-
Posts
8,514 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Juliancolton
-
Looks like that activity I mentioned is mostly setting up shop well to the north. Probably not gonna be very exciting for most here.
-
This is how people look when they measure to the nearest quarter and write it as 2.25"
-
Yeah I might have an inch, I can't be arsed to measure at the moment. Getting chilly though so roads are consequently getting a bit treacherous.
-
"Round 2" itself has two or three minor upper-level impulses that will trigger light snow in dribs and drabs over the next 18-24 hours. The next little period of activity is taking shape as you noted. Best chance to reach the low ends of forecast ranges will be in the wee hours tomorrow morning, maybe midnight to 5 am, with a little vortmax swinging through. Even then, the mesoscale guidance points to rates under a quarter inch per hour. Hey @IrishRob17, how do we feel about "weaksauce"?
-
The hi-res NAM still gets around half an inch of liquid into your area, despite the shift SE at 12z. Hopefully it's correct. Not expecting much up here. It'll be a tall order to get more than 3" or so without any help from this first wave. Join the parthenocarpic revolution!
-
Allergy season is any time a plant somewhere is reproducing, so March to November, inclusive. I've had measurable snow in April 5 out of the last 7 years and my allergies are still brutal all season. I think you'd need an extended deep freeze to really dampen pollen counts, but who wants to see everyone lose their fruit crops for the year?
-
I have patches of bare ground just starting to open up, though shaded areas still have a good 6-8"... but after the wind last night, it's covered with pine needles and marcescent leaves and not very attractive anymore, like you said. Hopefully tomorrow into Friday doesn't turn into one of your nothingburgers as this afternoon's trends suggest.
-
First annuals are being started this afternoon – and I think today is pitchers and catchers as well? Time to wrap it up with winter. Let's do one more warning event and then make a clean break.
-
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
-
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That's when we do some of our best work. -
Any other day I'd offer to haul my blower down there, but alas, my truck is in the shop with a dead power steering pump. Hopefully you can find someone nearby to help out. Up to 31F here now. While low-level flow is still out of the north, the temp should climb above freezing in short order when heavier precip moves in and starts releasing latent heat.
-
Yeah this sucks. I don't think I'm up to a tenth yet but the bigger problem imby is wet pavement flash-freezing. Driveway is completely impassable on foot.
-
I feel very confident that ice isn't going to be a huge issue tonight. Even if there's a wafer-thin freezing layer at the surface, the melting layer aloft is warm and deep. While not discussed as much as with snow, ratios are an important consideration for ice accretion as well. Torched mid-levels like this mean raindrops are hitting the ground relatively warm, and mostly running off surfaces straddling the freezing mark. So this might be 0.1" or less of radial accretion for every inch of water. It'll be slick of course, care and reasonable precautions should be taken, but we're not waking up to a thick glaze.
-
Yeah, Dec 2008 was pretty epic. I did that same drive up the Taconic. That was the last time I saw more than a couple tenths of an inch of glaze. Big ice can happen but as alluded to, it requires a near-perfect setup that doesn't come along very often.
-
Looking at model trends for this week like
-
Not exactly related to what you're saying, but people who will quote a post the size of a novel with 15 images just to say "Hope it snows" should be drawn and quartered.
-
I need to get a trailer for my Kubota. We could relocate your snowbanks quicker than a weenie cancels winter after a mild GFS run
-
Forcing me to read the main threads is against the Geneva Convention.
-
And an induction to the 50" club, no less! Heck of a way to run the worst winter of all time.
-
This visual reminds me a lot of the 'finger rafting' sea ice phenomenon with the interleaved stripes of cooler and warmer air. I wonder if the physical mechanisms are anything alike.
-
No snowfall obs? You guys are getting ungrateful. smh 0.3" here
-
Yeah, model QPF was extremely good in most areas, except for the very southern fringe of the moisture plume. One of the better-behaved systems of the year thus far.
-
OBs and nowcast TUESDAY 2A-6P Feb 9, 2021
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Nice sunset up in this region. Perhaps the best of the year so far. 3.2" storm total on 0.31" liquid. Nice little event, though ratios left a lot to be desired.- 82 replies
-
- 2
-
-
- snow
- freezing rain
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
OBs and nowcast TUESDAY 2A-6P Feb 9, 2021
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Radar returns are really falling apart upstream from me. Probably not going to be too many surprises on the high end... a general 2-4" as we've thought for a while.- 82 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- snow
- freezing rain
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
OBs and nowcast TUESDAY 2A-6P Feb 9, 2021
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
1.7" here so far. In a pretty decent band with nice snow growth at the moment.- 82 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- snow
- freezing rain
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with: