ChescoWx

A very very tough temperature forecast as I mentioned this morning. We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM....but a backdoor cold front is on the march from off the relatively very cold mid 40's ocean. The National Weather Service has lowered their low temps to the upper 40's now across NW Chesco....some of the latest models (not a forecast model temps at 11pm tonight from the NAM) have 40's across NE Chesco to still near 70 degrees across SW Chester County. If the NAM model is correct we may never get out of the chilly 50's tomorrow across much of Northern Chesco despite the current NWS Forecast of high temps in the low 70's. Should be interesting!

Our warmest day since early November is on tap today across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am. Some valley locations across the area could reach or exceed 80 degrees today! This is nowhere near the County record of 88 degrees back in 1945. A backdoor cold front moving from NE to SW will try to cross the area toward midnight tonight. How far SW this front makes will make a huge difference across our area tomorrow. Currently the National Weather Service has highs tomorrow in the lower 70's here in East Nantmeal. This assumes the front remains NE of our area. However, some of the latest models suggest the front may almost make it to the Mason Dixon line. If this occurs we may see high temperatures, especially across Northern Chester County being at least 10 to 15 degrees lower than the current forecast. A 20-degree difference is possible from the upper 40's to the north to the 70's to the south. Rain chances to increase by Monday morning with some models showing as much as an inch of rain by late Monday night.

Our warmest day since early November is on tap today across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am. Some valley locations across the area could reach or exceed 80 degrees today! This is nowhere near the County record of 88 degrees back in 1945. A backdoor cold front moving from NE to SW will try to cross the area toward midnight tonight. How far SW this front makes will make a huge difference across our area tomorrow. Currently the National Weather Service has highs tomorrow in the lower 70's here in East Nantmeal. This assumes the front remains NE of our area. However, some of the latest models suggest the front may almost make it to the Mason Dixon line. If this occurs we may see high temperatures, especially across Northern Chester County being at least 10 to 15 degrees lower than the current forecast. A 20-degree difference is possible from the upper 40's to the north to the 70's to the south. Rain chances to increase by Monday morning with some models showing as much as an inch of rain by late Monday night.

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

A bit warmer today before our first 70 degree plus day of the year tomorrow across many of the higher spots across the area. In fact, tomorrow will be our warmest day here in East Nantmeal since the 73-degree reading back on November 7th. Still mild through Monday before a turn to cooler on Tuesday. Some showers are possible this evening, but a better chance of rain arrives Sunday night into Monday night. The Phillies home opener on Monday may be delayed till Tuesday.

A bit warmer today before our first 70 degree plus day of the year tomorrow across many of the higher spots across the area. In fact, tomorrow will be our warmest day here in East Nantmeal since the 73-degree reading back on November 7th. Still mild through Monday before a turn to cooler on Tuesday. Some showers are possible this evening, but a better chance of rain arrives Sunday night into Monday night. The Phillies home opener on Monday may be delayed till Tuesday.

Happy Phillies Opening Day to all who celebrate! Go Phillies!! Today will be our 2nd straight below normal temperature day. Through yesterday we have seen only 5 below normal days this month. We start a big warmup tomorrow and through Monday before we turn sharply colder and fall back below normal by next Tuesday. Slight rain chances on Friday night but a better chance by Sunday night through Monday.

Happy Phillies Opening Day to all who celebrate! Go Phillies!! Today will be our 2nd straight below normal temperature day. Through yesterday we have seen only 5 below normal days this month. We start a big warmup tomorrow and through Monday before we turn sharply colder and fall back below normal by next Tuesday. Slight rain chances on Friday night but a better chance by Sunday night through Monday.

We also saw a few flakes here along the soaring peaks of The Welsh Mountain anticline here in Chester County....

I actually went back and looked at the NCEI adjustments specifically for the West Chester Station (there are some gaps on both the actual and adjusted figures for quite a few years especially in 1910's / 1970's and 1990's) - but from what we have they chilled every single year from 1880 thru 1969...then began additional cooling adjustments from 1979-83 of 0.6 degrees. NCEI then decided to alter the actual data with some of the largest cooling adjustments on record from 1987 thru 1990 of between 3 and 4 degrees each year. To cap it all off they then began to consistently warm the final 10 years of actual data with a steady 0.3 degree warming adjustment made to each of the years between 2007-2017.

Sorry Charlie - the DEOS data is actually runs operationally by NCEP and all of this data has been QC'd and added to NOAA's data archive and is being used by the NCDC. The data above was in reality run without "my house". It is only NWS QC data. So which of my data has not been certified by the NWS??

LOL! Charlie knows my data is available and not hidden. Anyone can obtain and analyze the data. It is all public data. The data is the data! My methods are fully and completely disclosed. My method is to only include the actual certified NWS Cooperative Data....nothing more! No data manipulation so no methods - just raw and the facts!!

LOL!!! You will note in the above I asked Charlie to take it to the Chesco thread where we are continuing the debate....

@TheClimateChanger in case you forgot - below is the available on the internet raw data and the analysis comparing the Actual Raw data vs the altered NCEI Data for Chester County PA. This clearly shows Chesco has not warmed 2 degrees (see orange actual raw temps) according to the unaltered data. However, you can clearly see in the blue line the altered post hoc data in blue that does show that warming that can only be accomplished by recasting the actual data and ignoring all of the actual raw data in Chester County.

Thanks @TheClimateChangerExcellent!! Likely but.....drum roll please "we can’t definitively say Chester County hasn’t warmed at all. " Fake news if it was Grok to " @ChescoWx’s refusal to share raw data or engage peer review undermines their case. Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence, and they’re light on the latter" I have often shared my raw data file plus it is all available via the internet. It is available upon request to anyone. Let me know if you want it?

Grok even mentions me! It cannot confirm!!! "Without specific data for Chester County, PA, from NCEI’s raw versus adjusted records, I can’t confirm the exact nature or extent of changes for that location. However, local weather enthusiasts, like those at chescowx.com, have noted that NOAA/NCEI adjustments have historically "chilled" Chester County data from 1893 to 2005 and "warmed" more recent years.

Now you jump to another time period....let's stay focused on the period in question (1927-1947). Show us some actual data for the period we are looking at above that validate NOAA/NCEI adjusting all temperatures lower than any thermometer anywhere in the county recorded during those 21 years in question.

So you are admitting there is no actual annual average thermometer readings that you can show us in the entire county for that period that support the cooler altered NOAA/NCEI data for even one of those 21 years of data across all of those stations?? Hello McFly......

Chillier than normal for late March both today and tomorrow with highs today in the upper 40's. A below freezing night on tap tonight for most of the area. We start a nice warming trend on Friday through Monday before we turn colder than normal again by Tuesday. A slight chance of rain late Friday night with better chances by Sunday night into Monday.

Chillier than normal for late March both today and tomorrow with highs today in the upper 40's. A below freezing night on tap tonight for most of the area. We start a nice warming trend on Friday through Monday before we turn colder than normal again by Tuesday. A slight chance of rain late Friday night with better chances by Sunday night into Monday.

For @chubbsso he can more clearly see the adjustment made to each available Chester County PA station from 1927 thru 1947. As is clearly shown NCEI adjusted every station to colder than any station of record in the county for each of those years with the exception of 1940!! Charlie let us know if you can now see the adjustments made by NCEI clearly and that yes it does chill the raw temperatures every single year. It is clear as can be!! The NCEI average annual Chesco temp for all those years was in fact adjusted below what any station reported in their raw observations.

It seems you are ignoring the line on the original chart I posted that shows the "station adjusted vs coldest" That clearly shows that every single station was in fact chilled below any raw readings for each and every year from 1927 thu 1947 except for 1940. The degree of altered data from raw vs the NCEI adjustment is clearly shown there. Can't make it any clearer than that! Let's take this to the Chester County focused thread and I will circle it for you there and maybe then you see the adjustments.

You never answer the facts and data (try to focus only on the years in question) You also continue to mix up your answers! Your premise and response for Q4 is wrong - Coatesville is factually not warmer than Chester County....it should be cooler of course compared to all of those other stations you mention above. BUT if you are right and they are as you say in Q4 unsurprisingly warmer.... than why again did NCEI take those cooler Coatesville temps and no not warm them up as you would it seem believe - but instead chose to chill them below any actual real factual thermometer readings for all those years?