Juliancolton

Just had a mighty gust from the NW and then precip flipped to snow like a switch. Incredible.

Yeah, this is the case for me as well I believe. Though if I'd seen a stray flake at some point in like 2002 I'm not so sure I'd remember. Remarkably, one week from today is the 2nd anniversary of the worst severe wx day in the modern history of the HV. I love living in the mid-latitudes! Still 39F here with a light SE flow, though the fropa is just minutes away per radar.

The hi-res models still look good for a coupletwothree hours of post-frontal snow starting between 10 and 11. I'll stay up for it.

I was smoking an outstanding cigar tonight (Midnight Express maduro by Caldwell) and had a moment of overdue clarity in my relaxed state of mind: it's probably not gonna snow that much on May 9th. We back-end coating if we lucky.

I'm locking that in, no offense

It's funny, the other day I was thinking about sequence of moods from "want snow for snow's sake" to "don't want snow" and then "want snow again for the novelty" as spring progresses. If you asked me one month ago I'd have said to heck with it. Now, bring it on.

Lord. Wreckage on the GFS.

How we also pray. Let's get this inside of 48, please.

Ohhh how we pray.

AWT

Aye, we record lows and probably we at least flake. There are a few different waves that could all deepen just a hair more and introduce the possibility of messy accums.

We really needed this rain, I was starting to get worried about water levels

0.79" here so far. Looks like another rainy afternoon on top. The models have been frigid in the long-range for multiple cycles now. The GFS op has three or four shots of sub-528 dm thicknesses starting around D8, and the EPS/GEFS certainly support that kind of pattern. Frost danger through mid-month at least.

Sunday looks salvageable. Not a gem but mild with periods of sun. GFS has a little more moisture around in the afternoon than the Euro.

The delayed exit seems to have been real, but the ULL trended south today such that we end up under a more diffluent regime for most of Saturday. Clear until evening with potential for spot 70F if that holds. The models have been pretty chaotic with this period. It's been interesting to watch... if there were even whispers of frozen precip, everyone would be losing their minds over these swings.

As feared, the upper low is hanging back more and more with each run.

It's extra awful this year, both in perception and all objective measures. Usually by May we've had at least one meaningful stretch of decent weather. It seems that the best we can do this spring is the occasional near-normal day when it feels kinda-sorta nice if the wind dies down. We may try to sneak in some transient ridging next weekend, though I don't trust that Friday storm not to overstay its welcome.

So we're officially past the average first 80F day at POU. Last year came within a few days of all-time latest. Can we do it again? GEFS and EPS certainly show no risk of breaking that particular ceiling any time soon.

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I'm pretty sure I've seen snow on more days in April than I did in any of the preceding three months.

Fake cold in full effect right now. Already down to 27 in the backyard but but still 35 on top of the hill down the road.

My dogs are 11 (mastiff) and 17 (tiny poodle mutt)... if they could even see or hear an invading rodent they still couldn't be arsed to get up and do anything about it.

42F by the river in PK and 28F at the house. Different worlds a few miles apart.

US 44 between Millbrook and North Canaan is a beautiful route any time of year. It's sort of a trip to the past as one drives through the little communities that time left behind. With the exception of a few convenience stores, you won't find any retail chains in Millerton, Millerton, Salisbury, etc... just old-fashioned hardware stores, original diners, little B&Bs. It's charming. These villages are very interested in maintaining that aesthetic by controlling who can open up. With the new rail trails, hiking trails, state and local parks, and other attractions along that corridor, it's a pretty under-appreciated part of the region IMO. I've been in Millbrook 19 years now and it's the same as it ever was. Quite literally indistinguishable from 2001 in almost all respects. I find it comforting in a way.

Just rain here, any snow that may have fallen is long gone. 2020 will 2020...