Juliancolton

Briefly considered a jebwalk to marvel at this historic event, then I remembered that rain sucks a lot

Unfolding as expected with widespread 1"+/hr rainfall rates now. Pond is already flooding the road so that's gonna get pretty bad

This is the HREF ensemble mean. Not even member max, but the mean. Heck of a signal.

What a disaster the main thread is. Terrible. Anyway... beyond the obvious issues, it's worth keeping an eye on winds late this evening. Rather potent low- to mid-level jet with 50kt+ flow not too far off the ground. We're lucky to have a deep stable layer to keep those winds aloft most of the time, but I'm sure it'll get breezy in the heaviest downpours. Some of the algorithms do show a period of 50-60 mph gusts. While one can safely discount those numbers, even a few 30 mph gusts would probably become problematic after several inches of rain.

Generally 10-year return period for WPC QPF, but potential for patches of much longer 25- and even 50-year intervals.

From the HPC, generally 10-year return periods for 24-hour QPF but potential for 25 and even 50-year rainfall events in spots.

Not on the nested version, at least.

These values would be decent as snowfall accums

I met up with my dad and we watched the DCSO K9 demonstration from the tent. Hard to beat a cold one while watching the good doggies eat some people

Of course! Chocolate. The Dutchess County Dairy Committee took it over from 4H which is a little bit of a bummer, but at least it still goes towards local ag and not like Dairy Queen or something.

Summer 2021 remains undefeated in crappy weekend wx. I did manage to sneak in a few hours at the DC fair earlier.

Just felt a little bit of a cooler breeze out of the E. I think the front is finally through based on that and pressure rises at stations to the north

Didn't hit 100, doesn't count

Enjoy. Hoping to make a couple last batches of zucchini muffins tonight - they're my quintessential summertime treat. With the exception of tomatoes, most veggies are on their last legs as disease and pest pressure reach peak levels.

It sucks having to mow the lawn every 5 days at the end of August. Bring back the drought.

93/78

Really? Had no idea

It's 71F and I can see my breath in the moonlight. Just bonkers levels of moisture in the air.

2.62" is my final Stratus total from Henri. Glad it wasn't much more than that as streams are pretty swollen. Also, soupy. 79/75

Apparently, it cannot.

I think this is a recognized thing with TCs but I have no idea why. Drop size? Drop shape? Fall speed? One day I'll try and learn something about the weather that doesn't have to do with snow. Not today tho.

Little bit of firehose action leading to a soggy morning here, but at least it's moving. Closing in on 3". SW CT really getting doused as usual

Yeah, tonight is gonna suck for a lot of spots. Hopefully all stay alert tonight in case the the need to bail quickly arises.

Henri's LLC was near Torrington at the day's last visible satellite frames. There's also some kind of mesoscale circulation over southern Orange that appears to be enhancing precip rates. Little spokes of heavier echoes rotating around it

Looking more and more like east of the river will avoid the worst of it. I guess the wildcard is how much steam is left tomorrow when everything pivots back through, possibly reinvigorated a bit by daytime instability