ChescoWx

Below is my 1st and Final Forecast for this event - Good luck to all!!

Latest update from the NWS

NAM QPF is overdone...but better thermals to the N and W will even out from PHL to NW of fall line in my view. That said I am still concerned that where the heaviest precip or banding is could lose a bit more at the start....again why a more blended approach like the NWS P&C has makes a lot of sense to me

Wxsim with 6z data has a wintry week ahead with 13" to 20" of snow and ice during the week an then temps staying in the teens for highs next Saturday Sunday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast, with light to moderate frost. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind north-northwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the morning. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill around 21. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Thursday night: Dense overcast, with areas of light frost likely. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the evening, then a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 22. Wind east around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Friday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then a mix of rain and snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind east around 7 mph in the morning, becoming north-northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Friday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight, with moderate to heavy frost. Snow likely. Breezy and cold. Low 16. Wind chill ranging from 8 to 26. Wind northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches.

I strongly suspect Sunday will be an elevation driven event with marginal boundary layer temps at play....some folks S and E of the fall line will lose some of that accumulating snow to cooling down the column....snow depth is indeed the better way to view this event IMOH

East Nantmeal Twp Just measured may have melted a bit but only 0.3" Temp 34.4

While it is still snowing with temps above freezing looks like we can call this one final. So let's review the storm and where it stands in historical Western Chester County PA history The 16.6" of snow accumulated as follows over the last 4 days 1/31/21 - 4.3" snow / 2/1/21 - 9.3" snow (including 2.3" IP) / 2/2/21 - 2.5" snow and 2/3/21 - 0.5" snow This snow storm now ranks as the 21st greatest snow event in Chester County PA history from 1894 to Present - top 25 storms are below

Steady snow here in East Nantmeal Twp. with this latest band - have added another 0.5" since midnight. May have to measure one final....final time for storm total - now up to 16.6" of snow

steady light snow has been ongoing for last 3 hours here in East Nantmeal....looks like more still upstream - a fresh coating all around.....if this keep up may have to measure before we close out this storm for the record books! 28.0 degrees

Continues to snow steadily here in East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chesco. We have picked up another 1.0" of snow since 6am. Total since midnight now 2.5". Storm total now up to 16.1" this is the biggest snow event in Western Chester County since the 26.0" that fell on 1/23/16. We have also tied the totals from the Blizzard of 1993 for the 22nd largest snowstorm in Chester County history back to 1894

Nice post until climate change....that made me laugh! While we all of course believe in climate change....because fact - climate is of course always changing..... Now man made warming or change?? I for one am confident this is simply a warmer cycle - check out my analysis for Chester County PA - away from the dreaded PHL heat island impact. By the time any of this speculation becomes settle science and fact....like the world is round....you and I will be long gone from this mortal coil!!

Snowing almost moderately under this band in NW Chesco

East Nantmeal Twp Snow since midnight 1.5" Storm total 15.1" Currently light snow 28.0 - looks like a heavier band incoming from the north

Continues to snow steadily here in NW Chesco with another 1.5" between 8pm and 10pm. Storm total now at 13.1" including our 2nd straight daily snow record. The 4.3" yesterday broke the old record of 3.5" set back in 1898 while the 8.8" so far today breaks the old mark of 8.0" set on this date in 1934

East Nantmeal Township in Chester County PA 2.0" since last obs at 6pm - still coming down at an at least moderate clip (see attached) Storm total Snow and IP so far 11.5"

East Nantmeal Twp - Chester County Pa 1.0" since 4pm Storm total now at 9.5" (including 2.3" of sleet)

S+ here in East Nantmeal Twp Chester County PA 8.5" snow/IP total so far with 1.3" last hour

Flipped to mostly snow here in NW Chesco at about 230pm will measure snow/IP at that point Temp 26.7

Here in East Nantmeal in NW Chesco - Still heavy sleet with some snow mixed in but still mainly IP...will measure shortly but looks like at least another 0.5" of IP to add to the snow total - certainly losing a lot of accumulation to sleet...temp 26.5

Still heavy IP mixed with some snow - 0.8" of IP and snow during the past hour - storm total now at 7.0" of snow/IP

East Nantmeal Twp. Chester County PA Still heavy IP + some flakes - another 1.3" since this AM Storm total now up to 6.3" of snow/IP

Mix of sleet and snow here in NW Chesco - driveway getting covered again - temp falling again now down to 28.0