Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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It finally fell the rest of the way in one of the snow/ice storms and just shattered into wood chips on account of being rotted through.
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Albany going with 3-5" here, citing expected 18:1 ratios in their AFD. I believe that 3" would be miraculous.
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Airport up the street from me (720 ft) gusted to 60 mph with sustained over 40. Really impressive.
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Hopewell fire station courtesy facebook
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With the strength of the pressure gradient and depth of the mixed layer, tomorrow is probably as formidable a setup for synoptic wind as you'll ever see around here. It could really be genuinely unnerving for a few hours. Makes me glad we weren't a few ticks cooler last night and today to leave a glaze on everything in advance... bullet dodged there to an extent.
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I'm a fan of the GFS look for next weekend. It's a season-redeemer if the southern shortwave is a bit slower.
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Pitch pines flying off Wurtsboro Ridge
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There was some solid drift action going on along the south shore of the Ashokan today, although I guess anything short of deep winter in the Catskillls in February would be the bigger surprise. I'm not doing too badly imby - a nice uniform 3" base with no bare spots yet. On tomorrow, the NAM continues its multi-run trend of more moisture further north. Good if you want more ice, slush, slop, gloop, etc. Bad if you're not a psychopath.
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That's a pretty incredible difference. I was disappointed when I checked my station from the road and saw I "only" made it to 3 - had no idea most places stayed relatively warm.
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4F with a couple hours of potential cooling left. Could get a sneaky 0.
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It looks pretty nice outside with the sun breaking through the altostratus now and lighting up the fresh snow. I know last night was a Category 5 stinker in most areas, but if you lived north of POU (there are dozens of us, dozens!) and went into it expecting 2-5", then eh... it was a nice refresher, nothing more and nothing less. 24.6" now on the season. All we need is 2" of slop on Thursday, a respectable storm in March, and the inevitable 3-4" daffodil downer in April and 40" is in reach.
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This system continues to look moisture starved to me based on radar and obs. The HRRR seems to have a slightly better handle on precip distribution at 00z than the NAM... the former has clearing skies by dawn tomorrow after C-2", while the NAM fully supports warning criteria snows with mood flakes lasting until tomorrow evening. It's an interesting battle between the known NAM wet bias, and the known HRRR bad model bias.
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Yeah, they've been congregating down by the Verplanck waterfront. This morning there were "only" five visible at one time, so at least one guy just packed up and said he'd try again another day. That's how you know the reintroduction efforts have been successful. In truth, he was right... the eagles weren't really doing anything interesting. I liked this expression though.
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I had microspikes in the truck with me but figured, how bad can it be on a flat waterfront park? That worked out well...
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It was ridiculous trying to shuffle around in Verplanck/Peekskill this morning. Just 1" of completely smooth ice. Almost comical with a few of us flailing about while chasing eagles and trying to land on our keisters rather than our $$$ lenses. At least at home I have a little soft snow under the crust, so you can dig your heels in for traction.
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3.6" snow (including sleet) and .1" ice... a little more but definitely not enough to round up to .2". You're supposed to measure ice by averaging the thick and thin radii of accretion. That's a silly rule and one by which I refuse to abide.
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2.7" snow, 0.9" of sleet, and now a burgeoning glaze of ice. Dead-nuts to the Jan 20th storm.
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Yeah, sleet really sucks the big one. Does nothing for totals, does nothing for photos, makes clearing a pain, it's course and rough and irritating and gets everywhere... At least ZR looks pretty next day when the trees glimmer.
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The Pats? #rigged
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I was at 1.6" about 15 minutes ago. I figure I have another 45 minutes or so until the mix line gets here... maybe I can make it to 3" before that happens.
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It's really not worth paying attention to model ice progs. Freezing rain accretes to non-flat surfaces at a 1:4 ratio on average, so you'd need 2" of liquid to get half an inch of glaze.
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Man, the extended range 00z HRRR has 12+ hours of freezing rain starting mid-afternoon tomorrow. Hopefully it's overdoing ML warmth or surface cold or something.
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Pretty remarkable how similar Tuesday looks to the Jan storm (which feels like it may as well have been six years ago, just me?). Even down to the timing. Take what you got in that system and it's as good a call as any.
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