Juliancolton

Yup. The Euro will get it done - much better than 12z. Deform band rotting overhead as the low occludes and pulls east in the wee hours on Thursday. ~1.75" liquid along 84.

The UK mid-levels were about as good as it gets for us. That model and the Euro are a killer duo when they're in lock-step... if the Euro shows a nice hit, I'll feel a lot more confident in the potential for double-digit totals.

Ugh. I'm having such a hard time betting against the GFS. The southerly solution has made the most sense to me for almost a week now, and this isn't 2010... the GFS is good. I'd definitely at least toss it in the stew to help balance out the ridiculous Canadian QPF.

I think this is a really good first(?) call from Albany. The messaging for the interior should be that a significant but not crippling snowstorm is on the way. If expectations are kept in check, all here should have a very enjoyable Thursday morning.

No need to brag

No, per the document Rob linked to: "This measurement should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) within the past 24 hours even if this total occurs at a time preceding the regularly scheduled observation time." So the goal is to get as close as possible to maximum depth from the event, OR to clear and measure after 24 hours, if required. That said, everyone seems to have their own methodology. I follow the above guideline except (for my personal records) in situations where additional snowfall is expected to follow a temporary p-type change. So if I get 3", then a period of rain, then another 3", with depth never exceeding 4", I'll record it as 6" instead of 4". Again, though, I adhere to the standard protocol more closely when reporting to the NWS.

Still 33F here, so melting resumed as soon as snowfall rates eased up. Max depth may have briefly touched 0.6" for the period, but I only ever measured .5" so there we are I guess.

@LibertyBell, today is exactly halfway between the 2017 and 2024 eclipses. Only 1,211 days left until my next serotonin molecule is released!

It's been said before, but modeled precip is often inflated along the periphery. You have to look at the mid-level forcing mechanisms to see where the northern deform band will set up and drop significant totals... north of that corridor, it turns into a non-event very quickly. Even if HPN jackpots, warning-criteria snowfall to I-90 seems very unlikely.

Spent the morning flip-flopping between rain, sleet, and snow, but now all snow and starting to form a healthy coating on all non-paved surfaces. Likely around a half inch on the board with decent snow growth at 33/31. Visibility is low, somewhere around 3/4 mile, but fog is contributing to at least some of that reduction. edit: @gravitylover it's interesting that our wx is often so similar despite the different latitudes. That extra bit of elevation makes you an honorary north of I-84er I think.

It'll be nice to enjoy C-2" tomorrow while we wait for clarity on the midweek system. The Canadian suite looked pretty sweet for most here, but of course that and a token will get you a ride on the subway...

AWT

He took up landscape photography and is really good at it. Just travels the world shooting the most awesome places without ever having to worry about showing up on Monday. Jealousy.

You're fooling nobody.

+10

You'll note that I never clarified snow. Could be measurable anything, really.

Looks lovely. You would have to think measurable or even plowable is a lock at this point. ...not to spike the football, or anything

It's been incrementally throwing more moisture back NW with the past few runs, but yeah, I favor south currently. The good(?) news is that it's nowhere near Jan 16 levels even in the jackpot zone. Some poor SOB will have to make do with a measly 8-12".

One thing I would not count on is 2020 paying its debts...

Lots of folks in the GP talking about the big one coming next week. You can color my leery for sure. I'd like to see more guidance get on board with a more robust trough to allay fringe/weaksauce fears.

Today is threatening to become a nice day. 44 with part sun, we hoodie.

They're treating the roads. For what, I'm not sure.

A dusting on mulch, and pickup, beds, but otherwise just wet here at 31.8. Hopefully we can scour out the stratus layer before any potential geomagnetic storming tonight.

19 here so far. Orographic cloudiness is thickening up a bit, so probably near the end of the nose-dive.

Nature is healing. A full-halo on LASCO, albeit somewhat faint. That Goddard 6z/9 estimated arrival would be perfectly timed to connect with the CIR shock already en route, so maybe we'll get some nice numbers. Hopefully this cycle doesn't pick up where the last one left off with impact invariably happening at like 8 am.