Juliancolton

I was actually thinking fairly pedestrian again. The models keep the northerly winds going through the night at 4-6 kts, enough to prevent most places from decoupling. The HRRR tries to calm things down toward 6z, but it's touch and go with pressure falls occurring to the south. We do have a pretty good jumping-off point though - I'm sitting at 16, down from a high of 17. With otherwise good conditions as you pointed out, it wouldn't take more than a couple hours of slack winds to really nosedive, so I will leave that possibility open. I'll go -5F for me and -3F for you. Our spread last Sunday was 3 degrees, so tighten that by a degree or so per the slightly breezier conditions.

I was gonna say... this region is like the Mecca of isolation a short drive from civilization. There are countless towns in Litchfield, Ulster, Pike, etc. where you can own a house miles from your neighbor, be unable to find a cell signal, and not have your road plowed until three days after it snows, while still being 90 minutes from the financial capital of the world.

Yeah, winding down here after a very pretty 1.0". Better than a sharp stick in the eye.

Yeah, I've never found a useful period for KPOU snowfall. It's a shame. Years ago, someone showed me these highly detailed average snowfall maps for the Appalachian Trail corridor, which includes a good swath of NNJ, the HV, and the Berks. I never found out too much about where the data comes from or what the period of record is. Still, given the lack of alternatives (plus how pretty they are), I do refer to them at times. https://weathercarrot.smugmug.com/Weathercarrot-photos/AT-Snow-Maps/

How's everybody doing on running snow totals? I have 8.6" YTD. I'm sure someone has the data to show that's only like 3" below average for the date, but subjectively it ranks up there with the all-time stinkers imby

The timing was abysmal though, no sugar-coating that part. Everything was starting to get that marshmallow look when I got up at 3:30 to measure, but of course it was slop by the time twilight rolled around.

Definitely nothing to write home about. Purely from an academic perspective, I think we did about as well as we could have given the setup. The valley stayed frozen for as long as the coldest guidance, and ended up near the upper bounds of the QPF progs. It could have easily been 1.5" followed by hours of alternating sleet and drizzle.

What a despicable slushy mess. It was pouring rain at times while I was clearing. Sun's out now, which is good for getting down to pavement, but would have been welcomed about 90 minutes ago...

The HRRR held its own too. I'm starting to like that model for marginal temp setups. Glad you guys cleaned up... I knew a good thump was in the cards, but definitely didn't see 8+ coming down the pipe Up to 40F here, meanwhile

3.4" measured just after the flip to sleet. Not terrible, all things considered. 31.6F

Snow growth sucks here and will probably not improve much through the evening. I still think west of the river stands to do better... more distance from the core of the mid-level warm tongue, less shadowing off the Taconics.

Snowing with decent intensity here in central Dutchess. Not sure I'd say it meets the moderate threshold yet. Coating on all surfaces.

Column is well-saturated by 9 pm on the HRRR. Maybe flakes start flying around 8?

I think folks west of the river are in for a nice front-end thump. Model trends have been good for speeding up precip onset and delaying the mid-level warmth a bit. Wouldn't be shocked to see someone in the OC get 6" before the mix.

Up to 23F here under mostly sunny skies. Sneaky nice day.

Nice, that's an awesome example. Biggest one I've seen from last night (twss)

-4 here. As an aside, the westward-moving pressure wavefront around midnight was quite a bit more pronounced around here than the first perturbation, might be worth checking your station again. I had a 1.7 mb drop in 5 minutes between 12:04 and 12:09. Here's the Walkill mesonet station with fully a 2-mb drop. I don't even care about the storm anymore. This stuff is way more fun, lol

I'm definitely no expert on wave propagation. Then again, I'm no expert on any of the things I carry on about here...

It's somewhere in there, if you squint your eyes. What's your refresh rate? You can *just* see it in my noisy 5-minute data.

I have it centered around 10:50 am. You can see the progression of the wave easily via the NY Mesonet... here are the stations at Buffalo (pressure wave at 10:35), Belleville (10:45), and Dover here in my neck of the woods (10:55). It loses a lot of amplitude as it moves away from the lakes and has to contend with terrain once again.

Already down to 4 here. We'll see where it ends up. Pipes are frozen despite my heat tape so that's a bummer. It was cool seeing my station pick up the pressure rise/fall couplet from the Tonga volcano. Nothing like places on the east coasts of water bodies, but still fascinating to me.

Made it down to -1 here earlier. The wind is a killer today...

We all hold the models in different levels of esteem. Some feel compelled to stay up late for the Euro a week ahead of time, while others are content to just wait and see what falls. It's all fair play. It must be said, though, for those so inclined, we've never had access to more free model data than we do now. In fact, with Pivotal and weather.us supplying free hi-res Euro graphics, I don't subscribe to any paid sites anymore. This is the golden age of wx info.

Fact check: true. Real snow comes from biological ice nuclei. Accept no imitations.

Banned