Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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Could be the last fair and mild day for quite a while. What's the occasion?
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The 18z GFS is pretty depressing with its non-stop cold rain from Monday the 8th right through the following Saturday. It's a sketchy look for the first half of the month regardless of the specifics.
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Too much sun is no good. Have to be mindful of the folks susceptible to burned scalps. The shock wave was about 30 hours slower than predicted and didn't hit until the middle of the day on Sunday, and even then it was was too weak to ignite any significant geomagnetic storming. The UP of Michigan was the furthest south from which I've seen any reports of naked-eye lights Sunday night... and that's still sort of miraculous considering the solar wind only 'jumped' to about 275 km/s.
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It's starting to get a little cloudier this hour, but the sun didn't really make a huge contribution toward making it feel warm. 50/9 here now
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Low dews, blue skies, brisk NW wind; feels like a crisp autumn day. Or maybe the opposite of autumn... that other season we used to have between winter and summer. I forget the name.
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Couple kerosene salamanders would do the trick, if you don't mind the sound of being inside a jet engine nacelle. Some of them go up to almost a million BTU. Or, yeah... just wait until 50s and sunny tomorrow.
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Snow is starting to mix in with the wind-driven rain here. The upslope precip seem pretty lackluster up the Taconics and Berks, with focus instead being the low-level convergence in the valley. HRRR has things drying out by 3-4 am, so if Brace Mtn up to Frissell and Alander are going to get the 3-7" predicted by Albany, they'd better do it quickly.
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It's been a while since I've seen so many different agencies submit their model runs to the CME scoreboard. The average arrival time prediction is early afternoon, because of course. https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/
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It's been snowing like a banshee for over two hours now. The surface is just so darn warm. If this were a couple weeks ago during the cool period, I'd almost certainly have several inches on the ground by now.
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Yeah, this is definitely one worth traveling for. Storm of the season in the northern ADKs.
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NAM really banging the drum for terrain-enhanced snows in the Taconics and eastern Catskills on Friday night. Catamount could get a nice late-season bump.
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Even as we forge ahead into the meat of meteorological spring, the winter pattern of alternating cold and rainstorms appears to continue. Thursday night could be a real deluge.
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Imagine if that were snow
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Up to Kp 5 tonight on what I think is the anniversary of that pretty good March 2015 solar storm. Nothing on the Sebec starcam and bright moon for the rest of the night means it's probably a snoozer.
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Another excellent call by yours truly. It's a wonder I'm not the president of the AMS or something.
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Yeah, nice spring day for sure. Touched 59F but clouds started thickening up before we could manage 60 in my hood. Looks like POU did it anyway. I took the convertible for first topless spin of the year. Roads are still pretty grody though so I think I may have jumped the gun... salt and sand spray on designo leather ftl.
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Ants, moths, and ticks are back in full force.
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Yeah, we'll get one lukewarm day on Friday and then back to seasonably chilly. I'm certainly not complaining about a gradual progression into spring. It's a bit interesting that we're now into top 30 longest runs without hitting 70 degrees at POU. If the 18z GFS verified and we got there for the first time on March 28, that would be good for 15th place at 168 days. Average first 70F day is March 30, so even though it's the 384 hour GFS, it's a good a guess as any.
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Today was a sorry excuse for Morch.
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Ice on my pond is still holding tough with almost complete coverage. Meanwhile some of the bigger lakes are wide open, and I saw a dude fishing (probably merely casting and fully resigned to that fact) yesterday from the shore. There really is no rhyme or reason for it as far as I can tell.
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Mostly sleet here as well, 0.8" of it. Yuck.
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Looks like IP to RN to me
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Nice, looks like deep winter there.
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Pretty much full-on mud season around here in any place that gets even a moment of direct sunlight. Still some snow if you go deep enough into the woods. At sunny and 45F today, even the most secluded walking/hiking spots were crowded... always funny on days like today when you pass one person on the trail in full winter gear – scarf, down jacket, gloves – and the next in shorts and a tee.
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Agreed, I've been really surprised by the lack of ice growth this week. It's been plenty cold and mostly still (3F this morning here). I guess the incoming solar energy this time of year balances out the FDDs. And count me as interested in the gtg as well.
