Juliancolton

I was smoking an outstanding cigar tonight (Midnight Express maduro by Caldwell) and had a moment of overdue clarity in my relaxed state of mind: it's probably not gonna snow that much on May 9th. We back-end coating if we lucky.

I'm locking that in, no offense

It's funny, the other day I was thinking about sequence of moods from "want snow for snow's sake" to "don't want snow" and then "want snow again for the novelty" as spring progresses. If you asked me one month ago I'd have said to heck with it. Now, bring it on.

Lord. Wreckage on the GFS.

How we also pray. Let's get this inside of 48, please.

Ohhh how we pray.

AWT

Aye, we record lows and probably we at least flake. There are a few different waves that could all deepen just a hair more and introduce the possibility of messy accums.

We really needed this rain, I was starting to get worried about water levels

0.79" here so far. Looks like another rainy afternoon on top. The models have been frigid in the long-range for multiple cycles now. The GFS op has three or four shots of sub-528 dm thicknesses starting around D8, and the EPS/GEFS certainly support that kind of pattern. Frost danger through mid-month at least.

Sunday looks salvageable. Not a gem but mild with periods of sun. GFS has a little more moisture around in the afternoon than the Euro.

The delayed exit seems to have been real, but the ULL trended south today such that we end up under a more diffluent regime for most of Saturday. Clear until evening with potential for spot 70F if that holds. The models have been pretty chaotic with this period. It's been interesting to watch... if there were even whispers of frozen precip, everyone would be losing their minds over these swings.

As feared, the upper low is hanging back more and more with each run.

It's extra awful this year, both in perception and all objective measures. Usually by May we've had at least one meaningful stretch of decent weather. It seems that the best we can do this spring is the occasional near-normal day when it feels kinda-sorta nice if the wind dies down. We may try to sneak in some transient ridging next weekend, though I don't trust that Friday storm not to overstay its welcome.

So we're officially past the average first 80F day at POU. Last year came within a few days of all-time latest. Can we do it again? GEFS and EPS certainly show no risk of breaking that particular ceiling any time soon.

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I'm pretty sure I've seen snow on more days in April than I did in any of the preceding three months.

Fake cold in full effect right now. Already down to 27 in the backyard but but still 35 on top of the hill down the road.

My dogs are 11 (mastiff) and 17 (tiny poodle mutt)... if they could even see or hear an invading rodent they still couldn't be arsed to get up and do anything about it.

42F by the river in PK and 28F at the house. Different worlds a few miles apart.

US 44 between Millbrook and North Canaan is a beautiful route any time of year. It's sort of a trip to the past as one drives through the little communities that time left behind. With the exception of a few convenience stores, you won't find any retail chains in Millerton, Millerton, Salisbury, etc... just old-fashioned hardware stores, original diners, little B&Bs. It's charming. These villages are very interested in maintaining that aesthetic by controlling who can open up. With the new rail trails, hiking trails, state and local parks, and other attractions along that corridor, it's a pretty under-appreciated part of the region IMO. I've been in Millbrook 19 years now and it's the same as it ever was. Quite literally indistinguishable from 2001 in almost all respects. I find it comforting in a way.

Just rain here, any snow that may have fallen is long gone. 2020 will 2020...

HRRR and NAM ticked quite a bit warmer in southern parts of the WWA area. I'm starting to get that too-familiar winter 2019-20 feeling (you know the one). For posterity, point forecast is 3-7" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow.

Yeah, reopening needs to happen sooner than later if people are to stay in business. I just wonder whether the official lifting of shutdown will be enough to stop the bleeding. Hopefully most people are comfortable going out to eat, going to the mall, visiting specialty shops, etc. with reasonable precautions. There's gonna be a lot of soul-searching and hand-wringing in the coming months and years, to be sure. I'll have no problem sitting down for dinner in a clean restaurant or buying clothes in roomy stores, but will I ever feel totally at ease again spending a Saturday afternoon shopping at Woodbury? Hard to say... Count me in. When this is all over, socializing > everything else Back to all rain here. The southerly flow up the valley is doing me no favors.

I ended up getting a burger to go from the local gastropub... pretty depressing scenes. Tables stacked in the corner, designated standing area 6 feet from the bar while paying, special receptacle for "used" pens awaiting disinfecting. I'm sure they must be doing some tenuous business, else it wouldn't be worth staying open, but it really hits home how badly these places are suffering. That joint is swamped on a normal Friday from early afternoon to the wee hours, and now you have a few stragglers sheepishly ambling through the door over the course of the night. Terrible. Anyway, white rain here at 34/33. Looks like this is going to be entirely dependent on rates. Needs to come down faster than it can melt.