Juliancolton

Rain here at 28F with very efficient accretion rates. It's been warming at about a degree/hour, so hopefully we won't be dealing with a major ice storm. As long as you don't have a fresh source of cold air, it's pretty hard to maintain long periods of icing thanks to the latent heat release.

Take 'em down

It's good to see you board-side! We're often on the same wavelength so not surprised we both raised an eyebrow at how statements were handled yesterday. Sure, it was and is an uncertain forecast regarding total accumulations, but I think the goalposts are actually rather narrow for sensible weather impacts. Significant accumulations of frozen precip have been a near-lock for a few days. That's more than we can say about many systems, even in the past few seasons. I honestly haven't had much time to delve into the model data, so I'm in more of a wait-and-see mode than usual. Given the paradox of overrunning (stronger WAA = more precip but quicker mixing), I don't have huge expectations for today. It's especially discouraging to hear reports of sleet already (and even fzra in Newburgh, per my dad). You can cool the melting layer back down with strong enough lift, but only so much, and only for so long before the warm flow wins out. I'll finally have a chance this afternoon to pore over the forecast soundings and cross-sections for the potential deformation snows tomorrow, but as of now I think that's going to be the bigger story. Just at a cursory look, the banding on the hi-res RGEM is really impressive, and it's not terribly far off from the NAM and extended HRRR in terms of low and CCB placement. This would get most of us to double-digit totals even if today fails to deliver.

I'm surprised that watches are still up, now inside of 12 hours. I'll grant that the main event isn't until Monday, but tomorrow will still be plenty messy for an advisory.

My point forecast has no mention of mixing, which is probably a mistake. I'd be surprised if I didn't flip to sleet and/or drizzle for a time on Sunday night.

Days and days

Yeah, it's nuts. Footballs soaring through the air without anyone throwing them. Aunt Barbara's cigarettes keep flying out of her mouth and she's getting mad. Stoner cousin home from college sees trees coming through the window, and for the first time he's actually right.

Tarantino?

Amazing what a difference is made by just being a couple hundred meters closer to the sun

Ok, now it really has changed over. Sleet pellets started mixing in by 11 am and now it's all snow, albeit showery. Looks like a pretty righteous winter storm up in the Catskills.

Surprised you guys are all rain, it's been pouring snow here all morning. Vis near 0 and it's looking like a foot may be in reach. ...just kidding, 0.82"

Tight gradient, less than half that just two miles to the south

NYC: 75.5"

The potential outburst was a bust, so no loss. Most observers reported only slightly enhanced activity vs. the ambient ZHR... even when no major meteor showers are active, you can still see 5-10 per hour on average.

Hah, sadly not but it's currently flurrying at 45F. That's some shallow waa.

Hopefully we can do something about that cold rain outlook for Sunday. That would suck especially now as it's crunch time for lights.

This November has been full-on winter up here in northern Dutchess. I could live without the -20F daily departures but these little snowfalls are really nice.

Fun morning up this way. Flipped early and I ended up with 2.7" of paste

34F with -RA. Same as it ever was... ...same as it ever was... ...same as it ever was... Seriously, it hasn't budged a degree since 1 pm

Sweet shot! Future REI social media ambassador?

KPOU actually had its shortest summer since 2001, as defined by the period between the last and first lows in the teens... 226 days between 19F on 3/27 and 17F on 11/9. Average is 238 and the longest on record is 297 in, you guessed it, 2012.

Saturday

12 here, and with a constant breeze to boot. I may fake cold my way to single digits tomorrow morning

Seems like .7" will do it. Looks wintry.

A nice ground whitener @ 32F. I"ll measure when precip ends shortly, but it's not much more than .5" by my reckoning.