model or outcome!! The WXSIM programmer mainly designed it for forecasting temps....which like last weekend actually outperformed the NWS point and click for my area. The WXSIM steadfastly stuck with temps below freezing while the NWS said 37....Like any program it is only as good as the data it is ingesting....in this case the GFS for longer term and the NAM blended in for shorter term forecasts. Plus like any model when multiple days out it will not be as accurate. When it comes to snow forecasts it will often bounce around especially as it tries to account for my areas relative higher elevation mainly for storms like this upcoming weekend which have the feel of a March storm (which often has big differences over short distances based on just 200 ft of elevation gain etc.) it tries to nail the BL issues and will make a totally different forecast if the BL goes up a degree (like the latest 6z run this AM see below - where it is back to a mix with little accumulation) It should get more consistent as we get within 24 hours. I have had the tool for over 10 years and it is a fun tool for the weather hobbyist and really the only one that let's you make a true in your backyard forecast. But like any tool it is just one I would use if making a forecast....all of our go to forecasts should today and always remain the great team at the NWS in Mount Holly (we are fortunate to have the best office in the USA in my humble opinion!!) Paul

WXSIM with 18z data continues to see a real battle of precip types based almost entirely on relative elevation on Saturday. When the precip is heavy it see S+ as it lightens it's just rain. Temps never fall below freezing at the surface hanging between 32.7-33.7 with 850's just below 0c during the time of heaviest precipitation. WXSIM is back up to around 10" of very wet snow. Really feels like a March type snowstorm. In some ways reminiscent (of course not the amounts) of the March 1958 elevation driven event where just 6 miles up the road at my elevation Morgantown PA recorded 50" between the 19th-21st with 44" falling on the 20th alone with temps just above freezing for most of the event. The 6 days leading up to the event saw temps in the mid to upper 40's and the day after the snow ended went right back up toward the 50's and within 5 days all 50" was gone.