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Juliancolton

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Everything posted by Juliancolton

  1. Juliancolton
    I'm going to pretend like this GFS run was the final word on next weekend and just go through the rest of the week waiting on my feet and feet for days and days.
  2. Juliancolton
    We had lots of non-snow precip here. I wound up with about 7" of snow, sleet, and grauple, packed down by the interspersed periods of rain. Depth never exceeded 6", although it did stick around for weeks on account of the high density and cold pattern.
  3. Juliancolton
    Give me one 12" storm and I'll be sated. @CPcantmeasuresnow is already covered on that front.
  4. Juliancolton
    It was nice to have a relatively straightforward system for once. Of course there were the typical p-type and qpf questions, but like you say the synoptics had been pretty much pinned down for days in advance.
  5. Juliancolton
    Windy storms suck. Snowy trees are like 2/3rds of the aesthetic, so if you lose that, then meh.
  6. Juliancolton
    FWIW, here's the "low end amount" forecast from this morning. The frequency with which I get less or more snow than the worst- and best-case scenario maps, respectively, seems to suggest that the probabilities need fine-tuning. The difference between 2.8" and 3-4" is negligible, but still... the 'you will definitely get at least this much' amount should be lower in these situations.
  7. Juliancolton
    2.8" will do it here. Funnily enough that's exactly the number I had in mind this morning. I should have posted it! A few minutes of light sleet imby as well.
  8. Juliancolton
    Pretty uniform totals region-wide, nice to see. Definitely starting to lose mid-level moisture here with precip intensity decreasing quickly.
  9. Juliancolton
    Well, whether it be by changeover or shutoff, looks like most of us will be done with accumulations inside of 90 minutes. Fast-moving system with collapsing forcing mechanisms ftl.
  10. Juliancolton
    Pixie dusting my way past the 1" mark. Like pulling teeth...
  11. Juliancolton
    Short-term model guidance is part and parcel of "nowcasting" IMO. Otherwise it's just called looking at radar loops.
  12. Juliancolton
    16/2F atm with the wind still out of the NE. Doesn't bode well for the conventional swfe wall of snow to start.
  13. Juliancolton
    While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps.
  14. Juliancolton
    And, perhaps more to the point, why post something if you think it's wrong...
  15. Juliancolton
    Yeah, that's optimistic for northern areas. We're looking at a ~4-hour window for decent snow growth and there's no guarantee we utilize all of it. 2-4" is a safe call. As an aside, it feels like we've been waiting for this "event" for an eternity and it's still 48 hours out...
  16. Juliancolton
    Very much looking forward to another 2-3 months of a red tagger barking "you're wrong" at ppl without giving any reason why
  17. Juliancolton
    It's proper muggy out. Not "for January", not "compared to last week", but full stop.
  18. Juliancolton
    If the precip distribution and surface wind are favorable around daybreak Sunday, a run at 70F around daybreak wouldn't be totally out of the question. Crazy stuff.
  19. Juliancolton
    Sometimes plain-English terminology gets the point across adequately. You don't always need a turboencabulator.
  20. Juliancolton
    It's not exactly a new phrase. The "bomb cyclone" syntax has made occasional appearances in the MWR since the mid-80s, with references to meteorological bombs more generally going back even farther. The media sort of made a mockery of the term in the last couple years, but that's no fault of its own.
  21. Juliancolton
    But they've served us so well with seasonal outlooks /s
  22. Juliancolton
    Thanks guys, I'll check those out. My brother lives in Denver but is in Springfield for work one night next week, so I'm heading up to meet him for dinner. We're not typically the sort of guys who prefer one sort of food over another when browsing for places, so I leave my searches open-ended
  23. Juliancolton
    What's the best restaurant in/around Springfield?
  24. Juliancolton
    Don't tell me what to do!
  25. Juliancolton
    The folks hosting the party asked if I could be ready at 11 since people were getting tired... then they asked if I could be ready at 10. Everyone out the door and on their way to bed by 10:30. One thing about old folks is they know how to run NYE.
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