Stormpc
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Everything posted by Stormpc
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And that's fine. I'll take a waa/ overrunning event any day. Probably because the lp was like 1012 on ICON?
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RGEM 2 runs in a row nearly identical with a southside va/NE NC jackpot. but now has big snow waaay south of the Albemarle. Yes, RGEM not a great model/Nam at this range as well. Just pointing out the trends.
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WOW!!! 20 VA BEACH. Crazy. It more than held for us southers... Got me in double digits now.
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18z RGEM is a Hampton Roads / Northeast North Carolina nuke
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We've all seen the NAM make a 200 MI correction in either direction within the span of 6 hours. Especially outside of 60. It's generally worthless until tomorrow night in my opinion However, the reason why we still look at it is because sometimes, in the rare occasion, the outlying solution becomes reality. We only remember it when it does so it skews the perception of it.
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That's a pretty good step to the south and east with snow south of the Va peninsulas. Definitely a step toward the other globals. Might be the most realistic in my opinion. And for us on the south side and Northeast North Carolina it's a good and welcome sight.
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Yes. Even when everything else was suggesting a historic KU event. Still lots of time.
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Some cement to lock in the first few inches after the initial waa thump. That's fine.
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Just 20 more miles SE is all I ask!
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So if you're in Chesapeake or Virginia beach, most models have between 6 and 14 inches but the GFS has zero. Either GFS has control of this situation or is way out to lunch. Time will tell. Anytime you've got locales so close to the coast, any minor agitation upstairs can cause chaos
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GFS looks about the same perhaps slightly Southeast but negligible.
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ICON is a Hampton Roads beat down
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Euro is deadly at mid-range. Let's watch and see if all the other globals and shorter range mesos start falling in line. At least I hope so.
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GFS still produces nothing for Hampton Roads Southside and North Carolina so I'd rather not pay attention except to look for the trends. I'm going to hug the snowiest models and go to sleep. Thank you CMC.
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Well that looks pretty nice. Definitely a step further southeast.
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Do tell!
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Anybody have the GFS ens members? 18z...
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Just took a look through the euro. Well. I don't think it would hurt too much in the Richmond area if this came another 50 miles south? Would you all mind if I can join the party a little bit? Even so I get some on both sides of the mix and end up with 3-6. That would be a huge score.
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GEFS slightly southland push of snow but cut totals a smudge. I like the move. It's not going the other way at least for now
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GFS nice move toward the euro. It almost feels like this is beginning to get locked in. At least the general idea. Vacillating on the southern end is going to be the issue for us. Well for richmond. Not much for me. I don't have much chance in this game but I'm all in on a peninsula and Central Virginia wipe out
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30 of 50 EPS members bury you. Certainly not out of the game.
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Newport News to Williamsburg to lower Eastern Shore special
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GFS another slider that doesn't phase or turn the corner but still gets Richmond and Central parts of Virginia pretty good. More frozen into Hampton Roads from what it looks like. I don't have precipitation Maps yet
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Ensembles are all over the place. From too far north. Too far south. A complete miss. Take that run with a grain of salt.
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Both GFS and Euro have different variations and evolutions of what's going to happen next week on each run. No clue yet. There's going to be something big. From Richmond North is almost a certainty. 6z GFS looks impossible. Euro AI is still offshore.
