north pgh

Hoping for my first thunderstorm of the year tonight

Still waiting for my first thunderstorm of the year

Back to tomorrow... it looks like a small burst of snow showers around daybreak tomorrow. Don't be surprised if we see some good snow showers and a potential squall during the mid to late afternoon. I'm pretty sure we won't see much sticking but should be fun to see. I can remember growing up as a kid in the 70's getting some nice spring bursts with the dark skies just before the snow showers would hit leaving some white in the grassy areas.

I think this is a good thing. Too many people are clueless when it comes to the difference between watches and warnings.

Picked up close to an inch here. Tapering off now. Looks like it is about done. Pretty much as expected.

Forecast BUFKIT profiles suggest precipitation onset as all snow; and with sufficient moisture through the DGZ, a few inches snow may accumulate which may pose hazardous travel conditions during the morning commute. Though, efficient snowfall accumulation potential should be short-lived with the infiltration of mid-level dry air. Nevertheless, recent GFS analogs suggest the greatest potential for 2 inches or greater exists for the I-80 corridor and higher elevations, and 4 inches or greater for the highest elevations in WV. To address this potential advisory-level criteria, these counties have been highlighted in the HWO. Guidance suggests a precipitation changeover should occur for lower elevations, including the PGH metro, as veering low level southerly flow ushers in warm enough conditions to support rain. A cold front passage Monday afternoon should diminish remaining precipitation potential through Monday night, with lingering low level moisture beneath a subsidence inversion maintaining mention of flurries.

Picked up 2 inches of fluffy snow from late yesterday afternoon thru this morning.

I think that if things play out we may upgrade to an advisory if rush hour is bad. This is part of the AFD: Bordered this with an advisory for 3-6 inches of accumulation from eastern Westmoreland southwest to Wetzel. 3 inch/12 hour criteria is borderline in this area, but impact to morning commute can also justify this advisory. Would not be surprised if advisory needs a northern expansion as we get closer to the event.

Agreed that these models can't come to an agreement. 1-5 inches is a broad range on the models. For those of you that like the Short term 18 HRRR it looks a little better than most for our area. It looks like there is a first batch of snow that starts after midnight and gives us an inch or two by morning. Then after a break in the morning some more light snow moves in during the afternoon giving us another 1-2 inches. This would give pretty much everyone in Allegheny County 3 inches by tomorrow night. At this point I would be okay with that. I know this model changes hour to hour but I take more faith in this model as we are this close to the storm time. Regardless, snowflakes will be flying most of the day tomorrow so I will enjoy what falls.

At this point I would take this. If it snows for 12 hours at a 1/4 inch per hour that is fine with me. If we over perform and get 3-5 or 4-6 than much better. It’s game time. Let’s go!

Today has been a nice surprise of a day. Snow has been falling and blowing the last 6 hours with winds of 25 mph. These days always amazed me because it is 22 and snowing here and 50 across the state in Philly. That's why I will take our Winter climo over theirs any day.

GFS took a step in the right direction for us. I would be happy with a solid 4-6 for our region.

The Weather Channel is falling into that hype on accumulations by using weather models. 2 Days ago they had potential snowfall totals scrolling across their screen. They had Pittsburgh as 12-18 inches possible by Friday. We all know that long term models always show lots of snow for us. This is going to screw with the average viewer because now they won't believe anything anyone says about snow totals. I know in their case it is about ratings and they are just looking for extremes. I wish they would go back to the old TWC but they never will.

They should all be scared. It is too early to post accumulation amounts. They should use the old forecast from years ago and say ...snow with some accumulation possible. Wait until tomorrow when these models are more in line.

Precip seems to be moving into the south hills. Let’s see if we have any reports from our southern posters. Would still be nice to see a quick burst of snow before the event.

I am heading out at 6:00 for a couple hours. I’ll let you know how it is when I get back.

Yes this NAM run is strange. We will have to wait til tonight or tomorrow to see what is really going on. It has a similar setup on thurs as today but today the low is tracking into West Virginia and Thursday it shows it in the gulf with the precip in pa.

Normally I would be excited about Thursday because it is only 48 hours out but we all know what happened 48 hours before this storm. I say it’s 50/50 storm goes west or east. Let the sweating out of the models begin before this first storm is even over. Maybe we can get some sleet tonight. As bad as we all hate the pinging on the windows I would take that tonight over rain or freezing rain. Hell ....this all beats a cold dry spell waiting for something on the models. Keep bringing these systems on and we’ll take our chances.

Watching closely the 18HRRR for what it's worth but it is trending colder and looks to start as snow around 6:00 tonight. Maybe a little shift that we need.

As much as we have all been disappointed the last 48 hours this mornings heavy snow is good to see. In recent years we would get nothing but a little sleet or ice and change to rain. We could easily pick up a quick 2-4 this morning before it ends. Another positive note....we had 7 inches on the ground and the freezing drizzle put a glaze of ice on our snowpack and now we are putting more snow on top of that. Even with a mix tonight it should do nothing to our snowpack which will keep us cold for later this week. Gotta find the positives. Who knows? Maybe tonight will surprise us.

The old Joe DeNardo rule. Never post accumulation amounts until 24-48 hours before the storm. It is the smart thing to do.

A batch of heavier snow about to move in.

That 7 inch line cuts right across the 422 on the 18hrrr,

Maybe tomorrow’s miss will be Thursday’s hit.