Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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5F
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Meh, not so much. Dropped to 10/3, but it started mixing out again... 14/-4 now. Edit: midnight update, back to making hay again. 8F and falling. C'mon snowcover!!
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16/4 here heading into dinnertime. Outside chance of below zero tomorrow am?
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Snow showers unable to survive this far SE it seems. Paying the piper for last night's coating.
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Definitely. You can see it about halfway through this overnight radar loop (time sensitive): https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=ENX-N0Q-1-200
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0.3" new here, 6F for a low
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No, it sounds right to me. Ratios were definitely a bit worse than climo away from the heavy bands. The Walden Cocorahs reporter had .53" which nicely corroborates your value
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My snow melted down to .45". I think I'm going to go with the 4.5" that fell on the hard, existing snow/ice in open areas. IMO it's a more natural method than the board, which was situated in one of the few areas with bare ground prior to this event. Was really pretty before dawn before the wind picked up and quickly cleared off the trees. As an aside, I'm completely astonished at the 16-18" reports in eastern SNE. Just incredible how that part of the country pushes snowstorms to their absolute limits.
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Nice! That's what I like to hear. You must have had some truly bonkers rates for a while
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Storm total is 4.6" on the patio table, 4.0" on the board...
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1.5" now, so roughly 1"/hr rate at the moment. About as expected. Remains to be seen whether that convective precip over the Chesapeake gains enough latitude to clip my area... sort of doubtful, but should still get into the 4-6" range even without it.
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Snow growth has definitely improved here as of late. First inch is down, real sticky stuff as expected.
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Just for fun, my call: HPN - 6.7" DXR - 7.5" POU - 5.5" SWF - 5.8" MGJ - 4.9" Jackpot at the Salem balancing rock - 8.4"
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Some intense rates progged for the wee hours. Given that this is fixed at 10:1, I'd bump the shading north by a bit. A line from Peekskill to Mahopac to Danbury is my favored jackpot corridor, accounting for the best balance of liquid and improved ratios relative to areas closer to the water.
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TropicalTidbits generates point-soundings for the op GFS, 3km NAM, HRRR, and WRFs. The College of DuPage site has RAP. If you have any questions about how to read them, I'll be happy to try and help. I'm not terribly skillful with using sounding progs in the course of operational forecasting, but I do have the theory behind them down fairly well.
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Albany mentions a R/S mix to start for me as well. I doubt either of us see much rain... if there is any liquid, it's long gone within an hour of start time.
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Not sure if folks have been paying attention (I haven't), but this week looks frigid.
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No no, you're doing terrific, I'm just a little tired. ...wait, you're not my gf.
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1.2" Third day in a row with accumulating snow; tomorrow and Monday should make five, so that's kind of cool I guess.
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Sun angle should cancel that out and keep us capped around 36".
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Nah, tomorrow is just the handful of M&M's you grab on your way out the door... Sunday night is the appetizer and March 9 is the all you can eat buffet.* *Any resemblance to actual events purely coincidental.
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It could meet advisory criteria for sure, although I think odds are against it. It's a small, late-blooming system with a suboptimal trajectory outside the benchmark... like 39N/69W on the Euro and even a little further east on the NAM. Loose ML temp gradient on the NW side means no real argument for banding, and the DGZ is shallow.
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Probably less snow than most of us got last night.
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I knew eastern Ulster had shadowing issues to some extent. Didn't think it could have been that drastic though. If you've seen evidence of it on the ground instead of just generated by an elevation algorithm, then I believe it.
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I hadn't seen this map from Albany before. Pretty interesting although I think it exaggerates the topographic influence a great deal. I'm in or near (hard to tell with the funky projection) the 76-100" speck just past the "e" in Poughkeepsie. There's no way I average anywhere close to that, especially for 1981-2010 climo. And for Gardiner to average just 21-30" while the Shaupeneak Ridge is over 60" seems pretty implausible.
