Juliancolton

We're not there yet - there's still plenty of inherent uncertainty at this lead time - but we could be setting up for quite the challenging model battle.

In whatever the hell this model is, we trust.

I'd argue the end result was still a world away. We got a cleaner phase with the southern stream this run, but the Euro's solution actually takes a messy phase in stride - it strings out the southern vortmax and leaves more energy behind. We get the Euro bomb from a more aggressive northern stream and better upstream ridge amplitude.

You guys oversold that one a little bit

Hey @the_other_guy, any thoughts about the quality of the season so far?

The eagle flies at midnight. Snow - white? namaste

Out of curiosity, what does this mean? Do you agree with that outlook or are you expecting something else? Would love to hear any analysis you may have.

It's coming. We may not jack, but it's coming. edit: I'm too lazy to fix the phrasing there, knock yourselves out

0.9" of nice dendritic fluff. A pleasant little pack freshener, although I do wish it would snow during the daytime at some point.

Don't threaten me with a good time.

Absolutely, we talk about that just about every year in here. I don't have my KU book in front of me, but I have to assume the benchmark was their conception made through the lens of the I-95 corridor. I remember when I got the book as a kid, I was almost angry that some of the HV's biggest snowstorms were profiled in the afterthought "interior/near misses" section all the way in the back. lol Tuck the low until I'm sweating the mixing line.

Warm seclusion. It's common in mature oceanic storms when the bent-back warm front wraps around the center.

I'll raise my glass to Canada. That's a pretty epic storm of the kind you don't pass up. What I cannot abide is that Euro solution with its 5-9" of sand that ruins the ice as well as our futility bid, while burying Boston under feet and feet. Then again, avoiding English beer shouldn't be too much of an imposition...

As much as I'd love a significant snowfall this weekend, I must lament that it would probably put an end to ice season after maybe 10 good days of skating/fishing/ice yachting. It's hard to envision getting cold enough for long enough after the progged warm-up in early Feb and beyond.

I'd love to see it develop 12-18 hours earlier, lest the best conveyor belt dynamics be relegated to NNE. That system is in its infancy there.

They should have sent a poet.

Measure that, you ingrate!

Something between a dusting and a coating here. 21/18

It's funny how quickly "you never want to be in the bullseye 7 days out" turns into "the day 7 threat is dead" when only one or two models at a time have you in the bullseye.

The airplane guy will have a conniption.

That's a good point about snowcover differences. The deeper the better for radiating. I'm down to about 1.5" of crunchy glacial refuse.

Strange night for sure in that regard. -15 in Bethel and -16 in Woodbourne stand out on a cursory look... wouldn't be surprised if a few hollows in Sullivan and/or western Orange touched -20. -5.8 was the low here. My general call held up nicely in and around the valley, at least.

-4.4 currently. Some impressive cold showing up in sheltered spots in the southern Catskills (I see you, -13 in Fallsburg)

7/-3 currently. My P&C got nudged up a bit to -2, so we'll see. The cirrus canopy is a good bit farther north than modeled... gotta get that out of here. As an aside, I'm going to become the Joker if this verifies.

I was actually thinking fairly pedestrian again. The models keep the northerly winds going through the night at 4-6 kts, enough to prevent most places from decoupling. The HRRR tries to calm things down toward 6z, but it's touch and go with pressure falls occurring to the south. We do have a pretty good jumping-off point though - I'm sitting at 16, down from a high of 17. With otherwise good conditions as you pointed out, it wouldn't take more than a couple hours of slack winds to really nosedive, so I will leave that possibility open. I'll go -5F for me and -3F for you. Our spread last Sunday was 3 degrees, so tighten that by a degree or so per the slightly breezier conditions.