Juliancolton

We wait with bated breath to learn whether winter is still over tomorrow. Keep us posted.

At least we get an extra day to enjoy the new and improved pattern on account of the Leap Year.

You're mean.

"All cold, all the time," to borrow a phrase from our neighbors in the NE subforum. Applied to forecasters (and then some) who show a consistent wintry bias in their outlooks...

Steve D is a charter member of the ACATT syndicate and an enormous jabroni. Fractionally better than JB, if we're being charitable.

Honestly not sure. I would lean toward it being flu because of the full-body aches and stiffness. Unfortunately I neglected to get the shot this year, so it would serve me right I suppose.

Eh, can't complain. ...it would take too long

So today is the 19th day this month with a >=40F high at POU. Record is a tie at 20 days between 2012 and 1990, so we're solidly in the upper echelon of bad winters. GFS MOS maxes out at 38F tomorrow.

I have the worst cold or maybe flu in years, and it's absolutely miserable. Definitely scrub your hands to the bone for the foreseeable future.

You wouldn't starve, you'd just have to start lowering your standards as the hours ticked past. That 3-year-old steak in the freezer that you feel guilty about discarding but that you'd never eat by choice? That's going in the microwave. Gross canned soup? Fair game. You probably even have a box of instant oatmeal—God forbid—stowed away somewhere. Otherwise, the rule of threes (three minutes without oxygen, three days without water, three weeks without food) pretty much precludes any chance of starvation from the kinds of snowstorms we see. Some people were snowed-in for a week after the Lindsay storm, and that was just a spectacular display of political bungling, so it's probably hard to go much longer than that.

I want to have that guy's job. Epic.

Agreed, but this month specifically has a strong claim to suckiest January in memory. +12F through the first half (including only one subfreezing high until the 17th!!) and then when we finally get some seasonably chilly air, it will yield to a drenching 45F rain. My 2.8" total snowfall this month is only nominally less dreadful than the corresponding 2.5" in Jan '16, though I'd argue that snow went to better use, since it was spread out across three wintry days.

I'll go down with the ship, as is tradition. Besides, as of today it's just 150 days until decreasing daylight

Keep us posted. Never was quite sure what it means to give up on winter or throw in the towel or whatever verbiage you please. If it snows, will you protest and stay in bed until it's over? Will you simply refuse to acknowledge the sensation of cold until next December?

Meticulously respooling all my reels with the best braided line money can buy, so I can backlash them on my first cast in the spring

The first storm was the really destructive one around here - more tree damage imby than in the Octobomb, even with 1/2 to 1/3 of the total accumulation, depending on how often you measure. A couple of the 75+ year-old Norway spruces that used to have perfect Christmas tree shapes are now forever all straggly-looking. That was the one where I spent the night in Shandaken and nearly couldn't find a passable route home.

Yup, doesn't matter what the numbers say if one knows what they narrowly missed out on.

Did you fare any better with the next storm? I think that was more uniform across the area, but after a season or two, all except the most extreme weather events sort of blend together in my head. That was a good month up here, though... I went 9" - 15" - 6" (ish) with the storms on the 2nd, 7th, and 12th, then picked up another 4" toward the end of the month.

This weekend's threat has shades of the first March '18 storm. Hopefully we tick a little colder than that ended up being.

I'm going to pretend like this GFS run was the final word on next weekend and just go through the rest of the week waiting on my feet and feet for days and days.

It was nice to have a relatively straightforward system for once. Of course there were the typical p-type and qpf questions, but like you say the synoptics had been pretty much pinned down for days in advance.

Windy storms suck. Snowy trees are like 2/3rds of the aesthetic, so if you lose that, then meh.

FWIW, here's the "low end amount" forecast from this morning. The frequency with which I get less or more snow than the worst- and best-case scenario maps, respectively, seems to suggest that the probabilities need fine-tuning. The difference between 2.8" and 3-4" is negligible, but still... the 'you will definitely get at least this much' amount should be lower in these situations.

2.8" will do it here. Funnily enough that's exactly the number I had in mind this morning. I should have posted it! A few minutes of light sleet imby as well.

Well, whether it be by changeover or shutoff, looks like most of us will be done with accumulations inside of 90 minutes. Fast-moving system with collapsing forcing mechanisms ftl.