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Juliancolton

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Everything posted by Juliancolton

  1. Juliancolton
    Looks like that activity I mentioned is mostly setting up shop well to the north. Probably not gonna be very exciting for most here.
  2. Juliancolton
    This is how people look when they measure to the nearest quarter and write it as 2.25"
  3. Juliancolton
    Yeah I might have an inch, I can't be arsed to measure at the moment. Getting chilly though so roads are consequently getting a bit treacherous.
  4. Juliancolton
    "Round 2" itself has two or three minor upper-level impulses that will trigger light snow in dribs and drabs over the next 18-24 hours. The next little period of activity is taking shape as you noted. Best chance to reach the low ends of forecast ranges will be in the wee hours tomorrow morning, maybe midnight to 5 am, with a little vortmax swinging through. Even then, the mesoscale guidance points to rates under a quarter inch per hour. Hey @IrishRob17, how do we feel about "weaksauce"?
  5. Juliancolton
    The hi-res NAM still gets around half an inch of liquid into your area, despite the shift SE at 12z. Hopefully it's correct. Not expecting much up here. It'll be a tall order to get more than 3" or so without any help from this first wave. Join the parthenocarpic revolution!
  6. Juliancolton
    Allergy season is any time a plant somewhere is reproducing, so March to November, inclusive. I've had measurable snow in April 5 out of the last 7 years and my allergies are still brutal all season. I think you'd need an extended deep freeze to really dampen pollen counts, but who wants to see everyone lose their fruit crops for the year?
  7. Juliancolton
    I have patches of bare ground just starting to open up, though shaded areas still have a good 6-8"... but after the wind last night, it's covered with pine needles and marcescent leaves and not very attractive anymore, like you said. Hopefully tomorrow into Friday doesn't turn into one of your nothingburgers as this afternoon's trends suggest.
  8. Juliancolton
    First annuals are being started this afternoon – and I think today is pitchers and catchers as well? Time to wrap it up with winter. Let's do one more warning event and then make a clean break.
  9. Juliancolton
  10. Juliancolton
    That's when we do some of our best work.
  11. Juliancolton
    Any other day I'd offer to haul my blower down there, but alas, my truck is in the shop with a dead power steering pump. Hopefully you can find someone nearby to help out. Up to 31F here now. While low-level flow is still out of the north, the temp should climb above freezing in short order when heavier precip moves in and starts releasing latent heat.
  12. Juliancolton
    Yeah this sucks. I don't think I'm up to a tenth yet but the bigger problem imby is wet pavement flash-freezing. Driveway is completely impassable on foot.
  13. Juliancolton
    I feel very confident that ice isn't going to be a huge issue tonight. Even if there's a wafer-thin freezing layer at the surface, the melting layer aloft is warm and deep. While not discussed as much as with snow, ratios are an important consideration for ice accretion as well. Torched mid-levels like this mean raindrops are hitting the ground relatively warm, and mostly running off surfaces straddling the freezing mark. So this might be 0.1" or less of radial accretion for every inch of water. It'll be slick of course, care and reasonable precautions should be taken, but we're not waking up to a thick glaze.
  14. Juliancolton
    Yeah, Dec 2008 was pretty epic. I did that same drive up the Taconic. That was the last time I saw more than a couple tenths of an inch of glaze. Big ice can happen but as alluded to, it requires a near-perfect setup that doesn't come along very often.
  15. Juliancolton
    Looking at model trends for this week like
  16. Juliancolton
    Not exactly related to what you're saying, but people who will quote a post the size of a novel with 15 images just to say "Hope it snows" should be drawn and quartered.
  17. Juliancolton
    I need to get a trailer for my Kubota. We could relocate your snowbanks quicker than a weenie cancels winter after a mild GFS run
  18. Juliancolton
    Forcing me to read the main threads is against the Geneva Convention.
  19. Juliancolton
    And an induction to the 50" club, no less! Heck of a way to run the worst winter of all time.
  20. Juliancolton
    This visual reminds me a lot of the 'finger rafting' sea ice phenomenon with the interleaved stripes of cooler and warmer air. I wonder if the physical mechanisms are anything alike.
  21. Juliancolton
    No snowfall obs? You guys are getting ungrateful. smh 0.3" here
  22. Juliancolton
    Yeah, model QPF was extremely good in most areas, except for the very southern fringe of the moisture plume. One of the better-behaved systems of the year thus far.
  23. Juliancolton
    Nice sunset up in this region. Perhaps the best of the year so far. 3.2" storm total on 0.31" liquid. Nice little event, though ratios left a lot to be desired.
  24. Juliancolton
    Radar returns are really falling apart upstream from me. Probably not going to be too many surprises on the high end... a general 2-4" as we've thought for a while.
  25. Juliancolton
    1.7" here so far. In a pretty decent band with nice snow growth at the moment.
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