snowfan789

Are you thinking above snowfall overall for the CO mountains? Your outlook suggests that in places but not so much in others. I honestly care way less about the Front Range than mountains because it’s more relevant to water supply, ski season, fire danger, etc. I’m not particularly optimistic for west of the divide north of the San Juans but would love to be wrong. 1982-83 was a great season for a lot of the West, I believe. 2009-10 not so much, among other analogs.

Appreciate the time and effort you clearly put into this. Your outlook last year was really solid overall so I have been looking forward to this year’s. Quick question - Part of your outlook suggests dry and mild for parts of Colorado but then another suggests normal to about 130% of normal snowfall for the same area. I’m having a little trouble seeing how both could be true. What are your thoughts on that?

That “ideal” winter weather pretty much exactly describes what seems to be typical where I now live, in the mountains at about 7000’ near Glenwood Springs. Personally, much prefer the weather here to the Front Range (fairly reliable snow cover from December thru March), though even Front Range at least along and west of I25 is way better from a snow lovers’ perspective than 90%+ of where most people live in the U.S. We have more way reliable/consistent four seasons here. Even so, nearly all of January and the first half of February was almost oppressively unrelentingly sunny and dry. Snow just didn’t melt that much because of consistent chill (not really that cold however). If you really love snow but don’t love cold and like CO, seems as though somewhere like Clark, CO might be your dream spot. Lots of CO, even many near-mountain spots, seems vulnerable to extended periods of dryness.

Am fortunate to have recently relocated from the Front Range to near Glenwood Springs. Live higher up near Sunlight at about 7000’ . Looks like we may actually see rain today (hopefully not after today) but longer term forecast looks promising. Have probably got 6-8” of settled snowpack right now.

Almost 100% snow since early September, though that sounds more impressive than it is, in a sense, as it has been abnormally dry and not particularly cold either, with a very few exceptions. We’re generally well below average at this point in the Front Range for seasonal snowfall.

Well, some models at some times recently have shown a bit more promise in the Front Range for the next system. Others -- like the GFS -- not so much, generally. Seems like a lot of possibilities remain on the table currently. On a different note, where in AZ and NM may finish December with above average precip? The state of the snowpack is pretty bad throughout most of the West, and downright terrible in much of AZ and NM. https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Actually, I think based on what I’ve seen that Utah may be in for a snowy stretch starting soon. But it has been very dry in the West lately, so there’s a lot of making up to do re: snowpack. I think pretty much everywhere is requiring reservations to ski, so I definitely recommend checking on that before traveling anywhere.

Finnster, here’s a pretty detailed article on the so-called Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) https://weatherwest.com/archives/5982. While the RRR is generally very bad for places like California, a western trough that’s too deep and too far west can be less than ideal for us here in CO, especially on the east side of the Rockies. Along the Front Range, we often seem to do best with a trough that’s centered east of CA, along with some blocking in the Atlantic (negative NAO).

Billings has had a lot of snowy years lately. Seems like the storm track is often further north than it used to be.

Yeah, we are in a very dry spell through much of CO, at a typically relatively wet and in some cases white time, no less. If this lasts, that will become an increasingly major problem. Parts of the State have had good to great snow years but a lot of the State is already in varying degrees of drought. We need moisture to return soon.

It take guts to put out a winter forecast and I salute you for that and the related detailed analysis. But I think it’s important to honestly grade oneself at the end too. The reality is that the mountains throughout the West have generally had an ok but not great snow year, the Front Range of CO had a good to phenomenal snow year, and most points east of there had a mediocre to historically bad snow year. Meanwhile, here’s your forecast: I don’t mean to be a troll but think accountability is important for everyone who,, to your credit, tries to predict the weather. Anyway, hope you’re right about the action to come.

Got about 3.5” a bit south of Golden (and a little higher elevation than Golden).

Thanks for sharing. Appreciate the detailed analysis, as usual. Selfishly, I hope you’re wrong for the CO Front Range. I think our chances of an at least decently snowy spring are higher than your outlook indicates. Generally, snowy falls here are followed by roughly average to well above average snowfall in March and April (May is a crapshoot). Various long range models, for whatever they’re worth, point to an at least somewhat wet March here too (don’t put much stock in long range model forecasts for April and beyond).

About 2.5” in western Lakewood today. That brings our February total up to about 21.5”.

Probably best to just joke about the lack of snow in the CO Front Range during winter, so far, when (I think) it is most fun to have snow because of what just “feels” normal, and because of the low sun angle causing snow to actually stick around. But, seriously, what a historically awful stretch of boring dry weather since late November. The Fall was mostly great; however, this is so far without question the worst winter I’ve experienced since moving to near Denver in 2013. No real cold & incredibly dry. Ugh. Hopefully this is not the new normal.