Stormpc
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Everything posted by Stormpc
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Now the whole Bay effect enhancement has me intrigued. That would be really neat. I think there's going to be two jackpot zones. One either across the lower side of the peninsulas, around Norfolk and Portsmouth to Virginia Beach and the other likely closer to Kitty Hawk down through Columbia, west to Plymouth North Carolina. Just my hunch
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DT has a pretty aggressive map he released a few hours ago
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Looks like it but I don't think I'd want to be south of Kill Devil Hills. I think Nags Head down through Manteo and South toward Hatteras has a chance of mixing with sleet. I was looking earlier/last night and there's a warm nose that gets really close. But if it doesn't and they have ratios, look out. Someone might cash in with 8 in or so. That would be something.
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You also have to love that bay enhancement in Norfolk through chesapeake.
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Everything looks pretty consistent on bringing a 1-5 inch storm into the area from Williamsburg to the south and east. But you never know where these Northern fronto bands end up. There's been a nose of higher reflectivity showing up on most of the meso models streaking from Northeast North Carolina in through the peninsula that has to be watched.
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Serious question. Do they sing Hail to the Redskins? Do they substitute commanders? Or did they scrap the song completely? I haven't watched in years.
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One thing of note. Our temperature and dew point haven't plummeted like areas just west and north. I am at 24/16 with a ripping North wind gusting near 30. Dew points were supposed to be closer to lower single digits but that never happened... unless that dry air filters in here during the next six to eight hours. There won't be much to do to moisten up the column along the coast if this holds tho.
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Everything still moving NW overnight on ALL guidance. Peninsula now in the game for a few inches. Southside in good shape down thru NE NC. Plenty cold for once. Fun overrunning event shaping up.
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I don't pay much attention to Wakefield but they issued a WS watch for the counties along the coast south of Virginia Beach in NC in collaboration with Morehead City which covers the Dare County Outer Banks. 1-3 Currituck...2-5 inland Dare and all OBX beaches S of Corolla. I think that's really bullish. And they issued those after the 12 Z Suite. I see they are calling for up to 1 inch everywhere south of the peninsula and east of Suffolk.
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I've been here since 2018 and have experienced Bay effect flurries two or three times. But they were ust flurries. Nothing ever organized. Locals speak of a few events where they had an inch or two from Bay streamers
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Things are trending better for everyone without a doubt. Would love to see another 75 mile push Northwest to get the entire region. OBX almost looks like a lock to get at least a few inches out of this. Imagine
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Now that would be one heck of an event down here. Almost 3 years to the date January 21/22 of 2022 we had just about 8 in my neighborhood. Totals ranged from 6 in Moyock to 7-9 just south of there and north of Grandy. Stark difference just south of Grandy where it mixed with rain and there was basically nothing
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Per 18Z NAMs looks like the general 1.5 to 4 inches from Norfolk down to Kitty Hawk. Yes it's the NAM but it's something at least. Digital snow is almost as good as the real thing.
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3k is almost a snow storm in southeast Virginia, Northeast North Carolina.
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Another subtle move NW over eastern North Carolina and Southeast VA. Little further expansive with the precept shield. Who knows how much of that would be eaten up by the dry air but at least it's not going the other way.
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Both made pretty good moves. Especially the GFS. Precip was 70 to 100 miles offshore this time yesterday.
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Yeah we need another appreciable bump in the next 24 hours. Still time. There's nothing even going on in the Deep South yet.
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Most globals and meso's are giving us a period of snow. Whether it's 3 hours or 6 it doesn't look like much but maybe a dusting to an inch. We need a good 50 to 75 MI bump to the northwest to get snow in through interior Northeast North Carolina and up the peninsula. Now if I were in Nags Head or Manteo I'd be pretty satisfied with the prospect of getting a solid inch or two.
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Euro ensembles are slightly better but that's grasping. Looks like anywhete not within 30 miles of the Atlantic north of the Albemarle is a big nothing. Still Bears watching for the immediate Virginia Beach down to the Outer Banks but they'd be fortunate to even get that inch. Might be a Nags Head chase for three or four inches.
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Yeah that looks bleak. Almost dead.
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Cold air chasing precip almost NEVER works out. Short range models were wayy to warm. That said, there's no way you can stick a fork in the midweek event at this time when these models can't even get it right 6 to 12 hours in advance. Fun times, win or lose.
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I wouldn't say that at all. You know with these overrunning situations precipitation usually is further north than modeled. Sometimes the best frontogenic banding is also on the far Northern Edge of the precip field. Sometimes you get caught between bands and you are in the screw zone. There's lots of time to watch this. Just need to maintain expectations and come to grips we're not going to get a foot of snow across the board.
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I know it's at long range but the NAMs made an appreciable jump to the northwest with the precip shield for the midweek event. For what it's worth. Maybe we'll start seeing more of a movement back to what we need. Hopefully. Got to stop that bleeding. Same with the last two runs of the EURO. Comparing the 0z and 6z runs. Another tick back to the northwest with the precip fields.
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Nice job @Ric Airport I think we're all hugging the Euro and it's ensembles. Just need one of those to work for all of us
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Its FAR from resolved. The BOMB is no longer in play but a nice event isn't lost, yet. Tomorrow's storm isn't even clear yet. Not over yet! Tuesday night is still a ways away.
